You're almost there. After we get through this first official game of the Ryan Day era, you can safely resume perusing the web without an overwhelming likelihood of running into corny content trumpeting the "New Day" of Ohio State football.
Get it? Ryan "Day" is the "new" head coach at Ohio State. Smash those two concepts together and you get... New Day. Pretty wild, right? And before anyone gets too salty, this short diatribe was coming for months – no single occurrence of this tired scourge sent me over the edge.
Anyway, we've got bigger things to discuss as the NEW DAY of Ohio State football sits just one sunrise away from NEW head coach Ryan DAY leading his 2019 squad onto the field.
To get your mind right for the fracas with Florida Atlantic, the 11W roundtable is back at it with our very own Dan Hope, Andrew Ellis and Andy Vance.
Everyone knows Justin Fields can run and it’s also no secret Ohio State is screwed if he gets hurt. So how Ryan Day play it in the opener? How may carries do Fields log on the afternoon? What do you think is the sweet spot for Fields’ carries per game against the more challenging opponents?
Dan: When Day was asked about keeping Fields healthy on Tuesday, he said the Buckeyes have to go into every game "expecting to go win the game in the fourth quarter" and therefore, they "can't be walking on eggshells" and constantly worrying about players getting injured. With that being said, Ohio State really shouldn't need four quarters to take care of business against FAU, and Day is smart enough to know better than to put his quarterback in harm's way in unnecessary situations. So I would expect to see a single-digit number of carries for Fields in the season opener, mostly if not all in the first half.
Ultimately, I think Ohio State would probably prefer not to ever have Fields running the ball 20 times per game; when even Urban Meyer, noted admirer of the quarterback run, is saying publicly that the Buckeyes need to be careful with running Fields because of their lack of quarterback depth, there's certainly reason to be extra protective. If Ohio State needs Fields to run more to win a highly competitive game, he will, but ideally, Fields will pass the ball well enough and J.K. Dobbins will run the ball well enough that the Buckeyes will only need to run Fields occasionally to keep defenses honest.
Andrew: Justin Fields getting hurt would be catastrophic so we obviously don’t need any J.T. Barrett-type rushing performances. I’m good with Fields running it 6-8ish times per game against the likes of FAU and Miami and then approaching double digits in Big Ten play (and getting out of bounds as much as possible). I actually just realized that Dwayne Haskins averaged nearly six carries per game and that’s more than I would have guessed. If the quarterback depth was a little better then I’d raise that number a little bit for Fields. I’m expecting Saturday to be a pretty big J.K. Dobbins day with plenty of Demario McCall action as well. Fields shouldn’t need to take off too much so here’s to hoping they can keep that to a minimum.
Andy: Strangely I’m less worried about Ryan Day reverting to the “safety blanket” of a running quarterback than I would have been under his predecessor. The Day offense, with an admittedly different situation a season ago, feels less dependent on having a Braxton Miller or J.T. Barrett taking snaps than did the Urban Meyer version. Barrett averaged between 11 and 15 carries per game during his career at Ohio State, and if Fields ends up carrying more than that in the opener, I would assume something has gone horribly wrong because I fully expect to see him cheering from the sidelines in the second half. Against teams with a defensive pulse, on the other hand? Ten carries a game doesn’t scare me, but with so many options, I’d be much happier seeing him in more of a distributor role rather than being the guy who *has* to get the first down with his legs.
Branden Bowen will start at right tackle after a long battle with a leg injury.
As Urban Meyer used to say, Ohio State is an offensive line driven program. That said, how confident are you in the new starters up front? Which OL position gives you the most heartburn and when the dust settles on the 2019, where will we rank this position group against the other position groups in Ohio State’s program (top, middle, bottom)?
Andy: Coach Stud said the right things this fall about his new starters, talking up Wyatt Davis and Josh Myers in particular, and I’m excited to see Brandon Bowen back in the trenches after all he’s been through. By and large I think I’m cautiously optimistic about the line given the talent in the room, offset only by the fact that you only have Munford as a true returning starter. I don’t think the big eaters will be one of the lower-ranked units on the team, but I’m still not entirely sold on Studrawa as the ultimate hogmaster. If they can keep Fields clean and healthy, that may be the thing that finally gets me to buy in.
Andrew: I think the 2019 offensive line will be better than what we saw last season. I suppose right tackle is the biggest question mark only because Branden Bowen has missed so much time and Nicholas Petit-Frere is only a redshirt freshman. Thayer Munford’s health is also certainly of paramount importance. I think the offensive line will be toward the middle of the road among the other position groups. Far from a weakness but also not the team’s greatest strength.
