After a weird win on the road at Minnesota last week that saw the Ohio State offense score 45 points on 48 plays while the defense played 24 guys, the Buckeyes return to Columbus for the home-opener against Oregon at high noon in the Shoe.
The No. 12 Ducks made the trip east for a 9:00 a.m. local time kick after a pretty unimpressive 31-24 win over Fresno State in which their best player, Kayvon Thibodeaux suffered a lower leg injury, putting his status, or at least effectiveness, in doubt for tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is poised to slim down the rotations on defense at running back while expecting quarterback C.J. Stroud to produce a more consistent performance in what will be his second career start.
To get your mind right for the action, we welcome 11W staffers Griffin Strom, Kyle Jones and Andy Vance to this week's roundtable. Let's go duck hunting, boys..
C.J. Stroud didn't look all that comfortable last week versus Minnesota in his first collegiate yet he still threw for 294 yards and four touchdowns. What will you be looking for on Saturday to signal he's made a solid leap from game one to game two? What kind of production do you see for him against the Ducks?
Kyle: Stroud seemed to work through his initial jitters and looked like a different player in the fourth quarter of the Minnesota game. Ideally, that's the player we see on Saturday, but keeping him clean in the pocket will be key. The O-line played very well against the Gophers and Stroud had more time than he realized, as he forced some throws before his feet were set early in the game. If he's able to stay comfortable in the pocket, I expect we'll see him deliver a few more of those deep over routes off play-action that resulted in big touchdowns for Olave and Wilson, creating some big numbers in the box score for the young QB.
Griffin: The two things that concerned me most about Stroud’s performance in the season opener were his lack of full field vision, which led to several occasions where wide open receivers ran down the field without seeing a target come their way, and the inaccuracy he showed on a handful of throws to equally wide open Buckeyes when he did identify them. If Stroud cuts down on the number of instances in which either of those things are glaringly obvious, it will be a clear sign of improvement for the young Ohio State quarterback.
Given that Stroud put up monster numbers and won Big Ten Freshman of the Week for a game in which he admittedly looked shotty at times, it’s hard to envision him not throwing for more than 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns – at minimum – with the weapons at his disposal. Oregon allowed Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener to throw for just under 300 yards just last weekend, which isn’t a great sign for the Ducks coming into this one.
Andy: He settled down pretty well after the half. It’s a helluva thing to throw for less than 60 yards in the first half and then toss four scores after intermission, and I think that got overlooked by folks doing the not-unexpected freakout that the sky was falling when the Gophers led at the break. One thing Stroud undoubtedly noticed was that he got to stay upright pretty much all night. After giving up a sack in every game last season, the Buckeye offensive line didn’t allow a one against Minnesota, and that bodes well for a young quarterback finding his feet.
With the receiving corps he has at his disposal and a solid front protecting him, I expect to see Stroud play with a lot more confidence against Oregon, a team that statistically isn’t much stronger on defense than Minnesota was last week. Most of those early passes he missed were balls he overthrew, so I’ll be watching to see if he dials it in now that he has those first-game jitters out of his system. I’m also curious to see if he targets Chris Olave more this week; Olave caught four of the six balls Stroud threw his way; Garrett Wilson got far more targets so I’ll be looking to see if Wilson just emerges as Stroud’s favorite target, or if he finds Olave more this week.
Despite all the talent backing up starting receivers Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, second-teamers Julian Fleming, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka didn't really see the field until late versus Minnesota, and all played less than nine snaps. Does that change this week? If so, which guy do you like to maybe come up with a big play?
Andy: Ohio State played a shockingly small number of plays on offense last week by dint of scoring quickly in the second half and due in no small part to Minnesota’s strategy of pounding the ball and working the clock. With the Gophers in striking distance late and Wilson and Olave playing brilliantly, I wasn’t at all surprised to see them getting the bulk of the reps. If Ohio State gets off to a faster start this week than I would expect to see Fleming and Harrison on the field more in the second half. It’s no secret that Brian Hartline has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, so how he manages that talent this season should be a fun storyline to watch play out.
