For the second time in four years, Ohio State is set to play Wisconsin with a conference title, and potentially a College Football Playoff berth, on the line in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.
Ohio State’s 2017 regular season could certainly be described as turbulent. The Buckeyes lost their first home game of the year to Oklahoma. They suffered a humiliating, 55-24 loss at Iowa. Just last week, they needed a backup quarterback to win their rivalry game at Michigan.
Yet the Buckeyes (10-2, 8-1 Big Ten) still have a chance to win their conference championship – a feat they have achieved only once, despite their many other accomplishments, in the Urban Meyer era – and possibly even make the playoff, much like they did in 2014, if they can beat Wisconsin again.
Chances are good, though, that winning another Big Ten title won’t come nearly as easily as it did for the 2014 eventual national champions, when the Buckeyes beat the Badgers in a 59-0 romp.
 |
| WISCONSIN BADGERS |
|
12-0, 9-0 B1G ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
|
|
|
8:17 P.M. – SATURDAY, DEC. 2 LUCAS OIL STADIUM INDIANAPOLIS, IND. |
|
|
|
FOX FOX SPORTS GO |
This year’s Badgers (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) enter the Big Ten Championship Game with the only undefeated record in a Power 5 conference and the Football Bowl Subdivision’s No. 1-ranked defense in yards allowed per game. That makes the No. 4-ranked Badgers – unlike the No. 8-ranked Buckeyes, whose playoff hopes lie in whether a win over Wisconsin is enough to move them ahead of Alabama – a virtual lock to make the playoff if they win on Saturday.
Even so, Wisconsin enters Saturday’s game as an underdog, in part because none of its wins have come against teams currently ranked in the top 20 of the CFP standings – making Ohio State the best team the Badgers have played all season.
On the other hand, though, the Buckeyes have lost – and convincingly – to the only team they played that is currently ranked ahead of Wisconsin (Oklahoma) and the team that is most similar stylistically to Wisconsin (Iowa). So if the Buckeyes are going to beat the Badgers and win a conference title for their second time in four years, they are going to need to be at their best – or at least much better than they were in those games.
Wisconsin Breakdown
While Wisconsin hasn’t played any world-beaters this season, the Badgers have consistently taken care of business – unlike Ohio State and many of the nation’s other top teams that have at least one bad loss of their records – winning every one of their games by more than seven points.
That effort has been led by the dominant play of Wisconsin’s defense, which has held 11 of its 12 opponents to 17 points or less and 10 of its 12 opponents to less than 300 yards, never allowing more than 24 points or 381 yards in any game this season. The Badgers rank first in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per game (80.5) and second in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game (156.4).
Ohio State center Billy Price is among those who are impressed by what they’ve seen from the Badgers defense on film.
"They are undefeated for that reason itself: They play great defense," Price said. "They’re very technically sound, gap-sound and they don’t give up big plays."
Like many of the defenses that Ohio State faced early this season, Wisconsin’s defense plays primarily in an odd front. The Badgers are anchored by a solid defensive line up front, with second-team All-Big Ten defensive ends Alec James and Conor Sheehy flanking 346-pound nose tackle Olive Sagapolu.
The star of Wisconsin’s defense is first-team All-Big Ten linebacker T.J. Edwards, an athletic playmaker in both run defense and coverage who is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss (11) and interceptions (four) and ranks second on the team in total tackles (67). Wisconsin’s other top playmakers at linebacker include Garret Dooley, who leads the team with 7.5 sacks, and Ryan Connelly, who leads the team with 71 total tackles.
Meyer is impressed by what he’s seen from Wisconsin’s linebackers, and he isn’t surprised that he’s been impressed.
"I can't remember ever playing Wisconsin without elite linebackers," said Meyer, who is preparing for his fifth game against the Badgers as Ohio State’s coach.
T.J. Edwards is the star among Wisconsin's linebackers, who have excelled again this year. Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports
Wisconsin also has an impressive crop of playmakers in its secondary, led by two more first-team All-Big Ten players in cornerback Nick Nelson, who leads all FBS players with 20 pass breakups this season, and D’Cota Dixon, who ranks third on the Badgers with 51 total tackles from his strong safety spot. Nelson has had opportunities to break up passes because of the strong coverage provided opposite him from fellow starting cornerback Derrick Tindal, while free safety Natrell Jamerson has also been a key playmaker for the Badgers, racking up 44 total tackles and 12 passes defended (two interceptions).
All of that said, the asterisk on Wisconsin’s defensive dominance is that the Badgers have faced only one offense – Florida Atlantic – that ranks in the FBS’ top 50 in total offense. Considering that FAU has accumulated its overall statistics by beating up on Conference USA defenses, Ohio State’s offense will easily be the most explosive offense it has faced all year.
Ohio State’s passing offense is the most statistically prolific that Wisconsin will have faced this season, while only FAU’s run-heavy offense has had more rushing yards per game, so the Badgers defense will have to be at its best this week to continue its dominance.
