Preview: Ohio State Looks to Finish Non-Conference Play Strong Against Toledo

Ohio State will play its third and final non-conference game of the regular season on Saturday night at Ohio Stadium, where the Buckeyes will host Toledo for a rare primetime game (7 p.m.) against a MAC opponent on a national broadcast network (FOX).

TOLEDO ROCKETS

2-0 ROSTER / SCHEDULE

7 P.M. – SATURDAY, SEPT. 18 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO

FOX FOX SPORTS

Like last week’s game against Arkansas State, the Buckeyes are favored to win by a substantial margin. They’ve gone 49-0-1 against in-state opponents over the past 100 years. But the Rockets look capable of giving Ohio State at least a somewhat tougher test than the Red Wolves could. And with just one more game to go until conference play begins, Ryan Day doesn’t want his team taking any opponent for granted.

“When you look across college football this past weekend, you can see that you gotta bring it every week,” Day said. “We talk all the time that regardless of who we're playing, it's about us, it's about the way that we show up every day and try to compare it to the best people in the world at what they do. If you're considered the best in the country, it's not because you can do it once, that just means you have potential. You have to do it every single week. And so we've been trying to do that.”

The Headlines

Buckeyes looking to play cleaner

Although Ohio State was never in jeopardy of losing to Arkansas State, ultimately winning the game by 33 points, the Buckeyes weren’t entirely satisfied with their performance. While Day said after last week’s game that he doesn’t want his team to ever take winning for granted, he also felt there were many things Ohio State could have done better in that game, which the Buckeyes were favored to win by 44 points.

In particular, Day was displeased that Ohio State had committed nine penalties, more than half of which were either pre-snap infractions or unsportsmanlike conduct flags. Day was also displeased that the Buckeyes gave away two possessions on special teams – one when Teradja Mitchell was penalized for leaping over the punt shield, and another when JK Johnson ran into the ball as a punt jammer, giving the ball back to Arkansas State on a fumble recovery.

Cutting down on avoidable mistakes like those and playing cleaner football has been a big point of emphasis for the Buckeyes going into their non-conference finale.

“We have to be more disciplined. Disciplined teams go far,” Ohio State left guard Donovan Jackson said this week. “We have to become more refined, more disciplined. Even in practice, being held more accountable to what we do. That goes across the board for every position. We have to like tighten up the small things, because the small things hurt in the long run.”

Toledo off to strong start

Ohio State’s defense has allowed just one touchdown this season, yet the Buckeyes have given up more than twice as many points as the Rockets in their first two games.

Toledo’s defense has been dominant in its first two games, ranking second nationally in passing defense and scoring defense and fourth in total defense with just 10 total points allowed. With 92 points scored in their first two games, the Rockets are also tied for 16th nationally in scoring offense.

Granted, that success has come against weak competition, as Toledo opened its season against an FCS opponent (LIU) and followed that up with a game against a team that’s arguably the worst in the FBS (UMass). The Rockets are unlikely to be anywhere near as dominant on defense or prolific on offense against a far more talented opponent in Ohio State.

Still, the Rockets’ early success gives the Buckeyes reason to take them seriously as a team that could give them a scare if they don’t play well. So too does their recent history of playing competitively against Power 5 opponents, including a game last year in which they led Notre Dame with under two minutes left to play before losing 32-29.

“This is a very good team,” Day said. “They certainly gave Notre Dame all they could handle last year. And so we got to do a great job making sure that we're preparing just like any other week, and it's the same message. The message is that it's about us, and we have to make sure that we're building every week and getting stronger every week. But this is a good team in Toledo.”

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Offense could return to full strength

We haven’t yet seen the fully loaded version of Ohio State’s 2022 offense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was healthy for less than a full quarter before suffering a hamstring injury against Notre Dame and missing the Arkansas State game, while Julian Fleming has missed both of the first two games. But Day expressed optimism this week that both Smith-Njigba and Fleming – and possibly fellow wide receiver Kamryn Babb, who’s also missed the first two games with a knee injury – could be back on the field Saturday.

“We're hoping all those guys are going to be on the field in pregame warmups and they'll be available for the weekend,” Day said.

Given Fleming and Babb’s injury histories and Smith-Njigba’s value to the team, Ohio State will certainly want to ensure all of them are fully healthy before returning to the field, giving the Buckeyes reason to be cautious in another game they really shouldn’t need those wide receivers to win. At the same time, they’d love to get those receivers back in the rhythm of the offense before conference play begins.

“Not having Julian and Jaxon in there, we certainly miss those guys. We're not the same offense without them,” Day said.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio State is hoping for the return of cornerback Jordan Hancock, who has missed the first two games of the season with what Day described this week as a “significant injury” suffered in preseason camp. If he is healthy enough to play, Hancock could potentially be the No. 3 cornerback in the rotation behind starters Cameron Brown and Denzel Burke, though the Buckeyes will exercise caution not to bring him back too quickly just as they will with the wideouts who have been sidelined.

Keep An Eye on These Guys

QB Dequan Finn

Toledo’s leading passer (388 yards, three touchdowns) and rusher (138 yards, three touchdowns) this season, Finn is the engine that makes the Rockets’ offense go. Finn, who earned MAC West Offensive Player of the Week honors last week, will force Ohio State’s defense to account for his ability to both run and pass the ball.

Fortunately for the Buckeyes, that’s nothing new this season, as Notre Dame quarterback Tyler Buchner was also a running threat and Ohio State accounted for Arkansas State quarterback James Blackman’s ability to make plays with his legs, too. Considering the Buckeyes have allowed only 64.5 rushing yards per game so far this season, Jim Knowles’ unit has had little trouble dealing with the quarterback running game.

