It’s been more than a month since Ohio State has faced any real in-game adversity, but that could change on Saturday.
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| #20 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS |
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5-2 (2-2 B1G) ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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7:30 P.M. – SATURDAY, OCT. 30 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO |
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ABC WatchESPN |
For the first time since its loss to then-No. 12 (and currently No. 7) Oregon on Sept. 11 in its second game of the year, Ohio State will face another ranked opponent on Saturday when it hosts 20th-ranked Penn State in a game that’s been circled on the calendar all year long as one of the biggest potential tests of the Buckeyes’ regular season.
Since the Buckeyes finished out September with a 59-7 rout of Akron, each of their last three games were supposed to be progressively tougher tests. The Buckeyes aced each of those tests with ease, beating Rutgers by 39, Maryland by 49 and Indiana by 47.
Penn State, on the other hand, has lost each of its last two games, including a 20-18 loss to Illinois in college football’s first-ever nine-overtime game last week. As such, this week’s game has gone from what was expected to be a battle of top-10 teams to merely a matchup of top-20 teams, and plenty of people are expecting the rolling Buckeyes to win big over the reeling Nittany Lions.
Eight of the last 10 games between Ohio State and Penn State, however, have been decided by 13 points or fewer, including all of the last five. A game between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions typically means a game that’s tightly contested for four quarters, and Ryan Day says he’s expecting nothing less from Saturday’s game.
“When you look at the games that we’ve had with them in the past, they’re always a dogfight,” Day said Tuesday. “That’s just the way it’s been. And I know it’s gonna be that way. They have a lot of pride … They’re one of the best programs in the country. It’s hard to beat these types of teams. And we know when Penn State comes into town, we gotta be on our game, and this is gonna be one of those games where it’s gonna be physical back and forth, and we gotta start fast and be ready to play for four quarters.”
The Headlines
Best defense Ohio State has faced
Statistically, Penn State’s defense will be the best Ohio State has faced so far this season. The Nittany Lions are currently ranked fifth in the Football Bowl Subdivision in yards allowed per play (4.31), sixth in points allowed per game (14.7) and 26th in yards allowed per game (324.4); Minnesota is the only other team Ohio State has played that ranks in the top 25 in any of those categories.
The Nittany Lions haven’t allowed more than 23 points in any of their seven games so far this year. They’ve been one of the best teams in the country at stopping the pass, allowing just 5.17 yards per pass attempt, the third-best mark in the nation.
Penn State’s run defense was shaky in last week’s loss, when Illinois ran for 357 yards on a whopping 67 attempts, though the Nittany Lions still held the Illini to just 10 points in regulation.
The Nittany Lions also haven’t faced any offense like Ohio State’s top-ranked unit. Aside from Auburn, who ranks 23rd nationally in total offense and 31st nationally in scoring offense, no other FBS opponent Penn State has played ranks better than 74th in scoring offense (Iowa) or 90th in total offense (Wisconsin).
Nonetheless, Penn State is far more capable of slowing down Ohio State’s offense – which has scored on all but one possession with C.J. Stroud on the field in each of the last three games – than the defenses the Buckeyes have bullied for the past month.
“They have a very good scheme, very good players,” Day said. “When you look at their front, they’re very active. The linebackers are very good. And the back end is veteran now. They’ve played a lot of football. So they’re one of the better defenses in the country in my opinion. There’s a lot that goes into that. I think it’s scheme, I think it’s coaching but they have really good personnel, as well.”
Even so, Ohio State will take the same mentality into this week’s game that it’s had all season – to score every time it gets the ball – and its offensive players are looking forward to the opportunity to go head-to-head with one of the best defenses in the country.
“We all are looking forward to the challenge, just to see where we are at and just to keep it going,” Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba said this week.
Penn State’s offense is struggling
While Penn State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, its offense has had problems. In five games against Power 5 opponents, the Nittany Lions have averaged just 21.2 points and 322.2 yards per game.
