With the season just a week away, our season preview rolls on with a fresh installment of the 11W roundtable.
Each week, we'll feature three 11W writers and tackle that week's pressing topics.
Today's episode hits the core questions facing the Buckeyes as they enter the season with sky-high expectations despite uncertainty within a few position, even with a seemingly endless list of high-end talent.
Ramzy Nasrallah, Chris Lauderback and Matt Gutridge get us started as the Buckeyes prepare to enter game-week in preparation for the season opener next Thursday in Minneapolis against Minnesota.
C.J. Stroud earned the start against Minnesota and most are bullish he'll remain The Guy throughout the season. It won't hurt he's surrounded with elite pass catchers in Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jeremy Ruckert, to name a few. What's Stroud's ceiling in year one as a starter? Can he be a Heisman finalist?
Ramzy: My first thought when Chris Olave announced he was staying for his senior season was holy shit I did not see that coming. My second thought was holy shit Stroud must really be That Guy. I have him as a Heisman finalist simply because when Olave turned down millions of guaranteed dollars for another year of college, he was betting his already-high draft position on a guy whose next pass will be his first. That’s all I need to know.
Chris: I feel like Ryan Day's known Stroud is his guy for 2021 since before the 2020 season ended. Of course he was going to slow play the thing and if Kyle McCord or Jack Miller went bananas then great but I think the reality is Day's been thinking about how to best organize the surrounding parts with Stroud at the controls since the day after Ohio State's loss to Alabama. Stroud might have some early growing pains but performing behind a mammoth offensive line and throwing to elite talents like Olave and Wilson, among others, should set him up to flirt with Heisman consideration although I think he falls just short of an NYC invite.
Matt: With the accolades he is receiving from his talented receivers, it appears the sky's the limit for Stroud. With exceptional playmakers at his disposal, I will not be surprised if Stroud surpasses the 3,273 yards Fields threw for in 2019. However, reaching Haskins’ school record of 4,831 yards and 50 touchdowns might be out of the question.
If Stroud’s numbers land between Fields’ and Haskins’ passing yards, if he has less than eight interceptions, and the Buckeyes have a running threat in the backfield, Ohio State’s offense will be in line for some gaudy numbers.
Yes, Stroud can be a Heisman finalist. In fact, with Day in Columbus, first-year starting quarterbacks being a Heisman finalist has become the new normal. Haskins and Fields were Heisman finalists in their first seasons as starters.
If Stroud goes to New York, he will be the fourth Buckeye to get the coveted invitation since 2018. How impressive is this potential trend? Between 1982 and 2017, only four Ohio State players (can you name them?) were finalists for the coveted trophy.
How do you see the running back situation shaking out as the season wears on? Are we looking at an extended by-committee approach in which all of Miyan Williams, Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson see meaningful carries? Or maybe one guy puts a stranglehold on the No. 1 spot? Who finished the season as the team's leading rusher?
Matt: I see all three getting carries early in the year. With Miyan and Master getting the edge due to their time with the program. However, by the end of the season, I expect TreVeyon to be the No. 1 back due to all of the intangibles he brings to the table.
Henderson is a gifted runner who can also hurt defenses with his receiving ability. Not sure how well he pass-protects, but if TreVeyon is decent the No. 1 job is within his grasp.
Although it is being reported that Teague’s vision is getting better, I see the 2021 season playing out with Teague being used for short-yardage/goal line situations and Williams giving Henderson a breather on occasion. At the end of the season, I’ll go with TreVeyon (that’s a fun name to say) being on the top of the list for rushing yards.
Ramzy: I think we’ll begin the season with Master Teague on account of familiarity, reliability and pass protection - kind of like last season. Williams, Henderson and Evan Pryor will close their respective familiarity gaps. The question becomes if Teague finally adds the wiggle elusiveness to his breakaway speed and becomes that difference-making back that Trey Sermon evolved into after what’s normally a third of a season.
If he does that early on, it’s going to be hard for the others to erode into his grasp on RB1. If he doesn’t, it’s wide open, with Henderson having the most upside. I don’t think you can discount the importance of a bonafide veteran in the backfield with a first-year starting QB, at least into October.
Chris: I expect Miyan Williams to get the first carry of the season but I'm guessing he and Teague share the bulk of the carries over the first two weeks. From there, I won't be surprised if if Williams is the typical starter / lead back with TreVeyon Henderson eating further into Teague's reps. By season's end, Williams continues to be the primary with Henderson and Teague playing backup but with Henderson having ate significantly into Teague's role.
It's hard to envision a scenario in which the offense struggles to score but what about the defense? Last year, the pass defense was a major issue, ranking No. 122 in aerial yardage allowed per game. How much better will Ohio State in slowing the pass this fall? Give us a player or two you think will be crucial to expected improvement.
