Preview: Ohio State Looks to Win Fourth Straight Big Ten Championship, Punch Ticket to College Football Playoff Against Northwestern

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NOON – SATURDAY, DEC. 12 LUCAS OIL STADIUM INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA

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It hasn’t been a smooth or easy road getting there, with the start of the season delayed until late October and three of the Buckeyes’ final five regular-season games canceled, but thanks to their undefeated record in the five games they have played – and the Big Ten eliminating the six-game minimum that would have kept them out of the championship game – Ohio State has a chance to win its fourth straight conference title.

If Ohio State beats Northwestern in Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game, which will kick off at noon at Lucas Oil Stadium instead of the 8 p.m. start time from years past, the Buckeyes will also likely secure their berth in the College Football Playoff, whose participants will be selected on Sunday.

“When this whole thing just opened up with COVID, we just wanted to play for a Big Ten championship, that’s why everybody came back,” Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert said this week. “And now we’re here.”

The Headlines

Going for a Four-Peat

Ohio State already made history last year when it became the first team to win three consecutive outright Big Ten championships. Now, it has the chance to do it four times in a row.

While Ohio State certainly has bigger goals than just winning the conference again, that’s still a potential accomplishment that shouldn’t be overlooked. The Buckeyes have been dominant in the Big Ten year in and year out, and while they did need a rule change to help them make it to the championship game this year, the main reason they’re back in Indianapolis is because they’ve won every game they’ve played including a 42-35 win over Indiana, who finished second in the East.

As big as the gap has become between Ohio State and the rest of the conference, especially on the recruiting trail, winning the Big Ten has become an annual expectation for the Buckeyes. But they still have to win the games to make that happen – including another one against Northwestern on Saturday – and Ryan Day wants the magnitude of what a win on Saturday would represent, especially for Ohio State’s senior class, to be appreciated.

“They’ve got a chance to do something special, win four straight,” Day said. “And boy, I hope for them and for their families and all they’ve sacrificed, that we can find a way to win this thing.”

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Last Chance to Impress the Committee

As much as the Buckeyes want to win another set of Big Ten championship rings this weekend, what they want most of all are national championship rings, and this weekend will be their final opportunity to make a statement that they belong in the College Football Playoff.

They probably don’t actually need to do anything more than win the game – most likely, they’re in with a win regardless of what happens in Saturday’s other conference championship games – but they could solidify themselves as a top-four team by beating Northwestern convincingly. And even though they need to just focus on winning Saturday before they worry about what could happen Sunday, it’d be naive to think they won’t be thinking about impressing the selection committee, too.

“We’ve definitely got something to prove. Like I’ve been telling a lot of my teammates, we gotta blow them out,” Ohio State cornerback Shaun Wade said Tuesday. “We have to come to play, and we have to show the world what we can do.”

Who Will and Won’t Be Available?

Much like the last game Ohio State had the opportunity to play against Michigan State, the big question leading up to this week’s game is which players the Buckeyes could be without due to positive COVID-19 cases. While the Buckeyes are expected to have most of the players who were unavailable two weeks ago back for the Big Ten Championship Game – including offensive linemen Thayer Munford, Josh Myers and Nicholas Petit-Frere, linebacker Tuf Borland and safety Josh Proctor – the rumor mill has been spinning with indications that other Ohio State players have tested positive over the past week.

Ohio State is still on track to play in Saturday’s game, but the Buckeyes could be without some key players once again. Who exactly will be unavailable will remain uncertain until Saturday; while Ohio State has typically released a status report for each game on Friday mornings, Ohio State is holding this week’s availability report until Saturday morning, just as it did for the Michigan State game.

Regardless of who’s unable to play, the Buckeyes will be looking for everyone who makes the trip to step up just as they did in East Lansing, where Ohio State had its most dominant performance of the season even though it had to lean on numerous backups to play important roles. 

Keep An Eye on These Guys

LBs Paddy Fisher, Blake Gallagher and Chris Bergin

Northwestern’s strength is its defense, as it’s allowed just 14.6 points per game this season, and its leaders on defense are its trio of senior linebackers.

Fisher, a fourth-year starter, was named Wednesday as the Big Ten Linebacker of the Year. Gallagher, a third-year starter who earned second-team All-Big Ten honors, is tied with Fisher for the team lead of 65 tackles and also leads the Wildcats with 9.5 tackles for loss. They’re tied for fourth in the Big Ten in total tackles while Bergin, a second-year starter and All-Big Ten honorable mention, is tied for seventh with 58.

Together, they are the only trio of Power 5 players on the same team who all have more than 200 career tackles, and Ohio State is certainly taking their experience into consideration as it puts together its offensive game plan.

“They can make quick adjustments. They can diagnose plays. We have to do a good job,” Day said. “We have to understand that these guys have played a lot, they’ve seen a lot. You have to be good with your eyes. You can’t be telegraphing things.” 

CB Greg Newsome II and S Brandon Joseph

The Wildcats also have two first-team All-Big Ten players in their secondary who could make this game one of the toughest tests of the season to date for Justin Fields and Ohio State’s receivers.

