The final answer nears.
On Sunday at noon after championship weekend concludes, ESPN will air the College Football Playoff selection show to unveil the four teams that will compete for the national championship.
With that day nearing, we're taking one more look at where the Buckeyes fit into the most likely playoff brackets.
There's one major caveat, of course: If Ohio State loses this weekend's Big Ten championship game, that seals the team's fate. It's just about impossible to imagine a scenario in which the Buckeyes would get in as a 5-1 team with a loss to Northwestern in the conference title game.
But if they win? They're almost certainly in the four-team playoff field.
Where would they be seeded? Who'd they match up with? That's what we're taking a look at on Friday afternoon.
Editor's note: All of the records in this article are what they would be in the given scenario which is why they differ throughout.
- Alabama (11-0)
- Clemson (10-1)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
This is, by far, the easiest scenario to project. If you're on the College Football Playoff selection committee, you might even be secretly rooting for the weekend to play out like this to make your job easier.
This is pretty simple: Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship game, Clemson avenges its loss to Notre Dame and tops the Fighting Irish in the ACC title game and Ohio State wins the Big Ten by defeating Northwestern.
Alabama would clearly retain the top spot. Clemson and Ohio State would move up one ranking. Notre Dame would fall from No. 2 to No. 4 with its only loss having come at the hands of the Tigers. Depending on how the games play out, perhaps the Buckeyes could make a case to be No. 2 instead of No. 3, but that wouldn't change the matchups at all. It's difficult to imagine this scenario playing out and any team outside of these four making the field.
To win a national title with this layout, the Buckeyes would have to go through Clemson and either Alabama or Notre Dame. Buckle up.
- Alabama (11-0)
- Clemson (10-1)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
- Ohio State (6-0)
We might as well offer one variant to the scenario above.
What if Ohio State beats Northwestern but does do unconvincingly? What if Clemson-Notre Dame in the ACC championship game is a thriller and Clemson barely ekes out a win? That might
There's one obvious question: Would the playoff committee really set up a third game between Clemson and Notre Dame in the semifinals? Even if the members on the committee say they wouldn't take that into consideration, it's tough to imagine them not at least giving some thought as to whether they would want to make it a reality. If this happened, though, Ohio State would get the Crimson Tide in the semifinals.
- Alabama (11-0)
- Notre Dame (11-0)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Texas A&M (8-1)
Things get a heck of a lot less clear if something other than Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State all winning happens this weekend. The most likely of those teams to lose on Saturday is Clemson. So, that's the scenario that's laid out here.
Alabama beats Florida and hangs on to the top spot. Notre Dame beats Clemson and sticks at No. 2. Ohio State beats Northwestern and moves up to No. 3.
Who's the fourth team in that case? Most people would peg Texas A&M, which faces Tennessee as a two-touchdown road favorite to end the season. The Aggies got smoked by Alabama earlier this year, but they also enter the weekend in the No. 5 spot due to their seven wins, including one against the Gators. They'd be the odds-on favorite to be the fourth and final playoff team if they handle their business in Knoxville.
If this happens, the Buckeyes would get an unbeaten Notre Dame team in the semifinals with a potential matchup with Alabama lingering with a national championship on the line.
- Notre Dame (11-0)
- Alabama (11-0)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Texas A&M (8-1)
One minor variation to the scenario directly above this one that could have significant implications to Ohio State.
Would the selection committee consider putting Notre Dame at No. 1 over Alabama if the Fighting Irish win impressively this weekend? That should be disregarded – especially since it would avoid a Crimson Tide-Aggies rematch in the semifinals.
It sets up an Ohio State-Alabama first-round matchup instead with Notre Dame taking on Texas A&M.
- Alabama (11-0)
- Notre Dame (11-0)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Clemson (9-2)/Cincinnati (9-0)/Iowa State (9-2) or Oklahoma (8-2)
Is there a scenario where Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State all win but Texas A&M does't get in? Of course. The Aggies are one loss away from elimination, and even then it's conceivable – though unlikely – that it could play out this way and the selection committee have some other team hop them.
If Clemson's two losses were both to Notre Dame and both tight contests, it could make a case. An undefeated Cincinnati – which plays Tulsa for the AAC title on Friday night – would seem to have a quality resumé, though the Bearcats remain at No. 8 which isn't a great sign for their hopes. The two-loss winner of the Big 12 championship game between Iowa State and Oklahoma would be in the mix.
From an Ohio State perspective: Figuring out the last team in the field might not matter much. The Buckeyes would face Notre Dame with Alabama likely waiting – or vice versa – provided it gets by the No. 4 seed.
- Notre Dame (11-0)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Alabama (10-1)
- Florida (9-2)/Texas A&M (8-1)/Cincinnati (9-0)/Iowa State (9-2) or Oklahoma (8-2)
Notre Dame beats Clemson. Ohio State beats Northwestern. Alabama loses to Florida.
Might not be too likely, but it is possible.
This would be pretty simple for the Buckeyes: They'd face Nick Saban's Crimson Tide in the semifinals. Perhaps there'd be some debate among the committee members about which team get the second seed, but that wouldn't matter once they get onto the field.
Most of the attention would be focused on who gets in for the right to play Notre Dame in the semifinals. It would likely come down to a two-loss SEC champion in Florida or a one-loss Texas A&M team that beat the Gators, with Cincinnati and either Iowa State or Oklahoma lurking.
- Clemson (10-1)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
- Alabama (10-1)
- Ohio State (6-0)
The final scenario to look at is perhaps the most difficult field to project of any that includes a Buckeye victory.
Clemson beats Notre Dame. Florida beats Alabama. Ohio State beats Northwestern.
Dabo Swinney's Tigers would likely get become the No. 1 seed as the ACC champion that just beat the Fighting Irish. Since Ohio State is currently behind a one-loss ACC team (Clemson), so it would seem to make sense that it would stay behind a new one-loss team in this scenario (Notre Dame), but the committee could possibly look at the Buckeyes' Big Ten championship as a reason to put them up as high as No. 2. Alabama, even if it loses to the Gators, would likely be in the field, and its wins versus Texas A&M, Georgia, Auburn and Missouri could propel the one-loss Crimson Tide above the Buckeyes.
Either way, one thing is clear after going through this exercise: If Ohio State wins the Big Ten championship game, it would likely have to beat two of the current top three seeds – No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 3 Clemson – en route to a national title. We'll figure it all out on Sunday.
