Once upon a time it seemed Ohio State's playoff chances were extinguished.
Now, the Buckeyes have a puncher's chance of making the four-team field if they can handle the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday night in Indianapolis, claiming the B1G title in the process.
It won't be an easy task. Many doubt Wisconsin's resume – and that's fair – but too things suggest this one will be a dogfight, in my mind at least.
Most notably, Ohio State has concerns at quarterback after J.T. Barrett underwent minor knee surgery this week though Urban Meyer says he'll play. And yes, Dwayne Haskins looked solid during the comeback over Michigan but being potentially unsettled at the most important position in football isn't likely a great thing.
So how does it play out? What facets of Wisconsin's game pose the most cause for concern?
For answers to those questions and more we welcome staffers James, Johnny and Andrew Ellis to the 11W B1G championship roundtable.
Ohio State survived Michigan thanks to a 17-0 blitz to end the game but it wasn’t the prettiest performance we’ve seen. What take away from that game concerns you most as you think about the matchup with Wisconsin?
Andrew: I never felt like Ohio State was going to lose that one, but the most troubling takeaway was probably the play-calling. There was a serious lack of a running game early on, and I’ve pretty much had enough of the designed QB draws. J.T. will bust a big one every now and then, but it’s just gotten way too predictable for my liking. Obviously J.T. is the starter, but when Haskins was in I actually appreciated the handoffs to our talented tailbacks. It’s like the staff knows that Barrett is the more talented runner so when he was out of the game they decided to **GASP** give the ball to J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber a bit more.
On a similar note, the Badgers have the No. 1 running defense in America, so any type of movement on the ground could be a bit of a chore. I’ve been impressed with Wisconsin’s defense and Jonathan Taylor is going to be a problem for the Big Ten for the next two years. The Buckeyes need to take Taylor out of the game and force Alex Hornibrook out of his comfort zone. His comfort zone basically involves handing the football to Taylor so I’d venture to guess Ohio State will be focused on stopping that ground attack.
Johnny: We've seen this again and again and again, but the constant tendency to move away from relaying on anyone other than J.T. Barrett to run the ball in close games is maddening. It worked, sort of, against Michigan, but the problem is that even if it does work it shortens the games considerably when that's the opposite of what you want to have happen. J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber are both very, very good, and to think of them as a bug rather than a feature of the offense is weird and counterproductive.
James: That Ohio State still struggles to cover the tight ends. Michigan's tight ends are solid, but they are nowhere near as good as Troy Fumagalli, who was named the top tight end in the country Thursday morning. He is a matchup nightmare, especially in one-on-one coverage and could give the Buckeye linebackers a ton of problems if they aren't prepared.
The Buckeye rushing offense put up 226 yards versus Michigan – the most the Wolverines gave up all year – but it took 66 yards rushing on the final possession to keep Ohio State from having its worst output of the season. Is that a cause for concern as we look ahead to Wisconsin who statistically boasts the nation’s No. 1 rushing defense giving up 80.5 yards per game? Why or why not?
James: If Ohio State stays committed to its running backs, then I don't think this should be a cause for concern. Especially with Barrett playing on an injured knee, I think Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins are going to get plenty of opportunities. I think that, mixed in with a reduced number of carries for Barrett, will help set up the play action pass game nicely.
Johnny: Yeah, it is, because of the reasons that I mentioned above. The coaching staff has to be willing to put up with a few low-to-negative rushing attempts from Weber or Dobbins in order for them to find their rhythm in the second, third, and fourth quarters. J.T. running inside or on a zone read will reliably get you four yards, but if even if he ends up starting, he's going to be gimpy. It's dumb to put that kind of pressure on Barrett when there are more viable options. Wisconsin may be somewhat overhyped as a defense, but it doesn't take a genius to defend that.
Andrew: It’s a slight cause for concern, but I think as long as the play-calling improves then it shouldn’t be too big of an issue. The Badgers are always a disciplined defense and they’ve certainly been just that in 2017. But you also have to take a step back and consider the schedule they've played. I will say that holding Iowa to just 25 rushing yards was extremely impressive, but I feel like the Buckeyes will be able to move the ball as long as they let Dobbins and Weber do their thing. Mixing in some designed QB runs is okay, but it shouldn’t be the focal point of the offense. I’m usually not a huge fan of the little WR screens, but Kevin Wilson may need to dial a few up just to keep some defenders out of the box.
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Conversely, Ohio State’s rush defense held Michigan to 100 yards on the day including just 17 in the second half on 1.0 yards per carry. That said, Wisconsin’s rush offense is at another level than Michigan’s as the Badgers rank No. 18 in the land with 243 yards per game on the back of Jonathan Taylor’s 150.5 yards per game. Can Ohio State slow down Taylor on the ground? What do you expect to see from the Silver Bullets?