Their offense has particularly struggled in their last two games since starting quarterback Sean Clifford was injured in the second quarter of Penn State’s loss to Iowa. While the Nittany Lions had an early 17-3 lead against the Hawkeyes, they scored just three points on 11 possessions after Ta’Quan Roberson replaced Clifford in that game. Clifford was able to return to action against Illinois, but he didn’t appear to be healthy as he completed just 19 of 34 passes for 165 yards and finished with a career-worst net rushing total of minus-28 yards.
Whether he actually will be might not be clear until the game begins, but Clifford said Wednesday that he believes he will be fully healthy by Saturday.
“Obviously, I didn't feel 100 percent (against Illinois), but at the same time I felt good enough to play,” Clifford said. “This week, I really truly believe that I will be 100 percent by the end of the week.”
The Nittany Lions are probably going to need Clifford to be at his best to have a chance against Ohio State, as their running game has been ineffective all season, ranking 99th nationally in yards per rushing attempt (3.54) and 100th in rushing yards per game (119.7).
Sean Clifford has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his last three starts. (Photo: Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports)
A big home night game, finally
Since Fox became the Big Ten’s primary television partner and decided to start televising its premier game of the week at noon, most of Ohio State’s marquee home games have been played during the daytime. Buckeye fans who have been calling for a big game under the lights in the Shoe are finally getting their wish this week, though, as Saturday night’s game will kick off at 7:30 p.m. on ABC’s Saturday Night Football.
Ohio State is expecting a crowd of at least 102,000 inside Ohio Stadium on Saturday night, and it’s encouraging fans to wear scarlet and “Scarlet the Shoe” while the Buckeyes on the field will be debuting all-scarlet Color Rush uniforms.
A night game against a ranked opponent should mean a raucous environment in Columbus on Saturday night, and Day believes that can be a “huge advantage” for the Buckeyes.
“I’m asking Buckeye Nation to be really, really loud when Penn State has the football, and I mean really loud, so that they struggle to communicate. Because when they do, that’s a huge advantage for our defense,” Day said. “The last time Penn State was here, I thought the crowd was unbelievable, and if we can replicate that again, that would be huge for us.”
Because a Saturday night game gives recruits more time to travel to Columbus after playing high school games on Friday nights, it will also be the biggest recruiting weekend of the season, as the Buckeyes are set to host many of their top targets in the 2022, 2023 and 2024 classes for game visits.
“We’ve got a ton of recruits coming into town, and it’s a big deal. They’re able to see the best football environment there is in college football on a Saturday night,” Day said. “You come to Ohio State for games like this. And this is gonna be a great environment.”
Keep An Eye on These Guys
Penn State WR Jahan Dotson
While Ohio State won 38-25 at Penn State last year, Dotson outscored the Buckeyes by himself in the second half, catching three touchdowns in the final two quarters of the game. Highlighted by a pair of spectacular catches against Shaun Wade, Dotson caught eight passes for 144 yards against Ohio State last season.
He’s continued to be the top weapon for Penn State’s offense this year, catching 49 passes for 563 yards and six touchdowns, so the Buckeyes know they need to do a better job of covering him this year.
“Dotson’s one of the better wide receivers in the country, and we gotta know where he is at all times,” Day said. “They’re gonna try to find ways to get him the ball, for sure. So however we go about doing that, that’s part of the schematic stuff that we’ll work on this week, but we have to know exactly where he is.”
Denzel Burke, who will likely be matched up with Dotson on most plays as Ohio State’s No. 1 cornerback, is confident he’ll be up to the task.
“He’s a pretty good receiver. Nothing I can’t handle though,” Burke said this week.
Penn State DE Arnold Ebiketie
Ohio State’s offensive line has done a great job all season of neutralizing opponents’ top pass-rushers and giving Stroud consistent pass protection, but the Buckeyes will go up against the most productive pass-rusher they’ve faced all season when they square off with Ebiketie on Saturday night.
