After a week two loss to Oregon at home, Ohio State has zero margin for error in its quest to earn not only a Big Ten title but also a College Football Playoff bid.
Ryan Day's squad regrouped after the Ducks pulled the upset, reeling off five straight wins by a combined score of 272-64.
The offense has looked unstoppable and the defense looks to have made strides but it's hard to be certain since the Buckeyes played such lackluster competition during the winning streak.
A much stiffer test awaits tomorrow night as No. 20 Penn State comes to town trying to stop a two-game skid.
To get you prepped for the contest, we welcome 11W's own Kyle Jones, Andy Vance and George Eisner to this week's roundtable.
Ohio State’s defense smothered a battered Indiana team after an opening drive in which the Hoosiers converted four straight third downs and marched 75 yards for a score. Penn State has its own injury concerns at quarterback with Sean Clifford looking beat up last Saturday versus Illinois although James Franklin says he's 100%. Will Penn State be able to move the ball on Saturday? Any concerns Jahan Dotson lights up the Buckeyes and helps Penn State keep it closer than most experts expect?
Kyle: Despite lighting up Auburn and Villanova, Clifford hasn't looked great against anyone in the Big Ten this year. Now, as he battles back from injury, there's no reason to believe that changes. One big reason is the lack of any consistent running game for the Nittany Lions. Without a real ground threat, teams have been less worried about their Run-Pass Options, letting defensive lines handle the run game by getting penetration while the back seven envelopes the pass. With OSU's new approach to defending such concepts looking better and better this week, there's little reason to think Clifford will be able to do much.
Andy: Penn State’s offense hasn’t been one of the more-prolific units in the Big Ten this season - consider as an example that Penn State only scored 24 points against the Indiana defense in Beaver Stadium, while Ohio State just laid 54 on the Hoosiers in Bloomington. Penn State is only averaging 27 points a game, while Ohio State is allowing only 19 on the season, and a paltry 11 points per game over the past four outings. Quite simply I don’t think Penn State is anywhere near dynamic enough, even if Clifford is fully healthy, to go crazy on this rejuvenated Buckeye defense.
Dotson is good, and if this was a year ago I might sweat a little given how pitiful the Buckeyes were in giving up crazy yardage to big-time receivers. But that hasn’t been the knock on this year’s defense, oddly enough. And when comparing Dotson to the receiving corps the Buckeyes see every day in practice, he’s just okay - consider that his season average of 11.5 yards per catch would be 0.1 yards behind tight-end Jeremy Ruckert’s season average, and nearly 5 yards per catch less than Chris Olave (16.2) who has the smallest yards per catch average of Ohio State’s top three receivers.
George: I expect a similar script to last year given the familiar efficiency and blistering pace of the Buckeye passing game. Ohio State may not pour on the points immediately as they have in previous weeks, but I would be shocked if they do not enjoy a three score lead by halftime as they nearly did in last year's meeting with Penn State. The Nittany Lions will score garbage time points in the second half, but nothing that realistically gets them back into the game.
My only concern is for Denzel Burke — not because I am frightened of his odds to keep up with Jahan Dotson, but because he put the pressure on himself this week by declaring the best skill player Penn State has to be nothing he can't handle. Even though the pressure on Ohio State as a team was light last year after the offense raced out to an early lead, Dotson still thoroughly roasted Shaun Wade in what ultimately began the season-long evaporation of the eventual 4th rounder's draft stock.
Burke has played beyond expectations from the moment he became Ohio State's first true freshman to start a season opener on defense in 25 years. If he does lock down the best Nittany Lion on the other side of the ball, give him the green light to say whatever he wants about any other Big Ten receiver the rest of the season.
Sticking with the defense, what’s one area of Ohio State’s retooled scheme and player rotation that still gives you cause for pause, particularly if/when the Buckeyes face a top notch offense? Can that deficiency be fixed this year?
