Every time it starts to look like Ohio State has a clear path to the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes get hit by another cancellation.
When Ohio State was ranked fourth in the initial College Football Playoff rankings two weeks ago, the Buckeyes appeared to be in great shape for a CFP berth as long as they won the rest of their games. But then they had to cancel their trip to Illinois, and CFP selection committee chairman Gary Barta said there was “a lot of discussion” about whether No. 4 Ohio State should remain ahead of No. 5 Texas A&M, and suddenly there was reason to be concerned that another cancellation could be problematic.
Ohio State was able to return to action against Michigan State last week, and it won in convincing fashion, defeating the Spartans 52-12 even with a multitude of unavailable players, including three starting offensive linemen. That ensured the Buckeyes would hold on to their No. 4 spot in this week’s rankings, and Barta confirmed on Tuesday night that the committee was impressed with what it saw from the Buckeyes in East Lansing.
“The fact that three of them were offensive linemen, that certainly got our attention, so watching Justin Fields do what he did, just really took command of the offense,” Barta said during a teleconference on Tuesday night. “It was important to see another game from Ohio State because they were at four games, now they're at five, but the 52-12 win against Michigan State was impressive.”
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That said, the Buckeyes had another game canceled on Tuesday when Michigan announced it would be unable to play Ohio State due to COVID-19 cases within its program. If the Buckeyes are unable to line up another opponent for this weekend, they’d play a maximum of only six games before the four-team playoff field is selected next week.
Could that lack of games make the difference in whether or not Ohio State makes this year’s CFP? It’s certainly possible. Barta has acknowledged throughout the last few weeks that it’s more difficult to evaluate teams who have played fewer games, and every game that gets canceled is one less opportunity for the Buckeyes to impress the committee.
“We’ve talked about it from day one that that number of games was gonna be critical,” Barta said. “It was important for the committee to see Ohio State play again, and the more we can see Ohio State play, the better, because they've played five games.”
Barta didn’t want to project ahead, though, on how it could impact the committee’s ultimate playoff selections if Ohio State plays only six games.
“We resist looking ahead. We've seen Ohio State play five games. Based on that performance, we put them in the fourth spot, and we'll just wait and see. Next week is another ranking opportunity, and then we'll have that final ranking opportunity,” Barta said. “Fans want to know, but the committee just works very hard to not look ahead.”
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If Ohio State doesn’t play this week, it would probably help the Buckeyes if the Big Ten removes the six-game minimum requirement for them to play in the Big Ten Championship Game next week. While Ohio State would still have a chance to play a sixth game next week (potentially against No. 16 Iowa, who’s ranked just two spots behind Big Ten West champion Northwestern) as part of the Big Ten’s “Champions Week,” conference championships will be one factor the selection committee considers in deciding which teams should make the CFP.
“Conference championships is one criteria that we use. And certainly that’ll be considered. But of course, we consider the entire body of work, and we look at the teams they’ve played head-to-head, so it’s one important piece but it’s not the only piece,” Barta said.
For those of us who can project ahead, however, what seems to work in Ohio State’s favor is there just aren’t that many strong candidates to actually jump the Buckeyes in the rankings even if they only play one more game and even if they don’t get to play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Texas A&M is still ranked fifth behind Ohio State, but the Aggies also had their game for this week canceled, and they won’t be playing in the SEC Championship Game. While they are scheduled to play Tennessee next week, a win over the unranked Volunteers probably isn’t going to turn the tables if Ohio State can play and win against a ranked opponent next week.
Iowa State’s move up to No. 7 is also a good sign for the Buckeyes, given that the Cyclones have already lost two games and no two-loss team has ever made the CFP. While there’s a case to be made that 8-0 Cincinnati or 10-0 Coastal Carolina belongs in the conversation for a playoff spot, Tuesday night’s rankings signaled that Group of 5 teams aren’t going to get serious consideration from the committee, as Cincinnati dropped behind Iowa State to No. 8 while Coastal Carolina is ranked just 13th even after beating fellow unbeaten BYU.
There’s one potential doomsday scenario for Ohio State, and that’s No. 6 Florida beating No. 1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and No. 3 Clemson beating No. 2 Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game. In that scenario, it’s certainly possible that all four of those teams – who would all finish the season 10-1, assuming Alabama and Florida win their regular-season finales this week – could all be selected for the CFP over the 6-0 or even 7-0 Buckeyes.
But if Alabama hands Florida its second loss or Notre Dame hands Clemson its second loss, there’s reason to believe Ohio State would be in great position to make the playoff just as long as it plays one more game and remains unbeaten.