Kyle: The only way those young guys see meaningful snaps against the Ducks is if the game is put away early. People love to see the freshmen get on the field, but there should be absolutely no desire to see Olave and Wilson on the sidelines. They are the two best players on the entire roster, and it's not really a debate. If/when the Buckeyes have a comfortable lead late in the game, then yes, get those young guys snaps, but those opportunities will come over the next few weeks as the level of competition drops.
Griffin: Olave and Wilson continue to prove that the Buckeyes have no real need to substitute them for any alternative, even if there are five-star talents waiting in the wings and chomping at the bit for their own opportunities. The fact that Ohio State saw its fewest offensive snaps (48) since 2015 last week certainly played a major role in Fleming, Harrison and Egbuka not seeing the field for more than a handful of plays as well, so the trio should theoretically see a bit more time if that statistic looks more normal this week.
Despite being just a true freshman, I’ll go with Egbuka as the player most likely to come up with a big play out of those three this week. Olave and Wilson are pillars of the Buckeye offense on the outside, and even though Smith-Njigba graded out as a champion in Week 1, he saw just two targets. Granted, Stroud missed the second-year wideout on a few plays, but maybe Brian Hartline gives Egbuka a crack at making things happen in the middle of the field if the receiving production in the slot remains low.
Last week, Minnesota featured a grind-it-out offense behind Mohamed Ibrahim and a huge offensive line. This week, Oregon will attempt to attack Ohio State in more ways than one. Ducks quarterback isn't an elite player but he's a dual-threat guy that will look to make plays. Will Ohio State's defense be successful in adjusting to Oregon's more diverse offense? What kind of day do you expect from Kerry Coombs' group?
Griffin: With the Buckeye defense clearly still evolving at this stage of the season, particularly when it comes to the personnel on the field, there are a few interesting storylines to key in on ahead of the Oregon matchup. Anthony Brown’s run threat at the quarterback position will be a new wrinkle that the new-look Ohio State defense did not see against Tanner Morgan and the Gophers last week, and the Buckeyes’ run defense didn’t look impenetrable by any means in the opener, having allowed more than 200 yards to Minnesota on the ground.
The weakness of Kerry Coombs’ unit, coming on the heels of last season, was supposed to be the pass defense, but Morgan and company didn’t exactly scorch the Buckeyes in that department last week. Brown was even less productive than Morgan through the air in his season debut for the Ducks, but Oregon may possess considerably more speed on the outside than Minnesota, which means the Ohio State secondary is not in the clear – especially if a couple of its projected starters remain on the sideline again this week.
Andy: The first thing I expect to see is more pressure on the quarterback, which should take some pressure of Coombs’ backfield. Minnesota ran what felt like a dozen offensive lineman on every play, so we didn’t see as much of the Buckeye pass rush we’d gotten used to with Chase Young and the Bosa brothers. With a more normal offensive line and a scheme that will try to pass more than the Gophers did, I think that opens up opportunities for Larry Johnson’s monsters to go to work and exploit their strengths on the edge.
I’m also looking forward to seeing who plays in the backfield this week. Last week’s personnel situation was interesting for the guys who weren’t available and for the ones who played that we weren’t expecting to see. With the staff still admittedly trying to figure out what lineup gives the team the best chance for success, I’m curious to see if last week’s game film helped solidify things or if we see some different rotations as we see – or don’t see – Sevyn Banks, Cameron Brown and/or Josh Proctor back in the mix against the Ducks.
One thing is clear - Ohio State’s clear weakness is its passing defense. I don’t think Minnesota gave us a true picture of what improvements, if any, Coombs and company made in shoring up the Buckeyes’ biggest vulnerability. Then again the Buckeye offense is so good, I’m not sure it matters much until January.
Kyle: I expect we'll finally get to see the defense Kerry Coombs has wanted to put on the field for a year-and-a-half. Last year, COVID made it impossible to do pretty much anything new, hence why the Buckeye defense essentially 'ran it back' from the year prior, but without Chase Young and two first-round corners. Then, Minnesota showed up with seven offensive linemen on every first down, and Coombs essentially had to run his goal-line package in response. The Ducks will be a more straight-forward challenge, however, and we should see the 4-2-5 system we've long been promised. Much the same way Coombs unveiled a number of new wrinkles (including playing two deep safeties) against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, I am expecting some new looks in this highly anticipated contest, and Anthony Brown isn't Trevor Lawrence, which makes me feel good about Ohio State's chances.