Chris: I wrote earlier this month that I can't forecast the pass defense doing better than shaving off 75 yards per game from the 304 it gave up last year. That would likely take the unit from No. 122 in pass defense last year to about the top 60 this year. I'm hoping a young guy can emerge as a reliable corner opposite Sevyn Banks. I think the safeties are going to be fine but man that No. 2 corner spot remains a concern for me, at least for this year, unless a young guy explodes onto the scene. I won't discount that possibility - I'm just not banking on it.
Matt: Well, there isn’t much farther for the pass defense to fall. Last year, the “defense” gave up 304.0 passing yards per game and opposing quarterbacks had an average QBR of 143.1. Both results are the worst an Ohio State defense has ever allowed in the history of the program. So yes, compared to those historically atrocious numbers, the Buckeyes’ pass defense will be better.
I’m looking at Haskell Garrett and the rest of the defensive line to help this year’s secondary to produce better results. The Silver Bullets of 2017, ’18 and ’19 ranked in the top 10 at Ohio State for sacks per game. Last year’s squad comes in at No. 19. With more pressure brings less accurate passes and less yards allowed.
Also, it’s Coombs’ second year back on the sideline. Although there are some green players, there should be no excuses from an X’s and O’s stand point. By the way, how’s Jeff Hafley doing at Boston College? Any chance he’ll bring his historically great pass defense back to Columbus? He was the man.
Ramzy: The secondary was already dicey when Coombs didn’t get Spring to shape the scheme or players and it was cooked when Cameron Brown went down. It’s like after the 2016 secondary all went pro and the depth just wasn’t there to reload, but with coaching turnover to boot. Aside from the veterans coming back I’m expecting Lathan Ransom and Lejond Cavazos to emerge. My wildcard is Cameron Martinez.
With so many starters from last year's squad off to the NFL, there will be tons of chances for less-established guys to bust out. Give us a breakout player on either side of the ball. If you've already covered that guy within the questions above, give us an under-the-radar guy who could make a strong impact? If you've already covered both of those, hell, just make something up.
Ramzy: It’s officially the Year of Teeraw, and we are all witnesses. Teradja Mitchell will stoke some latent Departed Linebacker angst, an Ohio State fan tradition. On offense, and this may have a tinge of wishful thinking sprinkled into it, I can definitely see Gee Scott Jr. learning his way into abusing defenses in somewhat abrupt fashion over the final third of the schedule.
Chris: I'm all-in on #MYHITTA too. All through fall camp he seemed like the one linebacker you could Sharpie as a starter as what feels like a dozen other guys make a bid for the Mike spot. Then earlier this week, Day raved about Mitchell's leadership. If I had to bet on it, I'd take Mitchell as Ohio State's leading tackler once the dust settles on the 2021 campaign. And I'm aware Josh Proctor is a known commodity with lots of snaps under his belt but I expect him to make a run and earn at least second-team All-Big Ten honors this year.
Matt: As mentioned above, Stroud and Henderson are in positions to be break out players on offense. So, let’s try to find an under-the-radar guy. I’m leaning on a top secret inside source that I hope has the goods. Ronnie Hickman (bullet) and TE Cade Stover are guys that will have a lot of playing time and can make impact.
All right, here come the most important questions.. How does Ohio State's season play out? Michigan gonna get wrecked? Big Ten champs? CFP noise? Let us know how far the Buckeyes go and pick a team MVP.
Matt: The Wolverines will get the curb stomping (graphic vid lol) they ducked out of last year. Day stays undefeated in B1G play. The Buckeyes win their fifth straight conference title and make the College Football Playoff. In the preview, I have Ohio State losing to their first-round opponent, but the fan side of me has them in the title game. What happens on that night is always a coin flip, so what the hell, Bucks win this year’s championship.
Although Stroud should have impressive numbers, the MVP on offense will be Chris Olave and Haskell Garrett gets the defensive MVP. For those wondering, the four Heisman finalists between 1982 and 2017 were Keith Byars (’84), Eddie George (’95), Orlando Pace (’96) and Troy Smith (’06).
Ramzy: They’ll run the table again and land the No.2 CFP slot. Michigan is in big trouble and their regular season finale is going to be a hostile environment for the home team. Ohio State beats Iowa in Indianapolis, Oklahoma in the CFP semi and Georgia in the CFP title game. CJ Stroud will be the team’s MVP for his ability to distribute footballs. If I’m wrong about all of this, we’ll be disappointed together.
Chris: Ohio State strips Michigan of what little manhood it has remaining and waltzes into the CFP as an undefeated No. 2 seed. From there however, I have the Buckeyes beating Clemson again in a semifinal matchup before falling to Alabama in the national title game. I know a fair amount of folks are on the Georgia train when it comes to the SEC this year but I'll reserve such a pick until Kirby Smart actually does something well other than recruit. I'll freely admit, I used to hate on Nick Saban but the reality is he's in a class by himself. Day will have to wait - but just for one more year - to claim his first national title in Columbus.