George: While it has been a fun success story to watch Steele Chambers blossom into a serviceable linebacker after switching over from running back this offseason, there has not been much more positive buzz concerning that area of the defense. In that sense, coaches heaping praise on the development of a former skill player in wake of two multi-year members of the position group heading for the portal should make it somewhat obvious where the most glaring concern remains.
There may not be an easy fix this year. Eichenberg's "Night King" nickname is well deserved given he often looks like he's playing at the speed of a frozen zombie. Cody Simon and Teradja Mitchell have made great plays here-and-there, but the overall talent and depth of the linebacking core will be an ongoing concern as competition level continues to increase. It is quite possible next season we end up seeing C.J. Hicks play a similar role to the one we have seen from Denzel Burke in 2021.
Andy: I’ll continue to harp on the linebackers as my biggest area of concern. The defensive backs are doing what needs to be done and the defensive lineman have looked a lot more aggressive the past few games which has been a much-needed breath of fresh air. Against a top-shelf offense (the likes of which Ohio State may not face until the playoffs), I’ll have some nervousness about the linebackers. As my esteemed colleague Mr. Jones pointed out in previous Film Study columns here and here Matt Barnes’ changes to the defensive scheme has put the linebackers in a better position to succeed and it seems that largely they have, particularly against stopping the runs that gashed Ohio State in those early games and most notably against Oregon. I still have some concerns about the level of talent at the linebacker position relative to expectations, and that might be something you can only fix through recruiting.
Kyle: My biggest concern remains this defense's ability to tackle consistently. While many of the young DBs have played well in recent weeks, looking more and more comfortable in Matt Barnes' scheme, there have still been the occasional poor angles and failures to wrap up. Against the past 5 opponents, that hasn't been an issue, but athletes like Dotson can make a defense pay for not making a clean tackle. Ensuring PSU doesn't turn 7-yard slants into 70-yard runs after the catch will be critical on Saturday night.
Penn State’s defense is ranked No. 6 in the country giving up just 14.7 points per game and slots No. 15 giving up only 178 passing yards per contest. That said, C.J. Stroud and company enter the game as the nation’s top-ranked scoring and total offense so something has to give. Will Stroud keep his hot streak going against such a strong secondary? Might this be a game where TreVeyon Henderson actually gets at least 20 touches and goes off? Project production from those two.
Kyle: I expect Henderson to have a big night, but not in the way many expect. Penn State always brings its A-game to matchups with Ohio State, and it's evident that they focus on taking away OSU's foundational concepts. As a result, we have seen more plays like Garrett Wilson's long jet sweep on the first play of last season's contest. I expect Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson will likely dip a little deeper into the playbook with more quick screens to the receivers as well as delayed screens for Henderson to make plays as a receiver, rather than just handing him the ball to run wide-zone 20 times.
George: At the moment, there may not be a defense in college football with enough tools in the box to match all of the weapons Ohio State can put on the field at once as receiving threats. However, as is the case with most young quarterbacks, the key to unnerving Stroud will be Penn State's ability to generate pressure in the pocket. While Stroud played at less than 100% in his first two games, Minnesota and Oregon both did a good job of getting pressure in the early and late stages of their respective games to throw the redshirt freshman off his game.
But unlike most Penn State teams in recent memory, this one does not feature a caliber pass rush. Their defensive line ranks 69th among 130 teams in college football for overall sack rate, and they are among the 20 worst teams in the sport at generating sacks on early downs according to Football Outsiders. If Stroud can navigate whatever blitzes the Nittany Lions throw at him, the Buckeyes will cruise to a victory.
But TreyVeyon Henderson will get his fair share, as well. Penn State is much better at defending the pass than the run, and Henderson hasn't handled a full workload in a competitive game since his breakout performance against Tulsa over a month ago. He will be instrumental in setting up the passing game for the Buckeyes, but I'll stop short of saying he gets 20 touches given I expect Ohio State to go up big early on.