Dan: I would say I'm cautiously optimistic in Ohio State's offensive line this year. I think all five starters have the potential to be excellent, but Thayer Munford is the only returning starter up front, and he was sidelined for most of the offseason with back surgery. Jonah Jackson was a starter and team captain at Rutgers, but playing at Ohio State is a different beast. Branden Bowen was impressive as a starting guard before he got hurt in 2017, but he hasn't played since and now he's playing a new position. Wyatt Davis and Josh Myers have all the tools to be stars, but they're both first-year starters. I wouldn't be surprised if the offensive line becomes a strength by year's end, but I would also expect some growing pains early in the season because of the lack of experience this group has playing together. There's no shortage of confidence within the program in the offensive line, though, so it's not unrealistic to think this unit could ultimately be better than last year despite the departure of four starters.
Looking at the 27 freshmen eligible players on the roster (includes redshirts) which two will have the greatest impact this season? Which two, if different, might have the greatest impact over the length of the careers in Columbus?
Dan: I'm really stepping out on a limb here, but I'm going to have to say Garrett Wilson and Zach Harrison. Wilson has the skills to be an absolute stud in Ohio State's receiving corps; I expect him to make an immediate impact as a true freshman and think there's a strong possibility he will leave Ohio State in three years as a first-round NFL draft pick. I'm not as bullish on Harrison making an immediate impact, because Larry Johnson typically prefers to ease true freshmen into the defensive line rotation and believe he will probably need a year of technique work before he's ready to play up to his full potential, but Harrison was one of the first players Day named when asked this week who would have to step up at defensive end if Jonathon Cooper is unavailable to play at the start of the season. Like Wilson, Harrison could easily leave Ohio State in three years as a first-round pick, as he has an elite combination of speed and size that will make him tough for anyone to block even if he needs time for his technical skills to catch up to his physical tools.
Redshirt freshman Jaelen Gill is another player who could fit either category, though it's still unclear how big his role will be this season with K.J. Hill and C.J. Saunders also on the H-back depth chart. Nicholas Petit-Frere will also see some playing time at right tackle as a redshirt freshman, and he has the tools to emerge as a star over the next few years, but he's a backup for now. Harry Miller and Cade Stover are other true freshmen who look like future stars, but they'll probably only see occasional playing time this year.
Andy: Day specifically mentioned center Harry Miller and defense end Zach Harrison as two freshman who would see the field Saturday, and the two early enrollees seem like potential difference-makers given their positions and the opportunity to rotate in early and often in games against weaker opponents. In terms of having the greatest impact over the course of a career, Harrison is a mixed bag because I figure he’s one who won’t be in Columbus four or five years, but will be playing on Sunday as soon as possible.
Miller, on the other hand, may end up playing right up the four-game redshirt limit, and conceivably have more longevity at Ohio State because of it. Either way, I expect he’s a guy who could work himself into the Pat Elflein/Billy Price echelon of Buckeye interior lineman. Another young gun I’m excited to see Saturday is Garrett Wilson, who should be a highlight reel kind of guy in what could become a high-flying offense.
Andrew: For this season I will go with Garrett Wilson and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Neither looks to be an immediate starter in 2019 but both of them will see plenty of action. As for the long term, I’d probably go with the same duo with a little bit of Harry Miller sprinkled in. Miller seems to be an incredible kid on and off the field and I just don’t see any possible scenario where he doesn’t do big things in Columbus.
Co-defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has his secondary believing it can be one of the nation's best.
After last year’s defense set some dubious records giving up the most yards and points per game in the history of Ohio State football, there is still a ton of optimism in the WHAC and among most of the fan base that the group will bounce back in a big way. Do you share that optimism? What is most important thing you want to see from the defense on Saturday?
Andrew: I absolutely do share that same optimism. There’s simply no way the defense is going to be as bad as it was in 2018. I rewatched the Maryland game a few weeks ago and then told myself I will never make that same mistake again. The biggest thing I want to see on Saturday is keeping the big plays to a minimum and – for the love of god – taking the appropriate angles. The missed tackles and poor angles have to be cut down, and I think that they will be.
Dan: I am expecting the defense to be better this season than last season, both because the Buckeyes have a much more experienced unit than last year and because I believe the new defensive coaching staff will do a better job putting their players in positions to play up to their ability. That said, I am still expecting there to be growing pains for this unit early in the season as they settle into playing in a new defensive scheme.