Nevertheless, the Buckeyes know they must be prepared for Finn’s potential to both take off as a runner and extend plays outside the pocket as a scrambler.

“He can run it any time he wants to,” Knowles said. “I think we have to be ready for that. He makes a lot of plays with his feet in scrambling situations. That's where we really need to be aware of what he can do. But he has all the tools, makes all the throws. Very, very capable.”

RELATED Film Study: Jim Knowles’ Aggressive Approach Has Paid Off Thus Far for the Ohio State Defense

DT Desjuan Johnson and OLB Jamal Hines

Toledo’s strongest unit is its defensive front, led by a pair of seniors who could be playing in the NFL next year.

Hines, the Rockets’ top edge rusher, earned first-team All-MAC honors in 2021 after finishing second in the conference with 10 sacks. Johnson, who earned second-team All-MAC honors last season, currently ranks in the top 10 nationally with 4.5 tackles for loss. Both of them have racked up 13 tackles for loss this year.

While the trenches are often where Power 5 teams have the biggest advantage in games against Group of 5 teams, Ohio State’s offensive line will be in for a real test with Johnson, Hines and Penn State defensive tackle transfer Judge Culpepper leading the Rockets’ defensive front.

“Their front's very good,” Day said. “They've been very productive the last couple of years, these are guys who have played a lot. A couple of them we recruited. And so overall, I think they have a good defense.”

LB Dallas Gant

A former Ohio State linebacker who spent nearly four years with the Buckeyes before entering the transfer portal last September, Gant will return to Ohio Stadium this weekend as Toledo’s leading tackler, having recorded 20 tackles in the Rockets’ first two games.

While Gant never started a game for the Buckeyes, the Toledo native has shown in his first two games as a Rocket why he was once a top-200 overall recruit in his class. The 6-foot-3, 235-pound middle linebacker has quickly become a crucial cog in the Rockets’ defense and should play a major role against his former team on Saturday.

“It's great to see him playing. I certainly wish he was playing for us,” Day said this week. “It's not great when you have to go play somebody that was in your program already.”

Given that Gant has already played with and practiced against the vast majority of Ohio State’s players, his Toledo teammates will surely be leaning on him for any tips he can provide about how to slow the Buckeyes down, and he hopes that will give him an advantage on Saturday.

“I've got endless reps against a lot of the players there, most of the players there and I think it's going to translate to the game on Saturday with me being comfortable and seeing a lot of familiar looks and stuff like that,” Gant told Eleven Warriors this week.

RELATED Dallas Gant Says Leaving Ohio State Was “Hardest Decision I've Ever Made,” But Thinks He’s “Exactly Where I Need to Be” at Toledo

Game Week Talk

“I think our guys can come up here and sit here and talk about Long Island and talk about UMass and they're gonna say all the right stuff, but I think in their mind, I’m pretty sure they know the difference between Ohio State and Long Island.”– Toledo coach Jason Candle

Toledo’s head coach didn’t shy away from the obvious reality that Ohio State will provide a huge step up in competition for his team, describing the Buckeyes as a “monster” opponent who will present a “tremendous challenge.”

“I grew up in a household of Buckeye fans, I understand that. But you live in the city of Toledo, you go to work here every day, pay taxes here; root for the home team. That would be my message. I’m not deviating from that. I don’t care who we play this weekend.”– Jason Candle’s message to Toledo residents

While most football fans throughout the state of Ohio are Ohio State fans, Candle hopes the Rockets will have the support of their hometown behind them even when they’re playing the Buckeyes on Saturday night.

“When you play somebody from your own state, it's a strange feeling.”– Ryan Day

Day said he thinks all of the college football programs in the state are proud to be from Ohio and want to represent the state well. A strange feeling hasn’t stopped the Buckeyes from reigning supreme in in-state matchups, though, as they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 32 points per game in their last 50 games against other Ohio universities.

Get Smart

• Ohio State is 3-0 all-time against Toledo, winning its three previous matchups against the Rockets in 1998 (49-0), 2009 (38-0) and 2011 (27-22).
• Ohio State is 28-0 all-time in games against the MAC.
• Toledo is 6-14 all-time in games against the Big Ten.
• Ohio State has won its last 65 consecutive games against non-Power 5 teams, dating back to a Liberty Bowl loss to Air Force at the end of the 1990 season.
• Toledo has lost its last four games against Power 5 opponents. Its most recent wins against Power 5 teams came in 2015, when the Rockets opened their season with back-to-back wins over Arkansas and Iowa State.
• Toledo’s roster features 16 transfers from other colleges, including five from Big Ten schools.
• Ohio State’s current roster does not include any players from the city of Toledo.
• Former Ohio State offensive tackle Max Wray, a recruiting classmate of Gant, is now an offensive line graduate assistant for the Rockets.
• Saturday’s game will be the first time Toledo has ever played on a national broadcast network. It will also be Ohio State’s first-ever regular-season night game on FOX.
• Ohio State will release its status report of unavailable players and game-time decisions at 5 p.m. Saturday.

How It Plays Out

Line: Ohio State -32, O/U 62

Oddsmakers expect Ohio State to defeat Toledo by a very similar score that it beat Arkansas State a week ago, and the Eleven Warriors staff agrees.

Under the assumption that Toledo is a better team than Arkansas State, there’s reason to expect this week’s game to be at least a bit more competitive than last week’s game. If the Buckeyes repeat some of the unforced errors they made against the Red Wolves, Toledo just might be capable of giving Ohio State a real scare, at least for a portion of the game.

But Ohio State should be capable of beating Toledo by as many or even more points than its margin of victory against Arkansas State if it can play cleaner football. The Buckeyes are far more talented than their in-state counterparts, making it unlikely the Rockets will be able to consistently stop Ohio State’s offense or score on Ohio State’s defense.

Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction
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