A game like this is worth the wait.
For the first time in more than 100 years – 1917, to be exact – Ohio State and Michigan did not play each other in 2020 after last year’s game was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the Michigan program. As a result, Ohio State had to wait an extra year before getting the opportunity to earn its ninth consecutive win over Michigan, while the Wolverines had to wait another year for a chance to earn their first win over the Buckeyes since 2011.
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| #5 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES |
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10-1 (7-1 B1G) ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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NOON – SATURDAY, NOV. 27 MICHIGAN STADIUM ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN |
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FOX FOX SPORTS GO |
On Saturday, 728 days after the last meeting between the two teams on Nov. 30, 2019, Ohio State and Michigan will meet on the football field for the 117th time. And the stakes for this year’s edition of The Game couldn’t be any higher.
Both teams enter their final game of the regular season in the top five of the College Football Playoff rankings with identical 10-1 records. Whoever wins Saturday’s game in Ann Arbor will move on to play for a Big Ten championship and a CFP berth next week, while whoever loses Saturday’s game will suffer a second loss that knocks it out of both the Big Ten Championship Game and playoff position.
Everything that both teams have worked for all year – the chance to compete for a Big Ten championship, the chance to compete for a national championship and bragging rights in the rivalry – will be on the line when Ohio State and Michigan meet in their traditional noon time slot on the Saturday after Thanksgiving after a one-year hiatus.
“This is our No. 1 goal here at Ohio State is to beat the team up north. Period. And we gotta do it,” Ryan Day said Tuesday. “So I think the guys understand that. They understand what a huge week this is for so many reasons. First off, just the rivalry itself. And secondly, there’s everything on the table here, certainly an opportunity to go to Indianapolis.”
The Headlines
Big Ten East on the line
For the second week in a row, Ohio State is playing another top-10-ranked team who it’s competing with for the Big Ten East title.
This week, it’s truly a winner-take-all affair, as the victor will punch its ticket to next week’s Big Ten Championship Game. Although Ohio State and Michigan would technically tie for the Big Ten East title if Michigan wins, a shared division title would be little consolation for the Buckeyes, who would win the division title outright as the only Big Ten team with an undefeated record in conference play if they can beat the Wolverines.
While it’s often said that records are thrown out the window when Ohio State and Michigan play each other, there’s no need for such clichés this year. Even if Ohio State and Michigan weren’t rivals, this would be one of the biggest games of the year in college football, as it serves as a de facto elimination game in the College Football Playoff race with just two weeks to go before the playoff field is set.
If Ohio State wins on Saturday, it will qualify for its fifth consecutive Big Ten Championship Game and be just one more win away from making its third straight CFP. If Ohio State loses on Saturday, its conference and national championship hopes will both fade away.
There’s a lot of pressure that comes with that, but that’s nothing new for the Buckeyes.
“It’s what you love about Ohio State. It’s why you’re recruited here, it’s why you commit here, is to be in moments like this,” defensive tackle Haskell Garrett said this week. “Around here, we live under pressure and we love chaos. So I’m excited for Saturday.”
Two years of bad blood
Because they didn’t get the chance to play each other last year, and because of some of the back-and-forth that came with everything that happened last year, Ohio State and Michigan might both go into this game feeling like they have even more to prove than usual.
Day and his players have said all the right things publicly this week about respecting their opponent and not needing any extra motivation for this week’s game, but the Buckeyes certainly felt like they had a chance for a big win over the Wolverines stolen away from them when Michigan moved to cancel last year’s game. All of the players on last year’s team missed out on the opportunity to earn another pair of Gold Pants, which surely only increases their desire to beat the team up north this year.
This will also be the first time the two teams meet since Jim Harbaugh allegedly accused Ohio State of breaking rules during voluntary workouts last summer, which reportedly led Day to tell the Buckeyes in a team meeting that they would “hang 100” on Michigan. They never got the chance to do that in 2020, which gives them all the more reason to want to make a statement in 2021.