Andrew: I think Ohio State can slow him down and I think it has to in order to win this one. Alex Hornibrook is more of a game manager, so forcing him to make plays may be the biggest key on Saturday night. My feeling is that the Buckeyes hold Taylor to about 80-100 yards, get up early, and then put the ball in Hornibrook’s hands. It will be a tall task, but that absolutely should be the game plan.
James: Wisconsin has faced a defensive line like Ohio State's, especially one that can rotate as many as 10 players up front. Conversely, this will be the best overall offensive line the Buckeyes have faced all season. Per usual, this game will be won in the trenches. I like Ohio State's chances here because of its athleticism and depth.
Johnny: Jonathan Taylor has put together one of the quietest 1800 yard rushing campaigns in college football history. That he's gotten almost no Heisman consideration is ridiculous (and probably a result of him being unfairly overshadowed by Saquon Barkley), because unlike Weber and Dobbins, the freshman Taylor has had to shoulder almost the entire Wisconsin rushing attack all by himself.
Taylor has averaged 21.5 carries a game, and the only time that either Dobbins and Weber had that many carries in a game for Ohio State was Dobbins' 29 carries against Indiana in the first game of the season. Simply put, Taylor is a tough, capable back capable of carrying an offense by himself. Ohio State will likely key on him to force the Badgers to beat them with Hornibrook's passing, but don't be shocked if the Silver Bullets are unable to shut Taylor down.
J.T. Barrett completed just 3 of 8 passes against Michigan to go along with 67 yards rushing as the Buckeye offense had five 3-and-outs in eight total possessions with Barrett at the controls. It’s unclear how much the knee injury played a part in his performance. What kind of night do you expect from Barrett and the OSU passing offense against Wisconsin? If things start to go south and assuming Barrett’s health isn’t an issue, would you insert Dwayne Haskins at any point? Why or why not?
Johnny: If Barrett can't pass the ball, then yeah, I'd definitely yank him for Haskins. Him being hurt would be a nice cover for a pretty callous decision on my part to try and make the Ohio State offense more efficient due to the decisions of the coaching staff while Barrett is in the game. But stretching this hypothetical scenario out to its logical conclusion, I probably would call plays that allowed J.T. to show whether or not he's capable of passing the ball in the first quarter, rather than waiting until the end of the game to see if he can do it consistently. It's ridiculous that the Ohio State offense feels more efficient without Barrett, not always because of his play, but because of the way the offense is called in his absence.
But regardless, neither of those things are going to happen. J.T. will stay in the game as long as his lower leg is still attached to his body with even the thinnest strand of sinew or tendon.
Andrew: I’m obviously hoping Barrett is 100 percent on Saturday, but at the same time I’m hoping last weekend’s situation forces the staff to do things differently on offense. Use the running game (Weber and Dobbins) to open up some of the passing lanes and maybe take a few shots over the top. I can see J.T. putting together a solid showing, but I am really thinking/hoping that the running backs do the bulk of the work; even in a tough matchup. I can see Barrett throwing for about 200 with a couple touchdowns. No huge stat line, but a solid passing performance with a rushing score sprinkled in as well. And no, I wouldn’t insert Dwayne Haskins at any point. I’m a huge Haskins fan and he can make every throw, but this just isn’t the time.
James: The minute Barrett doesn't look himself, especially running the ball, you have to put Haskins in. You can't put your entire season in the hands of an injured quarterback, no matter how good he has been for the program. We have seen this before. A less-than-healthy Braxton Miller in the 2014 Orange Bowl probably wasn't as good in the closing minutes as a healthy Kenny Guiton would have been. If Barrett is cleared, he is the guy to start. But the minute something goes wrong, you have to go with Haskins who has shown promise and confidence this season.
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Denzel Ward was outstanding against Michigan and is obviously in his last season at the collegiate level. How does he stack up against other Buckeye corners under Urban Meyer? Give us your top five and justify Ward’s position.
James: Denzel Ward is probably No. 2 on my list, right behind Marshon Lattimore. Behind Lattimore and Ward, I would go with Bradley Roby, Eli Apple and Gareon Conley. Roby was a freak athlete, but had a tendency to take plays off and was really inconsistent at times (remember Jared Abbredaris?). I go with Apple over Conley strictly because of the 2014 Michigan State game, when a hobbled Apple was significantly better than a healthy Conley. I think Ward is going to be a top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL draft and his speed is what makes him elite.
Andrew: Ward is far and away the most important player on Ohio State’s defense. Hell he may be the most important player on the entire team. He’s pretty much great at everything and it’s been a joy to watch him this season. If you’re an opposing team and you’re consistently targeting Ward instead of Arnette or Sheffield, then your head coach or offensive coordinator probably should be fired.