As well as Wisconsin’s defense has played, its offense has been productive too, as the Badgers have averaged exactly four offensive touchdowns per game (the Badgers also have five defensive touchdowns and a punt return touchdown by Nelson this season) while making exactly one field goal in each of their first 12 games.
As has often been the case for the Badgers, especially over the past two decades, Wisconsin’s offense is led by a star running back and a strong offensive line.
The newest star running back at Wisconsin is Jonathan Taylor, who won seven consecutive Big Ten Freshman of the Week awards (and was named Freshman of the Year on Thursday) to end the regular season and leads the Big Ten this year with 258 carries for a whopping 1,806 yards.
At 5-foot-11 and 214 pounds, Taylor has demonstrated an impressive package of speed, strength and agility that has led to immediate and consistent success running the football in his first year as a Badger.
In preparing to play against Taylor this week, Ohio State linebacker Chris Worley said Taylor doesn’t look like a first-year player.
"He definitely has the feel of like a veteran running back," Worley said. "He’s a strong, powerful runner and once he gets going in a straight line, he can definitely make a lot of guys miss. So he doesn’t run like a freshman, and it’s going to be a task to get him on the ground."
Jonathan Taylor ranks third among all FBS players with 1,806 rushing yards. Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports
Up front, the Badgers feature a massive offensive line on which all five starters weigh in at 315 pounds or more. Worley says the Buckeyes aren’t concerned about the size of Wisconsin’s offensive line, but he says they do expect a big challenge from the Badgers’ front five because of their talent.
"They have a great offensive line, and the thing that they do well is they finish their blocks," Worley said. "This is definitely going to be the best offensive line that we’ve faced all year."
While Alex Hornibrook has played well enough for the Badgers to win all 12 of their games this season, he isn’t a spectacular passer, and he has had issues with turning the ball over, throwing 13 interceptions. The Badgers are also lacking in proven playmakers at the wide receiver position after Quintez Cephus, who still leads the team with 501 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns, suffered a season-ending leg injury in the Badgers’ ninth game of the year against Indiana.
Wisconsin does have a first-team All-Big Ten tight end, however, in Troy Fumagalli, who could pose a major threat over the middle of the field to an Ohio State defense that has struggled to defend tight ends all season.
Buckeye Breakdown
Although Ohio State played well enough in its first 12 games to win the Big Ten East and earn a berth in the conference championship game, the Buckeyes still face major questions on both sides of the ball entering this game.
 |
 |
|||
| OFFENSE | ||||
| 43.8 | 5th | POINTS FOR | 34.8 | 26th |
| 250.3 | 13th | RUSHING OFFENSE | 243.3 | 18th |
| 279.5 | 27th | PASSING OFFENSE | 182.8 | 97th |
| 529.8 | 4th | TOTAL OFFENSE | 426.0 | 42nd |
| .497 | 4th | 3rd DOWNS | .506 | 2nd |
| .889 | 29th | RED ZONE | .852 | 62nd |
| DEFENSE | ||||
| 19.8 | 20th | POINTS ALLOWED | 12.0 | 2nd |
| 112.8 | 13th | RUSH DEFENSE | 80.5 | 1st |
| 179.0 | 15th | PASS DEFENSE | 156.4 | 2nd |
| 114.5 | 24th | PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE | 94.2 | 1st |
| 291.8 | 8th | TOTAL DEFENSE | 236.9 | 1st |
| .322 | 18th | 3rd DOWNS | .288 | 7th |
| .788 | 30th | RED ZONE | .700 | 5th |
| SPECIAL TEAMS | ||||
| 4.4 | 114th | PUNT RETURN | 9.0 | 44th |
| 24.2 | 18th | KICKOFF RETURN | 21.2 | 66th |
| 40.8 | 17th | NET PUNTING | 36.4 | 103rd |
| MISCELLANEOUS | ||||
| + 0.3 | 48th | TURNOVER MARGIN | + 0.2 | 57th |
| 7.4 | 110th | PENALTIES | 5.5 | 44th |
| 8 | EDGE | 10 | ||
Offensively, of course, the big question for the Buckeyes is whether starting quarterback J.T. Barrett will be healthy enough to play, and if he does play, whether he will be limited. Meyer said Thursday that Barrett has been cleared to play, so it is expected that No. 16 will take the field when the Buckeyes offense takes the field on Saturday. That said, Tim May of the Columbus Dispatch reported Thursday that Barrett underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on Sunday, leaving reason to doubt that Barrett will be at full speed just six days later.
If Barrett ends up being unable to start or finish the game, Ohio State’s quarterback duties would be taken over by redshirt freshman backup Dwayne Haskins, who impressively led the Buckeyes to a comeback victory over Michigan last week.