Andy: I hate to play the “Penn State ain’t played nobody” card because, well, the same can be said with regard to the teams Ohio State has defeated this season. But it is abundantly clear that Penn State hasn’t played an offense remotely like the offense Stroud is leading. The Buckeyes clocked in at No. 1 in offensive SP+ this week and the second-place offense (Oklahoma) is 4.5 points behind. On a neutral field, SP+ would give the Buckeyes a 0.7 point advantage over Georgia, the consensus No. 1 team in the country, so I’m not sweating Penn State in the least.
I think Stroud and his elite receivers feast as they have been in recent weeks; Stroud will throw for 300+ and at least 3… probably 4 touchdowns and will once again be your Big Ten freshman of the week. Henderson won’t get 20 touches (he’s averaging 11 carries per game) but he will continue to look like one of the best backs in the country, turning in 8 yards a carry and adding a pair of touchdowns to his tally.
Michigan and Michigan State throw hands at high-noon in East Lansing. Will it be Jim Harbaugh or Mel Tucker advancing to the winner’s circle? Justify your pick.
Andy: Boy oh boy this will be an interesting one to watch. SP+ would give the Wolverines a 6-point advantage on a neutral field, so with the game happening in East Lansing you trim that to 3.5; I think the line is something like -4, so the sharps and the data are pretty much on the same page. What Mel Tucker has done in getting this program back on track so quickly is impressive; at the same time, credit to Harbaugh for not folding like a house of cards once September drew to a close, either. With State’s relatively narrow win over Indiana and Michigan barely escaping Lincoln, this feels like one that could truly go either way. I’m going to call it the Fightin’ Khakis, though, because I think they’ll be just hungry enough to keep Little Brother in check.
Kyle: I'll say Mel Tucker and the Spartans come out ahead in this one, if only because I have more faith in their talented backfield than I do in their opponents'. That said, there is absolutely no outcome that would shock me in this game. It could go to 10 overtimes or either team could blow the other out, and I could easily understand why. I can't wait to watch it.
George: This is the only noon game that the Viewing Guide will recommend on Saturday, so I will save most of my thoughts for then. But as a Bears fan scarred by Mel Tucker's stint as a defensive coordinator in Chicago almost a decade ago, my heart will not allow me to place any faith in Sparty as long as he is head coach. However, as long as I'm invoking Tucker's NFL career, perhaps it's worth noting that his Bears defense forced Colin Kaepernick to commit four turnovers when Jim Harbaugh was coaching the San Francisco 49ers in 2014.
History between the coaches aside, Michigan is the more impressive football team and has the more experienced head coach. I expect them to win — and at this point, I sincerely hope for an undefeated edition of Michigan by the time The Game arrives. Wolverine tears are that much more delicious when mutual seasons hang in the balance.
Ohio State opened as a 15-point favorite and the line quickly swelled to 18.5. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
George: Bucks may cover by halftime. Penn State just doesn't have the firepower to keep pace. Same story as last year, same old Clifford the Big Slow Lion.
45-21 final. Stroud once again just barely beats out Henderson for MVP, but the two will waltz their way into another impressive scoring performance.
Andy: I’ve been hesitant to just call these recent Ohio State games blowouts of the type we saw last Saturday, but it’s become abundantly clear that this offense is for real, and is legitimately the best offense in the country by a reasonable margin. I’m still not entirely sold that this defense can hold teams to <14 week in and week out through November, but Penn State’s offense doesn’t scare me in the least. Not a jot or tittle. With that in mind I’m calling it 49-21 Ohio State improves to 6-2 against the spread this season. Stroud is your MVP based on that 300+ yard, 4-touchdown performance I mentioned earlier.
Kyle: OSU wins 42-24 with Henderson earning more adoration on national TV. Penn State is able to get a couple of stops early and even gets on the board after a well-scripted opening drive gets them into the end zone, but eventually, the Buckeyes get rolling. Henderson proves to be Stroud's favorite receiver as a check-down who proves incapable of being tackled in space, keeping the chains moving, and, more importantly, forcing Penn State's offense to play from behind.