Two things Ohio State's coaches have preached constantly in the weeks leading up to the season have been playing fast and making tackles, so I think seeing the Buckeyes' defensive players do both of those things consistently are the most important things we need to see on Saturday. And when they do give up a big play, which I believe will happen at least once or twice on Saturday, they need to be able to regroup immediately and get a stop on the next series or set of downs. Last year, it seemed like Ohio State's defense would just lose its confidence as soon as things started to go wrong; this year, the hope is that the Buckeyes will be more fundamentally sound and the new scheme will prevent opponents from exposing fatal flaws in the defense.
Andy: Do I share that optimism? Well, it’s hard for things to get much worse, honestly. Given the outstanding work Larry Johnson has done with the defensive line, the Silver Bullets feel primed for a resurgence with an overhaul to the backfield, schematically. Praise for Jeff Hafley has been darn-near universal, and I think I’m back to that “cautiously optimistic” frame of mind for the defense as a whole. The most important thing I want to see from the defense is that ability to hit their assignments, exhibit gap discipline, and look like a squad that has some semblance of chemistry.
Taking the roundtable national for just a sec, give us a team outside of the preseason top 5 (Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State) that’s most likely to make the College Football Playoff and justify your selection.
Andy: In five seasons, the only other teams to make the playoff are Florida State, Oregon, Michigan State, Washington and Notre Dame… and we can discount two or three of those pretty quickly. I’m counting out Oregon and Washington because PAC-12, lol, and Michigan State because I don’t think they’re going to unseat Ohio State in the Big Ten. Florida State isn’t going to do it, so that leaves Notre Dame. Starting the season in the Top 10 helps the cause, of course, and their toughest game of the season - at Georgia - comes early enough in the season to be forgiven by the committee. If they can top Michigan in Ann Arbor it will be a statement-type game late in the season, and then a season finale on the road against a potentially ranked Stanford could set up nicely for a return trip to the playoffs.
Dan: I believe those are the five most likely teams to make the College Football Playoff, but one team that I believe is capable of crashing the party is LSU. The Tigers have a loaded schedule that includes five games against preseason top-16 teams (including road trips to Texas and Alabama), but if they can manage to get through that schedule with only one loss – and they just might be talented enough to do so – they'd certainly be in the playoff conversation. Ohio State fans are familiar with LSU quarterback Joe Burrow from his previous time as a Buckeye, and he's got a lot of talent around him, including one of the nation's best defensive players in safety Grant Delpit. My actual prediction is that LSU goes 10-2 and finishes second in the SEC West to Alabama, which would probably keep the Tigers out of the playoff, but I would rank them as the sixth-best team in college football entering the season.
Andrew: I actually have Texas in my playoff this year. I don’t think Sam Ehlinger is a possible Heisman contender like some seem to believe, but I really do like the Longhorn defense and look for them to build off that bowl win over Georgia. An early matchup with LSU could be problematic and Oklahoma will still have a ton of firepower, but I think Tom Herman may have what it takes to get to the playoffs. Being one of the few Big-12 schools to actually field a defense may be the biggest thing working in his favor.
Hungry to bounceback from a subpar 2018 season, J.K. Dobbins could be Ohio State's MVP on Saturday.
Ohio State enters Saturday’s season opener as a 27-point favorite over the Fighting Kiffins. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
Andrew: Ohio State covers and I’m seeing a score of 47-17. J.K. Dobbins goes back to looking like the 2017 version and is the game’s MVP. Chase Young forces a fumble that Robert Landers recovers for a touchdown. I’m really hoping to see some sort of cowboy celebration as well.
Andy: I took the Buckeyes to cover because I don’t think the Owls (they’re really the Owls, right?) have a defense that can hold up against Ohio State roster. This is a matchup that sets up too much like last year’s laugher against Oregon State, and some new playmakers like Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson will be excited about making things happen in their debut inside the Horseshoe. Final score 41-14 because I think the backups will be in from the second half on, and I expect Fields to get the first of many MVP nods.
Dan: It's always hard to pick against the spread in games like these, because FAU could easily score a couple touchdowns against Ohio State's reserves in the fourth quarter that make the final score look closer than the game actually was, but I am predicting that the Buckeyes will cover on Saturday. I think Ohio State's offense should be capable of putting somewhere between 40-60 points against an FAU defense that was subpar last season, and I think a Buckeyes defense that will be hungry to make a statement after last year will hold the Owls to 21 points or less. J.K. Dobbins is also hungry to make a statement after a season that he considered to be a "failure" last year, and the Buckeyes will likely hand the ball to him early and often in Saturday's game to take pressure off Fields in his first start, so I'll pick him to be the game MVP against an FAU run defense that isn't likely to be particularly stout.
