The winner of the annual game between Ohio State and Penn State has gone on to win the Big Ten in each of the past two years.
At the least, the winner of this year’s game will be positioned as the conference’s early frontrunner.
Entering Saturday night’s game at Penn State’s Beaver Stadium, Ohio State is ranked fourth in both major polls while Penn State is ranked ninth, and both teams are 4-0.
When Saturday night’s game ends, the winner will be the Big Ten’s only remaining unbeaten team.
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4-0 (1-0) ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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7:44 P.M. – SATURDAY, SEPT. 29 BEAVER STADIUM UNIVERSITY PARK, PENNSYLVANIA |
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ABC WatchESPN |
It’s still early in the year to be discussing implications, of course, as it’s still September. We haven’t even reached the halfway point of the regular season yet. That said, whichever team wins Saturday’s game will clear what should be one of the biggest hurdles in its chances to win the Big Ten East – while also thrusting itself into the early College Football Playoff discussion – and whoever loses will no longer control its own chances to earn a berth in the conference championship game.
Even if there were no greater implications to Saturday’s game, though, it would still be one of the most anticipated games of the year for both teams because of how great the last two matchups have been between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.
In 2016, Penn State scored 17 fourth-quarter points, including a 60-yard field goal block return by Grant Haley for the game-winning score, to upset Ohio State for a 24-21 win in University Park – a statement win that re-established the Nittany Lions as a contender in the Big Ten, which they’ve continued to be since.
Ohio State turned the tables last season, however, as J.T. Barrett threw three fourth-quarter passes to lead the Buckeyes to a 39-38 comeback win in an instant classic at Ohio Stadium.
Now, the Buckeyes will return to Beaver Stadium – where Penn State is planning for a White Out crowd once again – and look to come away with a victory in the biggest game of the season to date for the Big Ten and both teams.
Buckeye Breakdown
Through his first four games as Ohio State’s starting quarterback, there’s been nothing but good things to say about Dwayne Haskins.
He’s been spectacular so far this season, completing more than 75 percent of his passes (87-of-115) for 1,194 yards and 16 touchdowns with only one interception.
Saturday night could be his toughest test yet, as he starts his first-ever true road game – though he did lead the Buckeyes to a comeback win on the road in relief of Barrett at Michigan last season – in one of college football’s toughest road environments.
Haskins and his coaches and teammates, though, are confident he’ll be up to the task just as he has been all year.
“I think you saw last year (at Michigan) how he handled a big situation last year in a big stage,” offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson said this week. “He’s ready to play well every week, and when called upon, he's answered the bell.”
Haskins won’t be the only key player on Ohio State’s offense who has to prove he can handle a tough road environment in a new role on Saturday. Left tackle Thayer Munford will also be making his first start in a true road game, and he’ll be looking to fare better than Isaiah Prince did as a first-year starter at Penn State two years ago. Michael Jordan, who admitted that he let the pressure of playing in a big game get into his head as he struggled with his snaps against TCU, will need to handle the pressure better in his first true road game in his new position of center.
Outside of Jordan’s snap issues against the Horned Frogs, though, all of those players have performed great this season, and they have plenty of experienced talent around them, including J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber at running back, a deep group of receivers led by K.J. Hill and Parris Campbell and Prince leading an offensive line that James Franklin believes is Ohio State’s best since he became Penn State’s head coach in 2014.
Together, they have formed arguably the best offense in the country so far this year, ranking second in the Football Bowl Subdivision in points scored per game (54.5) and third in yards gained per game (599). And the Nittany Lions know trying to slow that offense down will be no easy task.
“They're just so balanced,” Franklin said of Ohio State’s offense. “They got two of the better backs in the country. They are explosive at the wide receiver position. They got a quarterback that's able to make all the throws and distribute the ball. So they're putting up big numbers and doing a lot of really good things and it's going to be a tremendous challenge for us.”
Defensively, the Buckeyes haven’t been as great this season, specifically in regards to giving up big plays. With his team having allowed 11 plays of 30-plus yards this season (tied for 107th in the FBS), including three touchdown runs of 70-plus yards (more than any other FBS team), Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer said that is the biggest area in which the Buckeyes needed to improve going into this weekend’s game.
“We’ve played solid defense, we’ve just gave up too many big plays,” Meyer said. “And this will be a tough one, because this is a big-play offense.”
Co-defensive coordinator Alex Grinch also acknowledged while meeting with the media this week that cutting down on big plays is an area in which the Buckeyes defense must improve, and he believes the key to fixing that is for the Buckeyes to more consistently fulfill their assignments and stay in their lanes.
“From a gap integrity standpoint, that’s where it starts,” Grinch said. “And probably any issues that we’ve had defensively this year kind of stem from the lack of gap integrity.”
For the second week in a row – and this time against a much tougher opponent than Tulane – Ohio State will be without its best defensive player, Nick Bosa, who is sidelined until at least November after undergoing core muscle surgery last week. Without Bosa, it will be imperative not only for the rest of the defensive line to step up without him, but also for the linebackers and defensive backs to play at their best behind them.