That said, the Wolverines will also be coming in with a chip on their shoulder after they were accused of ducking Ohio State last year. While there’s still a perception among many Ohio State fans that Michigan took the easy way out to avoid another loss to the Buckeyes last season, Michigan has said that it would have been without more than 40 players due to COVID-19, and its players did not take kindly to the notion that they didn’t want to play.
“It’s B.S., to be honest with you,” Michigan linebacker Josh Ross said this week. “That’s the game we’ve always got circled on our calendar, always want to play and as a Michigan Wolverine, that’s a game you would die for.”
Are these Wolverines good enough to win?
While there’s good reason to think Ohio State would have won big if The Game had been played last year – not just because the Wolverines were dealing with COVID-19 at the time, but because they were 2-4 – Michigan looks like a legitimate threat to challenge the Buckeyes this year.
The Wolverines are ranked in the top 10 nationally in both scoring defense (16.3 points allowed per game) and total defense (306.7 yards allowed per game), while they also rank 15th in scoring offense (36.9 points scored per game) and 24th in total offense (447.9 yards gained per game). Michigan’s only blemish of the season came in a 37-33 loss to Michigan State in which the Wolverines outgained the Spartans by more than 150 yards.
This year’s team has a strong case for being the best team Jim Harbaugh has had in his seven-year tenure at Michigan, and because of that, the Wolverines are expected to be more competitive with Ohio State than they’ve been in the past. As of Thursday night, Ohio State was only an 8.5-point favorite for Saturday’s game even though it’s won five of the last six rivalry games by double digits. So the Buckeyes know they need to be at their best if they’re going to keep their winning streak in the rivalry going.
“When you play against a really good team, you’ve gotta do your homework,” Day said. “You’ve gotta know where their strengths and their weaknesses are, what they do schematically, all of the above.”
Of course, it’s not as if the Michigan teams that were blown out by Ohio State in recent years were expected to be so overmatched. Michigan actually entered The Game as a favorite in 2018 only to lose 62-39, and the Wolverines were only a single-digit underdog when they lost 56-27 in 2019.
So while this year’s Wolverines look like they’re capable of competing with Ohio State, they have to prove they can actually do it on the field – and it’s easy to be skeptical given Jim Harbaugh’s 0-5 record against the Buckeyes and how the last couple of meetings between the scarlet and gray and maize and blue have gone.
Keep An Eye on These Guys
Michigan DEs Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo
Ohio State’s offensive line has excelled in pass protection this season, allowing just 13 sacks in the first 11 games, but it will face its biggest test of the season to date against Hutchinson and Ojabo, who are arguably the best duo of edge rushers in college football this year.
Hutchinson, who is widely projected to be a top-five overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft, is currently graded by Pro Football Focus as the best edge defender in all of college football. Ojabo, who is tied with Hutchinson for the Big Ten lead with 10 sacks apiece, is ranked by PFF as the Big Ten’s fourth-best edge defender. While Hutchinson is more of a force in the run game than Ojabo, both of them have wreaked havoc off the edges as pass-rushers and have shown they can make game-changing plays, recording seven combined forced fumbles (five by Ojabo, two by Hutchinson).
Ohio State left tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere and right tackle Dawand Jones have been rock-solid as pass protectors all year, but they’ll need to be at their best to keep Hutchinson and Ojabo at bay, which could be the key for C.J. Stroud and Ohio State’s passing offense to have another big game.
“They’re talented, they’re fast, they’re athletic, they’re strong, they’re everything that you would imagine a great defensive end would be,” Petit-Frere said this week. “They’re a great challenge for us. It’s a great opportunity.”
Michigan RB Donovan Edwards
The obvious running back to list here would be Hassan Haskins, who the Buckeyes should expect to see a healthy dose of carries on Saturday. Haskins ranks third in the Big Ten this season with 1,063 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on 216 rushing attempts, and he’s a hard-charging runner who Michigan often leans often on heavily.
Blake Corum has also been productive in the Wolverines’ running game, rushing for 778 yards and 10 touchdowns on only 130 carries, but he’s missed Michigan’s last two games with an ankle injury and his status for The Game remains uncertain.