Newsome earned first-team all-conference honors as one of the Big Ten’s top cornerbacks after leading the Big Ten with 10 passes defensed during the regular season. At 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, Newsome is one of Northwestern’s top NFL prospects, and a player who’s caught Day’s eye on film.

“Greg Newsome is really aggressive,” Day said.

Joseph, a first-year starter at safety, earned first-team All-Big Ten honors and Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors after recording five interceptions – tied for the most in the Football Bowl Subdivision – during the regular season, so he’s a player Fields must account for when making decisions throwing the ball downfield.

QB Peyton Ramsey

Ramsey hasn’t put up huge numbers this season – he hasn’t had more than 212 passing yards in any of Northwestern’s seven games – but his arrival at Northwestern as a graduate transfer this offseason has still played a crucial role in the Wildcats’ run to the Big Ten West title. Northwestern’s passing offense was one of the worst in the entire country in 2019, when the Wildcats averaged just 117 passing yards per game, but Ramsey has at least given them stability.

A Cincinnati native who previously played at Indiana, Ramsey will be making his first third against Ohio State on Saturday. He didn’t have much success against the Buckeyes in 2019, throwing for only 162 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception, but he did throw for 322 yards and three touchdowns at Ohio State in 2018, and he’s garnered plenty of praise from Day and the Buckeyes this week.

“I think he’s a winner,” Day said. “You see him throw the ball away when there’s nothing there, you see him make big passes when he needs to and take chances. He’s a coach’s son, he’s a winner and he understands how to win. He knows how to lead men. And he’s got the it factor.”

Peyton Ramsey leads Northwestern's offense into Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game. (Photo: Jeffrey Becker – USA TODAY Sports)

Game Week Talk

“We prepare for it the same as we would prepare for any other game, and now we’re just playing for a big ring.”– Jeremy Ruckert

While Ruckert acknowledged that this year’s Big Ten championship week doesn’t quite feel the same as past years with how short the regular season has been, he expects the Buckeyes to be as locked in as ever as they play with hardware on the line on Saturday.

“I’m sure we’re gonna be underdogs by like 70.”– Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald

Not quite – Northwestern was a 20-point underdog as of Friday morning – but he’s right that most people don’t think the Wildcats have much chance of winning Saturday’s game. Fitzgerald knows his team is in for a “huge challenge,” but also said, “there’s a reason why you play the game.”

“I think last time, we had the approach of we were happy to win the West. But I think our goals have superseded that, and our expectation now is to win the Big Ten championship, and that’s going to be our mindset going into this game.”– Northwestern wide receiver Riley Lees

In its first Big Ten Championship Game appearance two years ago, Northwestern suffered a 45-24 loss to Ohio State. That gives the Wildcats, especially upperclassmen like Lees who played in 2018, extra motivation to push for an upset on Saturday.

RELATED Northwestern Players Not Satisfied with Just Making Big Ten Championship Game: “Our Expectation Now is to Win”

Get Smart

• Ohio State is making its sixth Big Ten Championship Game appearance in the last eight years. It has won its last four Big Ten title game appearances, with three wins over Wisconsin (2014, 2017, 2019) and one win over Northwestern (2018), after losing to Michigan State in 2013.
• The Buckeyes are seeking their 39th Big Ten championship all-time.
• Northwestern is seeking its first Big Ten championship since 2000.
• Northwestern’s roster features 17 players from Ohio, including Ramsey, running backs Isaiah Bowser and Cam Porter, starting offensive linemen Nik Urban, Sam Gerak and Gunnar Vogel and kicker Charlie Kuhbander.
• As detailed in a story this week by the blog Another Slice, the Green Bay Packers’ two captains from their Super Bowl I win over the Kansas City Chiefs both have grandsons playing in this game. Ohio State right guard Wyatt Davis is the grandson of Pro Football Hall of Fame defensive end Willie Davis, while Northwestern left tackle Peter Skoronski is the grandson of former Packers left tackle Bob Skoronski.

How It Plays Out

Line: Ohio State -20, O/U 57.0

Northwestern is in the Big Ten Championship Game for a reason – because it’s found ways to win all year – and the Wildcats seem genuinely confident in their ability to compete with Ohio State on Saturday. They’re surely going to be motivated, with longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz set to retire after the season and the chance to end the program’s two-decade drought without a conference championship.

On paper, though, Ohio State should have a clear advantage in this matchup. While Ohio State has scored at least 38 points in all five of its games this year, Northwestern hasn’t scored more than 28 points in any of its last six games. 

The Wildcats do have the best defense the Buckeyes have faced all season, but Ohio State’s offense is by far the most explosive Northwestern has faced. And while Ohio State’s weakness has been giving up big plays in pass defense, Northwestern’s passing offense – which hasn’t had a single passing play of 40 yards or more this season – isn’t built to take advantage of that weakness.

As long as Ohio State can score in the fashion it has all season, Northwestern isn’t going to be able to keep up. Unavailable players for the Buckeyes could potentially decrease their advantage to some extent, but Ohio State still has far more talent on both sides of the ball and should be able to win comfortably if it plays up to its ability.

With an eye toward impressing the College Football Playoff committee, too, Ohio State should keep its foot on the gas pedal for all four quarters even if it is able to pull away in the first half.

Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction
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