Expanding to the national scene, there are plenty of interesting storylines. Georgia beat Clemson in a low-scoring affair, Bama didn't skip a beat despite losing a ton of talent at key positions to the NFL and Alex Grinch continued to steal from Oklahoma, to name a few. What's one surprising storyline, player or team that's caught your attention at this incredibly early juncture of the season?
Kyle: This is the year defense becomes 'cool' again. After years of offensive dominance across the board, there are two major factors that may lead to this change in direction across the sport. 1) The most important element of any defense is cohesion, regardless of scheme. With so many programs returning eight, nine, or ten starters thanks to the extra year of eligibility granted due to COVID, there will be more veteran defenses than usual this season. 2) After a couple years of great QB play, there is a major drop-off at that position this fall. Look at how Sam Howell and Spencer Rattler struggled last weekend compared to what we're used to seeing from Heisman-contending quarterbacks over the past few years. This is not to say points will be down and every game will finish 10-3 like the Georgia-Clemson game, but what separates the contenders from the pretenders may be the ability to strike fear in an opposing offense for the first time in a while. We know Alabama, Georgia, and even Clemson can do that. Who else has a defense that can say the same this fall?
Griffin: As Clemson has become a regular postseason adversary for the Buckeyes at this point, it’s hard to overlook a standout stat about the Tigers that I’ve been banging the drum for since last weekend. Dabo Swinney and company are 3-3 in their past six games dating back to last season, and the Clemson head coach has now lost back-to-back contests for the first time in a decade. The Clemson offensive line has looked vulnerable in consecutive games now, albeit to top-level competition, and the Tigers’ aura of invincibility has taken a hit.
Even so, it’ll be difficult to rule Clemson out of College Football Playoff contention given an 11-game regular season schedule the rest of the way that includes the likes of South Carolina State, Connecticut and no currently ranked opponents at all.
Andy: Clemson stinks, man, and the entire ACC looks like fools gold. I knew the Tigers would take a step back with all the talent they lost to the NFL after last season, but holy smokes did they look awful against the Dawgs. And look, I get that Georgia fields the No. 2 defense in the country according to SP+, but let’s not pretend they’re Alabama or the ’85 Bears… Clemson was just bad.
Add to that the regression to mean we saw out of UNC, and the futility of Miami versus Alabama, and I think it is entirely possible that the ACC could be this year’s Pac-12 come time for the Playoffs: on the outside looking in.
Ohio State is a hefty 14.5-point favorite against the Ducks tomorrow. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
Andy: Ryan Day is amazing versus the spread, and Oregon isn’t the same Oregon we’ve seen in years past. The Buckeyes cover running away, 45-24, as C.J. Stroud follows up a four-touchdown performance last week with a Big Ten Player of the Week-worthy outing at home in the Horseshoe.
Kyle: I expect this one to be close for maybe a half, with the Buckeyes leaning on a quietly dominant offensive line in addition to the aforementioned Olave and Wilson who will wear out the Ducks' defense. While the Ducks have a strong, physical run game with just enough bells and whistles to keep defenses on their heels, the Buckeyes should have a major advantage on third downs. Brown simply isn't the kind of QB who can beat the talent OSU has in the secondary, inexperienced as it may be. I expect a comfortable, 35-14 win in front of the home crowd, with Wilson scoring a pair of touchdowns and leading off the highlight reels.
Griffin: The Buckeyes fail to cover, just by a hair, as I’m predicting a 38-24 Ohio State win to give the Buckeyes back-to-back victories by a two-touchdown margin to open the 2021 season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ducks put up more points than that on Coombs’ defense, but the Fresno State performance isn’t inspiring a whole lot of confidence at this juncture. As far as an MVP, let’s go with Miyan Williams, who should see a steadier diet of carries to potentially solidify himself as the No. 1 running back this week.