However, the X-factor out of Michigan’s backfield on Saturday could be Edwards, who has just 27 carries for 149 yards and two touchdowns in his freshman year but is coming off of a breakout game against Maryland in which he caught 10 passes for 170 yards, highlighted by a 77-yard touchdown on a wheel route.
@UMichFootball can't stop scoring!
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 20, 2021
Donovan Edwards for 77 yards pic.twitter.com/B1T0ekWekF
Just how much Edwards will feature into Michigan’s game plan against Ohio State is hard to forecast – a wide variety of offensive playmakers have had big games for the Wolverines this season, but they haven’t had any consistent star receivers – but his big game against the Terrapins certainly gave the Buckeyes something else to prepare for on defense this week.
“Good player. We recruited him,” Day said of Edwards, who was the fourth-ranked running back in the recruiting class of 2021. “Donovan’s a good player and a lot of respect for him, and so it looks like he’s really coming into his own right now. So we’ve gotta be aware of where he’s at.”
Michigan DB Daxton Hill
The highest-rated recruit on Michigan’s entire roster, Hill – who was the No. 14 overall prospect in the class of 2019 – is one of the biggest reasons, along with the pass-rushers, why Michigan ranks eighth in the country with only 178.4 passing yards allowed per game this season.
A true junior who’s started 20 career games for the Wolverines, Hill can line up just about anywhere in Michigan’s secondary, primarily lining up in the slot – playing a similar role to the cover safety in Ohio State’s defense – but also at times playing deep as a free safety or in the box as a strong safety. He’s played the most snaps of any Michigan defender this season, per PFF, and has been a difference-maker in both pass coverage and run support, recording 53 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions and eight pass breakups in Michigan’s first 11 games.
Michigan will need Hill to be at his best if it hopes to slow down Ohio State’s explosive passing game, as he’ll often be the Wolverine tasked with covering leading Buckeyes receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the slot.
Game Week Talk
“It’s the biggest rivalry in all of sports, I think. I can’t explain it. You just gotta feel it. It just is.”– Ohio State defensive end Zach Harrison
As a native of Lewis Center, Ohio, who was recruited by both Ohio State and Michigan, Harrison has an ingrained understanding of how big The Game is, as he’s been watching it since he was a kid. He said he doesn’t need any extra motivation to be hyped for this week’s game because “this game is as big as it can get every single year.”
“A lot of teams play them scared, play them fearful … I don’t think you’re going to be seeing a lot of scared or fearful play from us on Saturday.”– Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson
Even though the Wolverines have been embarrassed in each of the first two editions of The Game that he’s been a part of, Hutchinson made it clear he’s not going to back down from the challenge of playing Ohio State this week, saying “I really think we are ready for this.”
“I wouldn’t say I’m very concerned about anything. I’d say we’re looking to take advantage of Ohio State.”– Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara
In a week where everyone’s on high alert for bulletin board material, this quote from McNamara was the one that got the most attention from Ohio State fans this week. In context, McNamara wasn’t necessarily taking a shot at Ohio State’s defense – he was more simply saying that the Wolverines are confident in what they can do rather than worrying about what the Buckeyes can do to them – but you can bet Ohio State’s coaches aren’t spinning it that way.
