It remains to be seen whether Ohio State will break into the top four of the initial College Football Playoff rankings when they're announced tomorrow night.
Thanks to their 39-38 comeback win over No. 2 Penn State Saturday, the Buckeyes moved up to No. 3 in the latest AP Poll. But, with one-loss Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma – not to mention undefeated Wisconsin – lurking just behind the Buckeyes in the poll, it's not safe to assume Ohio State will be in the first batch of four.
After all, the Sooners own a head-to-head win over Ohio State and you can make a strong argument that both Clemson and Notre Dame have more quality wins than the Buckeyes do. Indeed, just two years ago, the Buckeyes were No. 1 in the AP Poll at the time of the first set of rankings, but thanks to lackluster play, debuted at No. 3 on the CFP side.
One system that really likes Ohio State, however, is FiveThirtyEight's college football prediction model.
The model has the Buckeyes with the second-best chance to make the playoff at 57%, just behind Alabama at 66%. Likewise, the Buckeyes trail only the Crimson Tide, 27% to 19%, in the model's odds to win the national championship. Further, they have Ohio State at a 48% chance of winning out, the best of any of their top 10 teams.
| Team | Conference | AP | ELO | FPI | Wins Conf. | Makes CFP | Wins Title | Win Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALABAMA | SEC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 66% | 27% | 33% |
| OHIO STATE | BIG TEN | 3 | 5 | 2 | 64% | 57% | 19% | 48% |
| GEORGIA | SEC | 2 | 2 | 5 | 39% | 51% | 13% | 17% |
| CLEMSON | ACC | 6 | 3 | 6 | 42% | 38% | 8% | 30% |
| WISCONSIN | BIG TEN | 4 | 7 | 10 | 33% | 32% | 6% | 18% |
| OKLAHOMA | BIG 12 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 35% | 25% | 6% | 20% |
| WASHINGTON | PAC-12 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 38% | 24% | 5% | 28% |
| NOTRE DAME | INDEPENDENT | 5 | 6 | 4 | – | 20% | 4% | 35% |
| MIAMI | ACC | 9 | 4 | 16 | 29% | 16% | 2% | 8% |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | BIG 12 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 27% | 15% | 3% | 15% |
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The model uses past College Football Playoff selection committee behavior, and an Elo-based rating system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams. Full Methodology |
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Should Ohio State win out, they're a virtual lock to make the College Football Playoff, with their chances jumping to 97% in the FiveThirtyEight model. Things look great for Ohio State under various permutations of other teams also winning out with the exception of Oklahoma, where the model sees OSU's chance to make the CFP fall to 91%.
The takeaway? Ohio State fans shouldn't freak out if their team debuts at No. 5 or even No. 6 in the initial set of College Football Playoff rankings. Win out, and things will fall into place, as they normally do.
