Predictably, the College Football Playoff rankings caused an uproar yet again on Tuesday night.
If you’re an Ohio State fan, though, they’re just not worth worrying about this week.
As long as Ohio State beats Northwestern in Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes shouldn't in any danger of being left out of the College Football Playoff field on Sunday.
Most of the outrage surrounding Tuesday night’s rankings came after Florida dropped just one spot to No. 7 despite suffering its second loss of the season against unranked LSU, leaving the door open to the possibility that the Gators could still get into the CFP if they upset No. 1 Alabama in this weekend’s SEC Championship Game.
But if you’re worrying that a two-loss Florida could keep an undefeated Big Ten champion Ohio State out of the CFP, you’re almost certainly losing sleep over nothing.
If the CFP selection committee was going to punish Ohio State for not playing enough games this season, it presumably would have already done so by now. The Buckeyes have been a constant at the No. 4 spot in every edition of this year’s playoff rankings, even though they’ve had two games canceled since then, and they have a real opportunity to bolster their résumé this weekend by beating No. 14 Northwestern and winning a conference title.
Assuming Ohio State beats Northwestern on Saturday – because if it loses, it won’t be in the CFP and none of this will matter – the Buckeyes are more likely to move up the rankings, with No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 3 Clemson playing each other again in the ACC Championship Game, than down.
If Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State all win on Saturday as they’re favored to do, the CFP field seems likely to consist of No. 1 Alabama facing No. 4 Notre Dame in one semifinal and No. 2 Clemson facing No. 3 Ohio State in the other semifinal. If Notre Dame beats Clemson, that would only increase Ohio State’s likelihood of being the No. 3 seed behind the Crimson Tide and Fighting Irish, though it’s uncertain who would be No. 4 and possible the undefeated Fighting Irish could move up to No. 1.
In a year where everything has changed because of COVID-19, it’s dangerous to assume that precedents will hold true in this year’s CFP. While no undefeated Power 5 conference champion has ever missed the CFP, that’s almost certainly going to happen if USC wins the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday, as the Trojans are just 13th in the penultimate CFP rankings.
That doesn’t mean being an undefeated conference champion won’t be reason enough for the Buckeyes to lock up their spot, though, because it’s clear the CFP selection committee views Ohio State as being a much better team than USC, even though both have 5-0 records.
“The question has been asked, ‘They both have 5-0 records, how can they be apart in the rankings?’” CFP selection committee chairman Gary Barta said Tuesday night. “And it’s because we’ve watched the games, we’ve watched how each team plays and has controlled the games. There is (Ohio State’s) win over Indiana also, a (11th-)ranked team.”
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Surely, a win over No. 1 Alabama and a conference championship would help Florida’s résumé, but a win over Northwestern and a conference championship will help Ohio State’s résumé, too. And even though Barta rarely provides any answers to questions that can be considered concrete, ultimately leaving the committee wiggle room to do whatever it wants, even his vague answers have suggested that the Buckeyes have plenty of cushion over every team behind them.
When asked on Tuesday if there was discussion this week about No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas A&M, Barta said there was “really not a lot of discussion of moving anybody” in the top five. Given that Texas A&M’s final game before CFP selection is against a 3-6 Tennessee team without a conference championship on the line, there’s no reason to view the Aggies as a threat to jump Ohio State if both teams win this weekend.
As for the teams outside the top five, Barta said “there was not really any discussion” about No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Iowa State, either.
That was in part because none of Ohio State, Texas A&M and Iowa State played this past weekend, so there wasn’t any new data for the committee to evaluate with those teams. But if the selection committee is going to put No. 6 Iowa State or No. 7 Florida into the playoff, it’s going to have to break another precedent: Putting a two-loss team in the CFP for the first time.
Again, that possibility can’t be ruled out, considering that both teams have the opportunity to earn top-10 wins and conference championships this weekend with Iowa State playing No. 10 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. Yet despite the belief some have that the committee will do whatever it takes to help the SEC, it still shouldn’t be expected that either of those teams is going to make the CFP without other results going their way this weekend (like Notre Dame beating Clemson, Northwestern beating Ohio State and/or Texas A&M losing to Tennessee).
If you’re a fan of Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, USC or Louisiana, you certainly have reason to be upset about where your team is ranked this week. If you’re of the opinion that the CFP should be expanded to eight teams and give automatic bids to conference champions rather than being an entirely subjective process, this week’s rankings can certainly strengthen your argument for that.
But if you’re only concerned about whether Ohio State will be in this year’s College Football Playoff, your concern should be squarely upon whether the Buckeyes will do what they need to take care of business against Northwestern this weekend. Because with just one weekend to go until the CFP field is set, a win this weekend should be all Ohio State needs to secure its place in the semifinals.