Get Smart
| Ohio State | Pos | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| C.J. STROUD | QB | CADE MCNAMARA |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | HASSAN HASKINS |
| CHRIS OLAVE | WR | CORNELIUS JOHNSON |
| GARRETT WILSON | WR | ROMAN WILSON |
| JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA | WR/TE | LUKE SCHOONMAKER |
| JEREMY RUCKERT | TE | ERICK ALL |
| NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE | LT | RYAN HAYES |
| THAYER MUNFORD | LG | TREVOR KEEGAN |
| LUKE WYPLER | C | ANDREW VASTARDIS |
| PARIS JOHNSON JR. | RG | ZAK ZINTER |
| DAWAND JONES | RT | ANDREW STUEBER |
| DEFENSE | ||
| ZACH HARRISON | DE | AIDAN HUTCHINSON |
| TYREKE SMITH | DE | DAVID OJABO |
| HASKELL GARRETT | DT | CHRIS HINTON |
| ANTWUAN JACKSON | NT | MAZI SMITH |
| STEELE CHAMBERS | WLB | JUNIOR COLSON |
| TOMMY EICHENBERG | MLB | JOSH ROSS |
| RONNIE HICKMAN | BLT/NB | DAXTON HILL |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | D.J. TURNER |
| CAMERON BROWN | CB | VINCENT GRAY |
| BRYSON SHAW | S | ROD MOORE |
| MARCUS WILLIAMSON | S | BRAD HAWKINS |
- Ohio State is 17-2 against Michigan since Jim Tressel became the Buckeyes’ head coach in 2001. Ohio State’s only losses to Michigan since then are a 35-21 loss to Michigan in 2003 and a 40-34 loss to the Wolverines in 2011, both in Ann Arbor.
- With a win this year, Ohio State would tie the longest winning streak by either school in the history of The Game. The only previous nine-game winning streak on either side came when Michigan won every game from 1901-09.
- This is the second time in the College Football Playoff era that Ohio State and Michigan have both been ranked in the top five of the CFP rankings entering The Game. Ohio State was ranked second and Michigan was ranked third when the Buckeyes defeated the Wolverines in double overtime, 30-27, in 2016.
- Ohio State has won its last 29 games against Big Ten opponents (including Big Ten Championship Games) and its last 13 consecutive true road games, the longest road winning streak in the country.
- Michigan’s roster features seven players from Ohio, including starting tight end Erick All (Fairfield), safety Rod Moore (Clayton) and punter Brad Robbins (Westerville). Ohio State’s roster features four players from Michigan: safety Cameron Martinez, long snapper Bradley Robinson, running back Cayden Saunders and offensive tackle Grant Toutant.
- Three members of Ohio State’s defensive coaching staff have ties to the Wolverines. Linebackers coach Al Washington was Michigan’s linebackers coach in 2018, secondary coach Matt Barnes was a defensive analyst at Michigan in 2015 and quality control coach Joe Bolden was a linebacker for the Wolverines from 2012-15.
- ESPN’s College GameDay will be at Ohio State’s game for the second week in a row – marking the 52nd time GameDay has been at the site of an Ohio State game – while Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff will also be on site in Ann Arbor.
- Ohio State is expected to release its status report of unavailable players for The Game at 10:30 a.m. Saturday.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -8.5, O/U 64.5
Although most people are expecting Ohio State to win Saturday’s game – according to ESPN’s David Purdum, there were six times as many bets placed on Ohio State winning as there were on Michigan in the first four hours after the Buckeyes opened as a 7-point favorite – oddsmakers and some members of Eleven Warriors’ staff are expecting this to be a tight game.
While everyone on our staff predicted Ohio State would earn its ninth straight win over Michigan, multiple members of our staff only predicted a one-score win for the Buckeyes. Many other members of our staff are expecting a more lopsided game in Ohio State’s favor, however, with eight of our 14 staff members who submit weekly picks taking the Buckeyes to win by 21 points or more.
All of that is to say that there’s no consensus on how this year’s edition of The Game will play out. Ryan Day’s offenses have picked apart Michigan defenses before and this year’s offense might be Ohio State’s best ever, but the Wolverines and new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald could present a stiffer defensive challenge this year. Ohio State’s defense is built to stop run-heavy offenses like Michigan’s, but the Wolverines are good enough through the air to exploit holes in Ohio State’s pass defense.
If Ohio State’s offense can keep clicking the way it has for most of the season, though, the Wolverines will likely struggle to keep pace. And considering how dominant the Buckeyes have been in the past eight editions of The Game, there’s no reason to expect anything but Ohio State’s best on Saturday, even on the road against an improved Michigan squad.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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45 | 24 |
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