A fifth-year senior transfer from Temple, Ebiketie ranks second in the Big Ten this year in both tackles for loss (11) and sacks (5.5). Ebiketie is graded by Pro Football Focus as the fourth-best defensive player in the entire Big Ten this season. At 6-foot-3 and 256 pounds, Ebiketie has been a consistently disruptive pass-rusher off the edge while he’s also been stout against the run, recording 41 total tackles – the most among Big Ten defensive linemen.
As a pair, Ebiketie and Jesse Luketa could be the best defensive end duo that Ohio State offensive tackle duo Nicholas Petit-Frere and Dawand Jones have had to block this year.
“He’s a real tall guy, real lanky. He has a great pass-rush. He’s really good at bull (rushing),” Petit-Frere said of Ebiketie. “I think both of their D-ends are really good at pass-rushing. So they’re another great matchup, another great week for us to prove ourselves.”
Penn State’s secondary
Led by Joey Porter Jr. and Tariq Castro-Fields at cornerback and Jaquan Brisker and Ji’Ayir Brown at safety, Penn State’s secondary is strong across the board.
Brisker was named this week as one of 12 semifinalists for the Jim Thorpe Award, which honors college football’s best defensive back. Both Brisker and Porter currently rank among the Big Ten’s top five defensive backs in coverage this season per PFF’s grades. Castro-Fields is a fifth-year senior with 24 games of starting experience. All three of them have been third-team All-Big Ten defensive backs, while Brown leads the team with three interceptions and seven total passes defended.
Jaquan Brisker is the leader of Penn State’s secondary. (Photo: Joseph Cress – Iowa City Press-Citizen/USA TODAY NETWORK)
While most secondaries are no match for Ohio State’s star-studded receiving corps led by Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Smith-Njigba and Jeremy Ruckert, Penn State’s secondary is more capable of competing with them than most.
“Castro-Fields has played for a long time. Very good player, veteran, understands that style of defense,” Day said. “Porter played against us last year, very long, very athletic, does a good job in their defense. I think Brisker’s one of the better safeties that we’ve played against this year. He’s physical in the box, he’s athletic, he runs around. I just think across the board, they’re athletic back there and it allows them to run some different schemes. They can man you up, they can zone you up, they can do a couple different things and they do a lot of pressuring down. They’re aggressive with that. And I know they’ll continue to do that in our game.”
Game Week Talk
“It’s most likely not gonna play out the way that the last few games have played out, or play out like any game that’s happened before. We know that and understand that, and have to adapt for whatever that means.”– Ryan Day
After four straight blowout wins in which Ohio State has been able to coast in the second half, Day has clearly tried to get the message across to his team this week that they have to be ready to compete for four full quarters against a better opponent this week.
“It’s really just a 1-0 thing. If you treat it any differently, then you start worrying about the wrong things.”– Sean Clifford on whether there’s extra motivation to beat Ohio State
As a Cincinnati native, Clifford said he is excited to be back in Ohio this weekend and to get to see his many friends and family who will attend the game. He and just about all of his teammates who met with the media this week, though, said that their approach to this week’s game would be the same as it is for any game, citing James Franklin’s “1-0” mantra of just trying to win the game in front of them each week.
“Any time you have three receivers with this kind of talent and this kind of capability and this kind of explosiveness, you have to be prepared to defend on every snap. They put a little bit of stress on your secondary. But we’ve got a good secondary that can rise to this challenge.”– Penn State co-defensive coordinator Anthony Poindexter on Ohio State’s wide receivers
Poindexter, who also coaches Penn State’s safeties, knows his unit will have its hands full going up against the likes of Olave, Wilson and Smith-Njigba, while he’s also been impressed with the improvement Stroud has shown over the course of the season. He believes the Nittany Lions will give themselves a chance, though, if they play as disciplined and as hard as they have all season.
