A decided underdog playing in No. 1 seed Georgia's backyard, Ryan Day's No. 4 seed Ohio State Buckeyes have a chance to pull off an upset tomorrow night in Atlanta.
Of course, failing to upend the Bulldogs would cap a disappointing season following a 45-23 loss to Michigan a little over a month ago. It would also put the legacy of C.J. Stroud in clear focus and fuel the building angst among a large sector of Buckeye fans either already sure or definitely worried that Day isn't the guy to lead the program.
Basically, the stakes are off the charts.
Will Ohio State finally put together a clean performance when it counts? Can the passing game carry the Buckeyes to the winner's circle?
For answers to those questions and more, we welcome our own Dan Hope, Ramzy Nasrallah and Matt Gutridge to a CFP edition of the 11W Roundtable.
Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter looks to be the most NFL-ready player on either roster and the Bulldogs lead the nation in rush defense allowing 76.9 yards per game on a nation's third-best 2.93 yards per attempt allowed. What would you consider a successful night for Ohio State's ground game?
Dan: Nobody has rushed for more than 140 yards in a game or hit five yards per attempt against Georgia this year, but I’ll still say those should be goals for the Buckeyes on Saturday night. Ohio State has the talent on offense to do things no other Georgia opponent has done, and that’s what it’s going to need to do if it’s going to become the first team to beat Georgia all year. Considering Ohio State has rushed for more than 250 yards in all three of its previous CFP wins, the Buckeyes are going to need to have at least some success on the ground to win.
Ramzy: The well-established Battle for the Most Rushing Yards is overblown and stupid. I’m tired of hearing about it. This offense and this quarterback are designed to rack up over 100 passing yards per quarter. The offensive line is significantly better at pass-blocking than run-blocking, at least since the bye week.
Do you remember how many rushing yards the Buckeyes had in the Rose Bowl? As a team, 20 carries for 110 yards and no touchdowns. Decent stat line. Had they wasted one or two more plays on increasing rushing yards, they might have lost the game. A successful night for Ohio State’s ground game is not stealing production from the passing game.
Matt: Carter is a stud, but so is the entire front seven of Georgia’s defense. When opposing teams are in obvious run situations the Bulldogs attack the line with unabashed relentlessness.
With such a formidable front, I’d be happy if Ohio State’s offensive line is able to produce holes for the running back to run through. Those holes might be easier to find if the passing game is clicking and the Buckeyes’ coaching staff leans on Miyan Williams and Dallan Hayden to run through those open lanes.
If the running backs are able to get three carries of 10+ yards, if C.J. Stroud tucks and runs when needed, if the team breaks the century mark on the ground and if the passing game stays aggressive, the night could end with Ryan Day’s team preparing for the CFP Championship. That’s a lot of ifs.
Ohio State's best chance to move the football with success will likely be by putting the game almost solely in C.J. Stroud's hands. I won't be surprised if he throws it 50+ times on Saturday night. I also hope he tucks and runs on pass plays where yardage can be had at least five or six times. Am I living in a dream world? What kind of night do you expect from Stroud both through the air and on the ground?
Matt: If Stroud has 50+ passing attempts, that might translate to the Buckeyes’ ground game being a non-factor. I’m hoping for a two-to-one ratio between passing and running. Something like 40ish passes and 20ish rushes.
It could be a game-changer if Stroud puts on his big boy running pants Saturday night. Like you, I’m hoping he surprises everybody with his arm and his legs. Then again, I thought he was going to do that during the game on the last Saturday of November. So, expecting him to break his mold against Georgia might be putting both of us in dreamland.
Dan: Stroud hasn’t thrown 50+ passes in a game all year, but that doesn't mean you're living in a dream world. The Buckeyes should commit to doing what they do best, and that's Stroud throwing the ball (particularly to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka). I was surprised by Stroud's lack of running against Michigan after he showed he could be a threat with his legs against Northwestern, but he did seem to be nursing a lower-body injury in that game as he was riding a stationary bike on the sideline in between possessions. Assuming he's healthier with five weeks of rest, the reins could be taken off, and Stroud and the rest of the Buckeyes have said they're not going to hold anything back in their quest to win this game. If that's truly the case, Stroud has to be willing to run to give Georgia's elite run defense another threat to account for.
Ramzy: Stroud went 37 for 46 against Utah for 573 yards and six touchdowns. If Georgia’s back seven isn’t panting in the 4th quarter the Buckeyes will be well on their way to losing. Ohio State needs to bring an inexhaustible appetite for throwing the ball, and Stroud needs to accept the easy/checkdown outlet on occasion instead of stubbornly trying to thread a needle every single time. That’s fine against Toledo. This isn’t Toledo.
Georgia's offense slots No. 8 in total offense and No. 11 in scoring offense yet I don't see a bunch of skill players that I project to own their matchups against Ohio State with the exception of the Bulldog tight ends. Of course, there's still the OSU secondary to worry about particularly if Jim Knowles unnecessarily puts them in a bunch of situations with zero help. Any chance the Buckeye defense can bounce back from the Michigan game performance and keep the Bulldogs from scoring a ton of points? Which non-tight end Georgia offensive player should OSU fans be most worried about?