1. Lattimore 2. Ward 3. Roby 4. Conley 5. Apple
Ward is the fastest of the three and I love that he plays with a little bit of fire. The special teams play is an added bonus as well. Maybe I’m low on Apple since he’s really struggled in the NFL, but I think the other four were/are better players in college. I’m tempted to flip Roby and Conley due to the former’s controversial absence in the Orange Bowl. It wasn’t fun watching Sammy Watkins catch 50 passes with him on the sideline. Lattimore was elite in college and he’s already elite at the next level.
Johnny: Denzel Ward has evolved into a really good player, but I wonder why he hasn't found his place in our consciousness like guys named Roby, Apple, Conley, Lattimore, or even Doran Grant. Okay, maybe not Grant. Ward is probably a tier below the likes of Roby and Lattimore in terms of their college careers, but he's been really great for a secondary that 100% needs a lock down corner to cover up deficiencies in other parts of the secondary.
Same question but now with the safeties. Give us your top five safeties of the Urban Meyer era. Does Damon Webb or more likely Jordan Fuller, even with limited games, make the cut? Briefly defend your list.
Johnny: Malik Hooker, Vonn Bell, gigantic canyon, Christian Bryant, another giant canyon, and then maybe Fuller or Tyvis Powell (who started out really poorly but became pretty good).
James: 1. Malik Hooker, 2. Vonn Bell, 3. C.J. Bryant 4. Tyvis Powell, 5. Jordan Fuller.
The first two are obvious choices, but I really think C.J. Bryant would have been a stud in 2013 had he not been injured in the Wisconsin game. If I remember correctly, Urban Meyer was close to tears when Bryant sustained that injury. He could have been a stud, and it was clear how much that unit missed him the rest of the season. I think Fuller has a very bright future at Ohio State, and I expect him to have a breakout 2018 season.
Andrew: Damon Webb doesn’t make the cut. He’s made some plays and certainly hasn’t been the worst of the Meyer Era, but it seems like he’s been out of position a lot, so he’s definitely behind several other guys. Fuller has been pretty dang good in his first year as a starter. The future is bright there.
1. Hooker 2. Bell 3. Fuller 4. Bryant 5. Powell
Hooker obviously was one of the best we’ve ever seen even in his limited action. Ball-hawking safeties aren’t easy to find, and he was elite when it came to covering ground and forcing turnovers. Bell was really good and his coverage skills were pretty dang good for a safety. Fuller and Bryant are pretty interchangeable for me right now, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the former end up in the top two before all is said and done. Loved Tyvis Powell and he meant a lot to the team, but i’ve got him in the back end of my top five.
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If this season ended today, who are your four playoff teams? What was the deciding factor specifically as you decided on your final team over the fifth team?
Andrew: 1. Oklahoma 2. Clemson 3. Auburn 4. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is unbeaten, so I have to put them in over the likes of Miami, Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State. I’m fully aware that the Badgers haven’t exactly played anyone, but they haven’t lost a game either. Auburn has lost twice but they’ve got two of the more impressive wins of the season. Clemson has the bad loss to Syracuse, but the win over Auburn is looking better each week. Oklahoma has one loss and its defense is a concern, but they also handled Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and TCU.
James: 1. Clemson, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is in strictly because they are undefeated. For no other reason. With one loss, they are out of the top-10 in my opinion. I think Clemson and Oklahoma are playing at a really high level right now and if Alabama doesn't make the playoff, then Clemson is my favorite to win it all. I also think the Sooners can score 30+ on anyone in the country, which leads me to believe they could beat anyone on a neutral field.
Johnny: Today, before the championship games, I'd put in the top four currently in the rankings. The committee has done a pretty good job so far in a really chaotic season, and Alabama is essentially Wisconsin with a loss.
Ohio State enters the B1G championship game as a 5.5-point favorite over the Badgers. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and player to watch.
Johnny: I think Ohio State loses this game. A slow start will doom them, and I don't have enough confidence in the playcalling or J.T.'s knee right now for them to keep up with a team powered by a great rushing attack and my personal worst nightmare for the Buckeye defense: a semi-competent quarterback with a really, really good tight end and a propensity to chuck it over the heads of linebackers. Wisconsin isn't a great team, but in a year without any truly great teams, sometimes going undefeated and not giving up 55 points to Iowa is enough to impress me. The bad guys win this, 35-24.
Andrew: Yes the Buckeyes win and yes the Buckeyes cover. I’ve got Ohio State by a score of 42-24, and hopefully that’s enough to impress the committee. Parris Campbell has been quiet lately and I always hold my breath when the ball is heading in his direction, but he’s my player to watch on Saturday night.
James: I have the Buckeyes winning a close one, 31-27. Again, the game will be won in the trenches. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage wins this one. I am curious to see how Isaiah Prince plays, as he struggled mightily against the Badgers last year. Maintaining a clean pocket for either a hobbled J.T. Barrett or an inexperienced Dwayne Haskins will be key.