The Nittany Lions certainly don’t mind not having to face him.
“He's one of the better college football players I've ever seen on tape,” Franklin said of Bosa. “He is obviously big and strong and athletic. But his motor is I think what separates him. There's a lot of big, strong, athletic guys out there, but very rarely do those big, strong, athletic guys have the type of motor that he has play after play after play after play.”
The good news for the Buckeyes, though, is that they still have a talented defensive line even without Bosa, led by defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones, who has emerged as one of college football’s best defensive linemen in his own right, recording 14 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and three sacks and returning an interception for a touchdown already this season.
In addition to Jones, Franklin named safety Jordan Fuller and cornerback Damon Arnette as players who stand out to him on Ohio State’s defense.
“They’re very athletic,” Penn State running back Miles Sanders said of Ohio State’s defense. “They rally to the ball very fast, they react to the ball fast.”
Dre'Mont Jones returns to Penn State as one of Ohio State's top defensive stars this season.
Penn State Breakdown
Only one team has scored more points per game this season than Ohio State, and that team is Penn State. The Nittany Lions averaged 55.5 points per contest this season in their wins over Appalachian State, Pittsburgh, Kent State and Illinois.
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| OFFENSE | ||||
| 54.5 | 2nd | POINTS FOR | 55.5 | 1st |
| 233.3 | 27th | RUSHING OFFENSE | 275.0 | 10th |
| 365.8 | 6th | PASSING OFFENSE | 239.5 | 62nd |
| 599.0 | 3rd | TOTAL OFFENSE | 514.5 | 16th |
| .588 | 3rd | 3rd DOWNS | .490 | 17th |
| .864 | 62nd | RED ZONE | 1.00 | 1st |
| DEFENSE | ||||
| 17.0 | 23rd | POINTS ALLOWED | 19.5 | 35th |
| 142.0 | 59th | RUSH DEFENSE | 172.5 | 82nd |
| 181.3 | 39th | PASS DEFENSE | 173.3 | 29th |
| 110.7 | 30th | PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE | 109.9 | 29th |
| 323.3 | 25th | TOTAL DEFENSE | 345.8 | 45th |
| .362 | 58th | 3rd DOWNS | .339 | 42nd |
| .833 | 64th | RED ZONE | .727 | 25th |
| SPECIAL TEAMS | ||||
| 7.8 | 77th | PUNT RETURN | 18.8 | 18th |
| 21.3 | 63rd | KICKOFF RETURN | 29.9 | 9th |
| 42.4 | 13th | NET PUNTING | 40.1 | 39th |
| MISCELLANEOUS | ||||
| +1.3 | 12th | TURNOVER MARGIN | +0.3 | 52nd |
| 8.0 | 104th | PENALTIES | 5.8 | 46th |
| 8 | EDGE | 10 | ||
The leader of Penn State’s prolific offense is third-year starting quarterback Trace McSorley, a dual-threat who can make plays with both his arm and his feet and has won 26 of his 31 career starts. He drew high praise this week from both Meyer and Grinch, with Meyer comparing McSorley to Barrett because of his “competitive spirit” and his ability to make plays as both as a passer and runner.
“He’s a winner, he’s a leader and his competitiveness is what makes most quarterbacks great,” Meyer said of McSorley. “And he is a great player.”
While McSorley isn’t the most consistently accurate passer, having completed only 53.8 percent of his throws this year, he has a knack for keeping plays alive with his feet and making something out of nothing, which causes headaches for Grinch and Ohio State’s defensive coaching staff.
“His ability to make a bad play good is just alarming,” Grinch said. “It takes the pressure off of a play caller. It takes the pressure off of the other 10 guys on the field. Because he’s going to make sure that he finds a way to get positive yardage.”
The Nittany Lions lost some of their top playmakers around McSorley from last season, most notably star running back Saquon Barkley, who was selected by the New York Giants with the No. 2 overall pick in this spring’s NFL draft. Yet the Nittany Lions still appear to have one of the best running backs in the country in Sanders, who has already rushed for 495 yards and five touchdowns in four games.
“You’d think there’d be a drop-off after Barkley left, and you can’t tell on videotape now,” Meyer said of Sanders. “You just change the number, and that’s an outstanding player. And their offensive line’s playing better than they had. That’s a good offensive line that Penn State has.”
Along with a strong offensive line up front, which has four returning starters from last season, a talented group of pass-catchers around McSorley has also emerged, led by KJ Hamler, who has shown big play with 170 yards and three touchdowns on just nine catches this season, along with a 32-yard touchdown run and 189 yards on just six kickoff returns.
In addition to leading the nation in points scored per game, Penn State’s offense also ranks 16th in yards gained per game (514.5).
“Just real impressed,” Grinch said of Penn State’s offense. “They have a system, they believe in their system and no one seems to have the answers quite yet this year.”