Ramzy: Frustrate the quarterback and goad him into playing hero ball. He’s 25 years old and an established winner, so this is a tall order. Just expect Georgia to score at least 40 points. Embrace it. Accept it. The Ohio State defense is not going to win this game, its role is to make it annoying so that when the 4th quarter comes around the Bulldogs aren’t having fun or cruising. Make Georgia break character and expect Ohio State’s offense to hold up its end.
Matt: At this point, I’m treating the defense like a Missourian. They need to show me they can stop a team with a pulse, especially the secondary. I’m worried about the Bulldogs’ offensive line and any player they have carrying the ball behind the running lanes their big men can produce.
Dan: I think Ohio State's defense will play better in the sense that it won't allow Georgia to score five touchdowns on explosive plays, but I still expect the Bulldogs to score 30-plus points. Georgia's offense is easily better than any of the opponents other than Michigan, Maryland and Penn State that Ohio State played during the regular season, and all of those teams scored at least 30 against OSU. A Georgia player I believe could give the Buckeye defense trouble is running back Kenny McIntosh, who has caught 37 passes for 449 yards this season – the second-most receiving yards of any FBS running back – and will present the biggest receiving threat out of the backfield Ohio State has faced all year, especially when coupled with the threat of the tight ends.
The temperature of Buckeye nation seems to be that Ohio State doesn't have much of a chance in this one. The game is in Georgia's backyard, the Bulldogs look really, really good, the Buckeyes laid an egg in the second half against Michigan with the head coach, defensive coordinator, defensive backs and quarterback catching a shit ton of heat afterward. Ryan Day's talked about playing more aggressive and about the team having new life after sneaking into the CFP field. Do you buy it? Will Ohio State come out with fire and play smart? If it gets behind, might Ohio State roll over? Not looking for the score here, just what you think about the team's mindset given the last 30+ days.
Dan: I buy that Ohio State will play with a different level of aggression in this game because I think the Buckeyes are entering this game with more of a nothing-to-lose mindset rather than the everything-to-lose mindset they had entering the Michigan game. Given the way the Michigan game snowballed away from Ohio State once the Wolverines started to take control of the game, I do question how the Buckeyes will respond if they get punched in the mouth early. I don't expect this game to be a repeat of the 2016 CFP semifinal loss to Clemson or the 2020 national championship game loss to Alabama – I'm expecting a far more competitive game than that – but I don't rule out the possibility of this game getting away from Ohio State in a bad way if the Buckeyes start slow.
Ramzy: I have no choice but to buy it. The Buckeyes, however overdue this might be, will come out against a legitimate opponent hell-bent on showcasing the best version themselves, which is the one that doesn’t serve up 50/50 balls to a tight end who doesn’t catch 50/50 balls or leave itself susceptible to 85-yard touchdowns. We saw it on New Year’s Day, beginning with the third drive of the game.
The Buckeyes cannot wait until the third drive of the game this time. If Georgia establishes the tone early leaving Ohio State flailing its arms while a giant bully condescendingly sits on its chest and drools on its face, the state of Ohio will run out of booze before midnight.
Matt: I wish I could buy what the team is trying to sell, but now being Missouri Matt, this team is going to have to show it to me on the field. What I want to see is toughness. Not physical toughness, but the mental fortitude and burning desire of the players and coaches to win a game at all costs.
My fear is if things go south, we can see a repeat of the fourth quarter of the regular season finale. Even worse, it could turn into a replay of the 2016 Fiesta Bowl against Clemson. As we all remember, that was the last time an Ohio State team played in the CFP without winning the Big Ten title and Dabo Sweeney’s team shut them out.
With that, I’m really hoping this Ohio State squad has flipped the switch like the 2014 team did after the Virginia Tech loss. Due to injuries, the ’14 coaching staff had to turn to a third-string quarterback, maybe it’s time for the ’22 staff to lean on its third-string running back…Dallan Hayden. Especially if Williams isn’t 100 percent healthy.
Okay, now we're to the most important question. Ohio State enters the game as a 6.5-point underdog with Vegas Insider showing 82% of the money coming in on Georgia. Do the Buckeyes cover? Do they pull the upset? Give us your final score.
Matt: Before diving into the dark science of seeing the future, I’d like to wish Chris, Dan, Ramzy and the readers a Happy New Year. It’s been fun and an honor to sit at the table with you guys in 2022.
This is the 12th Roundtable I’ve been a part of in which the Buckeyes played a game. In the previous 11, I’ve picked Ohio State to win every time – even the 2021 Sugar Bowl over Clemson – and the Buckeyes have always come out of the game victorious.
With that background, I’m hoping the Buckeyes remain undefeated when I participate in a Roundtable and my record drops to 11–1. Georgia 31, Ohio State 28 is my prediction.
Dan: I've got the Buckeyes covering, but I've got the Bulldogs winning. I think this game stays competitive for four quarters, but Georgia has been the better team this year and has a track record of rising to the occasion and playing its best football in big games. I'm going with a final score of 35-31 in Georgia's favor.
Ramzy: Ohio State 48, Georgia 45. Same score as the Rose Bowl. I am choosing to believe the Ohio State offense is all out of clunkers and will do exactly enough to advance to the title game.