Ohio State’s 2014 win over Wisconsin was a breakout game for Cardale Jones, in the first start of his Buckeye career after J.T. Barrett suffered a season-ending ankle injury against Michigan one week before that game, and Barrett’s most recent injury opens the door of possibility that Haskins could make his first start or at least be the quarterback the Buckeyes need to get another win over the Badgers on Saturday.
Barrett’s injury will force Wisconsin to prepare for the possibility of facing either quarterback, but Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said the Badgers would prepare this week with the expectation that they would face the three-time Big Ten Quarterback of the Year.
"We are going to prepare for Ohio State’s best, and we know we’re going to get that, and we’re not going to try and play a guessing game," Chryst said. "We believe (J.T.)’s going to play."
Regardless of whether Barrett plays at less than full speed or Haskins ends up playing in his place, the starting quarterback’s injury will likely influence the Buckeyes to lean heavily on their tailback running game, as Barrett will likely be limited as a runner while Haskins is more of a passer than a runner.
The question of whether an injury-plagued Barrett or a still inexperienced Haskins can make enough plays against an elite defense for the Buckeyes to win this game is a legitimate one. Ultimately, though, the possibility of giving the ball more often to the running backs is a strategy that could end up helping Ohio State’s chances, as the one-two punch of J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber and the Buckeyes offensive line have done an excellent job making plays and moving the chains in the ground game.
Defensively, the big question for the Buckeyes is whether they will be able to cover Fumagalli and Wisconsin’s other tight ends, considering the troubles Ohio State had with keeping tight ends covered this season. Those struggles were big factors in the Buckeyes’ losses to Oklahoma and Iowa, and could have cost the Buckeyes again last week if Michigan had a healthy quarterback who could hit wide open targets over the middle of the field with any consistency.
While Hornibrook has had some issues of his own, he’s still a much better quarterback than John O’Korn, and capable of making the Buckeyes pay if they are unable to fix the issues they have had – especially with their linebackers – with keeping non-wide receivers covered this year.
Taylor and the Wisconsin running game certainly pose a significant threat, too, but the Buckeyes have been mostly successful in keeping opposing running backs – most notably the Big Ten’s other top running back, Penn State’s Saquon Barkley, who they held to 44 yards on 21 carries – in check, as the Buckeyes rank 13th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (112.8) and ninth in the FBS in yards allowed per carry (3.1).
"Their defense stands out," Chryst said of Ohio State’s defense. "They got really good players, and I think it’s a heck of a scheme. It looks like they’ve got confidence, and they know what they’re doing. They play fast, and they challenge you in so many different areas."
Despite Wisconsin’s success this season, Ohio State should be capable of beating the Badgers, and potentially even winning big, which it might need to do to convince the College Football Playoff committee it deserves a spot in the field of four. Whether the Buckeyes win this game at all, however, will depend on how effectively their offense can run without a fully healthy Barrett and whether their defense can avoid the same pitfalls – particularly in pass coverage – that cost them in their previous losses this year.
How It Plays Out
While the 2014 Big Ten Championship Game might provide a lens into what’s possible if everything goes the Buckeyes’ way on Saturday, a similarly dominant performance in this year’s game isn’t what should be expected going in.
Although Ohio State’s national championship hopes might not be dead yet, the Buckeyes haven’t looked to be the same caliber of team this year that they were three years ago. Granted, the Buckeyes didn’t look like a national championship team going into this game three years ago either, but although there have been many parallels between this season and that season, it would still be a leap of faith to predict a repeat performance.
| Year | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Madison, Wis. | Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 23 |
| 2014 | Indianapolis, Ind. | Ohio State 59, Wisconsin 0 |
| 2013 | Columbus, Ohio | Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 24 |
| 2012 | Madison, Wis. | Ohio State 21, Wisconsin 14 |
| 2011 | Columbus, Ohio | Ohio State 33, Wisconsin 29 |
Wisconsin was a solid football team going into the 2014 game, holding a 10-2 record, but those Badgers weren’t on the precipice of making the College Football Playoff like these Badgers. Considering the way the Badgers have repeatedly taken care of business all season long, it would come as a big surprise if they proved to be an easy pushover in this game.
That’s not to say the Badgers aren’t a beatable team. With some underwhelming wins on their resume, like beating Illinois by only 14 and beating Purdue by only eight, they certainly appear to be. But with a defense that has been consistently tough and a solid offense anchored by a consistently productive running game, Wisconsin appears positioned to be much more competitive in the second Big Ten Championship Game between the Buckeyes and Badgers.
The Buckeyes, though, say they are looking forward to the challenge.
"It couldn’t have come at a better time, because at this time of the year, everyone’s been getting better … and at this time of the year, you don’t want to just face teams that don’t present a challenge against you," Worley said. “So this is going to be a great challenge for us as a team, and it’s going to be a battle inside and out. And at this time of the year, that’s what you want."
ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 24