With Trace McSorley and KJ Hamler among those leading the way, Penn State currently leads the nation in scoring offense. Charles LeClaire – USA TODAY Sports
Even with all the points they’ve scored, however, the Nittany Lions have still had some close calls. They went to overtime in their season opener against Appalachian State before eventually squeaking out a 45-38 victory in that game, and trailed 24-21 in the third quarter last week against Illinois before finishing the game with 42 unanswered points.
Like Ohio State, Penn State’s struggles this season have come on defense, as the Nittany Lions gave up 451 yards to Appalachian State and 411 yards to Illinois. But while they’ve looked vulnerable on the side of the ball, their defense believe they are capable of being among the best in the country – they just need to execute better.
“It’s not been anything that’s someone been physically better than us,” said Penn State linebacker Jan Johnson. “I think it’s just we have to execute our job.”
The star of Penn State’s defense is defensive end Shareef Miller, who leads the Nittany Lions with six tackles for loss and three sacks. That said, Miller is one of just two returning starters on Penn State’s defense from 2017, along with linebacker Koa Farmer, and the overall inexperience of the unit has shown in its up-and-down play so far this season.
Penn State’s defense needs to play better for the Nittany Lions to have a chance to slow down Ohio State’s offense. But even though they appear to have flaws that the Buckeyes could expose, Meyer says he doesn’t see Penn State’s defense as a weak link, instead expecting the Nittany Lions to give the Buckeyes offense a real challenge.
“It’s a Penn State football team, which is a very good team,” Meyer said. “Top to bottom, one of the best defenses in the country.”
How It Plays Out
It’s always hard to predict exactly how a game like this will play out, but considering that it will be the first time since 1962 that offenses ranked first and second in the FBS in scoring offenses have met in a game, it certainly appears to have the makings of a high-scoring shootout.
Given that both offenses have scored more often than they have not this season, the outcome could ultimately be determined by which team turns the ball over less and most effectively uses all three phases of the game to control field position.
“Every big game, like the TCU game, is going to be a field-position game,” Meyer said. “Any type of big game, it’s field position, take care of the ball and move the chains.”
| Date | Location | Result |
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| Oct. 28, 2017 | Ohio State | Ohio State 39, Penn State 38 |
| Oct. 22, 2016 | Penn State | Penn State 24, Ohio State 21 |
| Oct. 17, 2015 | Ohio State | Ohio State 38, Penn State 10 |
| Oct. 25, 2014 | Penn State | Ohio State 31, Penn State 24 |
| Oct. 26, 2013 | Ohio State | Ohio State 63, Penn State 14 |
| Oct. 27, 2012 | Penn State | Ohio State 35, Penn State 23 |
If recent series history, and the team’s brief histories so far this season, are any indication, Saturday’s game that should be a four-quarter battle that requires the winning team to close the game out strong.
In the only game so far this season where Ohio State faced actual on-field adversity, the Buckeyes overcame a third-quarter deficit to earn a 40-28 win over TCU. Penn State, meanwhile, has shown on multiple occasions that it can rapidly turn up the heat after a slow start; in addition to scoring the final 42 points against Illinois, the Nittany Lions scored the final 37 points against Pittsbugh after only taking a 14-6 lead into halftime of that game.
“They’re a team that stays on you,” Ohio State linebacker Pete Werner said of Penn State. “A lot of the games they’ve had, they pull away at the end. They start out really close, then they pull away. So they’re just a team that always wants to stay in there and fight, and we just got to match our tempo with theirs, and prepare better than they do, and make sure they don’t pull away.”
Franklin said he expects Saturday’s game to be a “12-round heavyweight fight.”
“Both teams have the ability to make big plays, and we can’t get concerned about that,” Franklin said. “We just got to keep chipping away at it one play at a time, and a championship standard for four quarters. But they’re going to make some plays. We’re going to make some plays. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.
“We just got to keep battling and keep swinging, and stay focused on the goal at hand.”
On paper, the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions appear to be relatively evenly matched, with both teams possessing prolific offenses but inconsistent defenses. Penn State does have one significant advantage in playing in its home stadium, where it has won 16 straight games dating back to the start of the 2016 season.
Ultimately, though, this will be a test of who’s the better football team – and perhaps, who’s the best football team in the Big Ten – and while there haven’t been enough games played yet to say conclusively either way, Ohio State appears to be the slightly better team on both offense and defense.
The Buckeyes have faced a tougher opponent in TCU than anyone Penn State has played yet this year, and Haskins and the Ohio State offense have produced against everyone they’ve faced. And while giving up big plays has been a real issues for the Buckeyes defense, they’ve also shown more ability to make their own big plays on defense and dominate in the trenches than the Nittany Lions.
It’s easy to see this game going in either team’s favor, and if you’re expecting either team to win this game in runaway fashion, you’re probably either wearing scarlet and gray or blue and white glasses.
The Buckeyes are a slight betting favorite going into Saturday’s game, though, and if they are able to handle the challenge of playing in an intense road environment, they have the talent to prevail in Happy Valley and return to Columbus atop the Big Ten standings.
ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 41, Penn State 31