Get Smart
| Ohio State | Pos | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| C.J. STROUD | QB | SEAN CLIFFORD |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | NOAH CAIN |
| CHRIS OLAVE | WR | JAHAN DOTSON |
| GARRETT WILSON | WR | PARKER WASHINGTON |
| JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA | WR | KEANDRE LAMBERT-SMITH |
| JEREMY RUCKERT | TE | BRENTON STRANGE |
| NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE | LT | RASHEED WALKER |
| THAYER MUNFORD | LG | ERIC WILSON |
| LUKE WYPLER | C | JUICE SCRUGGS |
| PARIS JOHNSON JR. | RG | MIKE MIRANDA |
| DAWAND JONES | RT | CAEDAN WALLACE |
| DEFENSE | ||
| ZACH HARRISON | DE | ARNOLD EBIKETIE |
| TYREKE SMITH | DE | JESSE LUKETA |
| HASKELL GARRETT | DT | DERRICK TANGELO |
| TYREKE SMITH | DT | COZIAH IZZARD |
| TERADJA MITCHELL | WLB | BRANDON SMITH |
| CODY SIMON | MLB | ELLIS BROOKS |
| RONNIE HICKMAN | BLT/SLB | CURTIS JACOBS |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | JOEY PORTER JR. |
| SEVYN BANKS | CB | TARIQ CASTRO-FIELDS |
| BRYSON SHAW | S | JAQUAN BRISKER |
| MARCUS WILLIAMSON | S | JI'AYIR BROWN |
- Ohio State has won four straight games against Penn State, the only Big Ten team who the Buckeyes have never won five straight games against.
- This will be the 29th consecutive season Ohio State plays Penn State. Because Ohio State did not play Michigan last year, the Buckeyes have played the Nittany Lions in more consecutive years than any other opponent.
- Saturday’s game will be the 37th game ever between Ohio State and Penn State. The Buckeyes have a 22-14 all-time record against the Nittany Lions.
- Ohio State has won 25 consecutive games against Big Ten opponents (including Big Ten Championship Games) dating back to its 49-20 loss to Purdue on Oct. 20, 2018.
- Both coaching staffs include assistant coaches who previously coached at the opposing school. Ohio State defensive line coach Larry Johnson previously coached defensive linemen at Penn State from 1996-2013, while Penn State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich was previously Ohio State’s passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2019.
- Ohio State’s roster includes three players from Pennsylvania: wide receivers Julian Fleming and Marvin Harrison Jr. and safety Marcus Hooker. Kyle McCord, who is from New Jersey, also played his high school football in Pennsylvania (at Philadelphia’s St. Joseph’s Prep with Harrison).
- Penn State’s roster includes six players from Ohio: Sean Clifford and his younger brother Liam Clifford, a freshman wide receiver, as well as starting offensive linemen Mike Miranda and Juice Scruggs, starting long snapper Chris Stoll and backup defensive tackle Aeneas Hawkins.
- Ohio State’s status report of unavailable players will be released at 4:30 p.m. Saturday.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -19, O/U 61
Although recent history suggests an Ohio State vs. Penn State game is likely to be decided by one or two scores, Vegas sees Saturday’s game being a more decisive victory for the Buckeyes.
Since Ohio State opened as a 15-point favorite on Sunday, the line has climbed a full four points as bettors have expressed confidence in the Buckeyes winning by more than two touchdowns. Our staff here at Eleven Warriors is confident in that outcome, too, as all 14 of our staff members who submit weekly score predictions are picking Ohio State to win by at least 18 points.
Betting on Ohio State to win by three-plus scores against Penn State is a dangerous proposition, as this is a game the Buckeyes should truly be happy to win by even one point (as they did in 2017 and 2018). Despite its recent struggles, Penn State is still the best team Ohio State has played other than Oregon, and the Nittany Lions play the Buckeyes tough far more often than not.
That said, there’s plenty of reason to be confident about this game as an Ohio State fan. As unstoppable as Ohio State’s offense has looked in its past three games, the Buckeyes should be able to put up more points on Penn State’s defense than other teams have this year. And if they do, Penn State’s offense might not be capable of keeping up – especially if Clifford is still ailing.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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42 | 17 |
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