The Unsure Thing

By Ramzy Nasrallah on December 20, 2022 at 7:20 pm
this play with stetson bennett and jaylin tuimoloau does not exist yet
© John David Mercer, Tommy Gilligan, Brett Davis USAT Sports Network
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Take off the scarlet-tinted glasses for a moment.

Ohio State has faced SEC programs in the postseason 13 times, winning twice - that's an extremely uncool 15.39% winning percentage. The Buckeyes will get a 14th shot next weekend. Okay, put the glasses back on.

In New Year's Six/BCS/CFP-tier desirable bowl games, they're 2-4, which eliminates a sizable chunk of the consolation prize baggage weighing down their SEC resumé. One of those four losses was 45 years ago. Different sport.

More recently, Ohio State lost to the strongest Bama team of the Saban era with half of its defensive line along with guys like Dawand Jones and Cam Brown unavailable. Miyan Williams was quarantined too, which wouldn't have mattered so much if Trey Sermon had survived just one drive. That one was all but unwinnable.

Glasses still on? Good. Ohio State can definitely beat Georgia in Atlanta next weekend.

Okay, take them off again. This is the first Ohio State team ever to check all five bad boxes:

OHIO STATE VS. THE SEC IN THE POSTSEASON
SEASON OPPONENT RANK OSU RANK BOWL GAME RESULT NEGATIVE ELEMENTS WEIGHING ON OHIO STATE
UNDERDOG SAD OFF-SCHEDULE ROADIE DEPTH ISSUES
1977
bama
No.3 No.9 Sugar Bowl L 6-35 X X X X  
1989
auburn
No.9 No.21 Hall of Fame L 14-31 X X X    
1992
uga
No.8 No.15 Citrus L 14-21 X X X    
1994
bama
No.6 No.13 Citrus L 17-24 X   X    
1995
ut
No.5 No.4 Citrus L 14-20   X X    
2000
cocks
No.14 No.22 Outback L 7-24   X X   X
2001
cocks
No.14 No.22 Outback L 28-31     X    
2006
urban
No.2 No.1 BCS Title L 14-41     X   X
2007
lesmiles
No.2 No.1 BCS Title L 38-24 X X   X  
2010
hogs
No.8 No.6 Sugar W 31-26     X    
2011
noturban
UR UR Taxslayer L 17-24 X X X X  
2014
bama
No.1 No.4 Sugar CFP W 42-35 X     X X
2020
bama
No.1 No.3 CFP Title L 52-24 X       X
2022
uga
No.1 No.4 CFP Peach TBD X X X X X
  • Underdog: Opponent favored (9 out of 14) The last time the Buckeyes were favored to beat an SEC opponent was the Arkansas Sugar Bowl (-2.5). Then the whole tattoo thing broke in late December - whatever happened with that anyway? - and Vegas promptly shut down the betting. That turned out to be a bad idea, because Ohio State won and overconfident Hog money could have been a boon for sports books.
  • Sadness: Failed to beat Michigan (8 out of 14). Awkwardly phrased to be inclusive of the 1992 tie - the Buckeyes are 0-6 in bowl games against SEC opponents after not beating the Wolverines, and 2-4 after earning Gold Pants. There's no way to accommodate for Michigan faking a COVID outbreak to get out of playing Ohio State as a 30-point underdog in 2020, but that doesn't matter, it's sadness all the way down whenever the Wolverines win.
  • Off-Schedule: Postseason plans diverted (11* out of 14). The 2022 team is included with all of those Cooper teams which had Pasadena dreams on account of ceding another Indianapolis trip to Michigan. Yes, this battered team benefited from not playing an extra game. That's a glasses-on thing. Bank that thought for a moment.
  • Roadie: Home game for opponent (5 out of 14). You can drive from Athens to Atlanta, Tuscaloosa or Baton Rouge to New Orleans and Gainesville to Jacksonville without stopping to pee. Columbus is quite a bit farther away. There's nothing neutral site about this Peach Bowl.
  • Depth Issues: Missing difference-makers (5 out of 14). Ohio State began the season with three players in the top seven among Heisman favorites. Only C.J. Stroud is available for the postseason. COVID put the Buckeyes' chances against Alabama on life support and losing Sermon and Wyatt Davis before halftime pulled the plug. Losing Ted Ginn before a single snap in Glendale, Reggie Germany flunking out of eligibility with Derek Combs benched for disciplinary reasons - it's hard to beat any bowl team when your top offensive players can't play.

Beating Alabama with a third-string QB is the exception, not the rule to playing short-handed. But it happened, as did beating the Pac-12 champs on New Year's Day down two of the NFL's current best WRs, because Ohio State carries no backups on its roster. Figuratively.

So not only is Ohio State playing in its first Peach Bowl ever, it's facing the SEC champions in their backyard coming off a debilitating loss to Michigan - and in a condition pretty far-removed from full-strength. That said, they limped into their final regular season game and now will have enjoyed (not the right word) a full month to get healthy.

And the healthy version of this team looked like a world beater. Even without its best player.

Looking at the history between this program and that conference suggests 2022 Peach may be the steepest bowl challenge yet. If you discard history and focus on the two current teams, it isn't crazy at all to suggest Ohio State can win by simply rising up to the level of the occasion while showcasing its potential and playing unafraid football.

Glasses off - that won't happen. The Buckeyes just had that opportunity and absolutely wilted in their home stadium from the coaching on down. Glasses on - Georgia will have its hands full against a team intimately familiar with how rock bottom tastes. That's a dangerous opponent for a team that's forgotten what losing feels like.

We'll just have to wait and see which team shows up in Atlanta. If it's wearing glasses, look out.

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