After Michigan and maybe Notre Dame, this is one of those few games you circled on Ohio State's 2022 regular season schedule.
When you circled it, you figured it could be a night game but the Buckeyes did dodge that fate thanks the glory that is Fox's Big Noon Saturday.
Sitting at No. 13 in the country, James Franklin's squad bounced back nicely against Minnesota at home last weekend after Michigan ran roughshod over the Nittany Lions the preceding Saturday.
So now the Buckeyes hit the road for what will likely be their first real road test after the trip to East Lansing turned into a laugher with the quickness.
To get your mind right for tomorrow's showdown in Beaver Stadium, let's welcome 11W's own Griffin Strom, Kyle Jones and Johnny Ginter to this week's roundtable.
Sean Clifford won’t be an All-American anytime soon but he played his best game all season last weekend against Minnesota and he’s fared pretty well against Ohio State historically. How effective will Ohio State’s defense be in holding the Nittany Lions’ passing game in check? Any particular matchup or PSU personnel Ohio State fans should be on the lookout for?
Griffin: Coming off a poor performance and injury against Michigan in Penn State’s only loss of the season, Clifford’s bounceback effort against Minnesota had to imbue the Nittany Lion pass attack with confidence as it enters Saturday’s matchup with the Buckeyes. Clifford’s come up empty-handed in three previous starts against Ohio State, but in the last two he’s put up a combined 642 yards and four touchdowns. Of course, neither of those games came against Jim Knowles, whose Buckeyes rank third in the country against the pass this season. Still, cornerback play remains a question for Ohio State, which was hardly tested downfield with any regularity against Iowa, and I expect the Nittany Lions to find success – and perhaps a couple scores – in the passing game.
Look for leading Penn State receiver Parker Washington, who put up big numbers in both of his past two matchups with Ohio State, to make some plays on Saturday.
Kyle: Throughout Clifford’s time in Happy Valley, PSU has lacked a real schematic identity. While Mike Yurcich has helped that offense improve its execution and avoid shooting itself in the foot (see: 2020 Penn State), this offense doesn’t have a lot it can lean on. Michigan showed that the O-line is still inconsistent, so I expect OSU to win the battle in the trenches, and forcing Clifford into many of the 3rd & long situations where he has historically struggled.
Johnny: I enjoy your use of the word "historically" because Sean Clifford has emerged from his sarcophagus in Giza to inconsistently throw footballs at receiver's feet. I could make a bunch of other jokes about how inconsistent the guy is, but he's always been consistently inconsistent. I don't know if Good Sean or Bad Sean shows up on Saturday, but the former isn't all that scary to begin with. My guess is that James Franklin will attempt to catch the Buckeyes off guard by having Clifford heave lobs to tight end Theo Johnson and hope that it works out as well as it did against Minnesota. My ancillary guess is that it will not.
Ohio State struggled to run the ball versus Iowa, although they looked outnumbered in the box on more than a few occasions and Day discussed how the Hawkeyes came with looks OSU wasn’t expecting based on film study. We also know Penn State had a stout run defense on paper until Michigan shredded it for 418 yards. Last weekend, The Nittany Lions held Mohamed Ibrahim to 3.4 yards per carry (30 for 102) and the Gophers overall to 3.6 per try. What kind of success will Ohio State have on the ground versus James Franklin’s group?
Johnny: I wouldn't be surprised if you saw Penn State take a similar approach that Iowa did; the Nittany Lions have a very capable secondary, and know that ceding the short game to Ohio State is basically just death by a thousand cuts. They're going to try and force C.J. Stroud into uncomfortable throws while trying to take away the running game. If this fails, and OSU has early success on the ground, this could be blowout city.
Griffin: While I doubt Ohio State will replicate Michigan’s monster performance on the ground against Penn State, I certainly expect the Buckeye run game to make a better account of itself this weekend than it did against Iowa. Ohio State’s 66 rushing yards this past weekend were its second-fewest in a game since 2011, and the Buckeyes have been far too dominant on the ground this season for that type of showing to become a common occurrence. I’d bank on the Buckeyes approaching 200 yards on the ground in this one to get back on track, even if they don’t explode for the 400+ we saw from the Wolverines.
Kyle: Can my answer be: it doesn’t matter? Because if Manny Diaz sells out to stop the run by putting his DBs in one-on-one situations all day against the best wide receiver room in the country, then C.J. Stroud and co. will have a field day in Beaver Stadium. Joey Porter Jr. is a great player, but OSU has four wideouts who have proven capable of winning such battles. I understand fans (and coaches) want to prove they are capable of doing everything well, but the goal is scoring points, and no defense has figured out a way of stopping both aspects of the Buckeyes offense in the same game. I don’t expect that to change this weekend.
I’m curious to your thoughts on C.J. Stroud’s performances over the last four games. No doubt it can be nitpicking but with Ohio State’s offense and the standard recently at quarterback, I do think it’s interesting he’s tossed interceptions in each of the last four games and also failed to secure the ball leading to an Iowa touchdown last weekend. That said, he’s thrown 17 touchdowns over that four game span while completing 68% of this throws. Is he playing at his highest level? Does Ohio State need him to be even better when the competition steps up? Has JSN’s unavailability been a factor for him at all?
Kyle: Stroud is in the middle of the greatest statistical season any Ohio State QB has ever had. He had a few throws against Iowa that were off-target, but made at least 10 others that I don’t think any other QB in the conference could complete consistently. If the Buckeyes don’t reach their ultimate goals, I have a hard time believing it will be due to the play of the QB, much as was the case one year ago.
Johnny: I don't think he's at his highest level, in particular because he's taking chances and rushing in a way that seems more impatient than anything. I think part of that is a result of the running game slowing down and Stroud trying to make every drive end in a touchdown no matter what, which is understandable, but in a closer game against a better opponent I think he'll be a little more reserved and willing to check down. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's absence certainly doesn't help, but by this point it feels like Stroud has a pretty good rapport with his wideouts. He just needs to stop trying to make too much happen all at once.
Griffin: Stroud hasn’t been at his absolute best during the stretch you mention, but that’s what’s scary for opposing defenses. Even with the interceptions, Stroud’s statlines in three of those four contests have been Heisman-like, with upwards of 280 yards and four scores in all but the Rutgers game. If anything, I think it’s a good sign that Stroud and company adjusted to find their stride in the second half against Iowa – the best pass defense they’ve seen thus far – to toss four touchdowns on four straight drives in the third and fourth quarter.
You’d like to see Stroud limit turnovers against a higher-caliber opponent like Penn State, but it would be hard to imagine the Buckeyes taking an L if he finishes with another four-score game given the success Ohio State’s had on defense this season. I’m not reading too much into the impact of Smith-Njigba’s absence on Stroud’s play, save perhaps the season opener, because of just how good Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming have been at wideout.
I asked this as part of our Monday morning This Week’s Question in the forum and I’m curious about your thoughts.. Which player has turned in the most surprising performance, good or bad, through the first seven games?
Griffin: A couple weeks ago I wrote about my 10 biggest surprises from the first half of the regular season, but I’ll give an abridged version here. Cade Stover’s pass-catching ability, Mike Hall’s emergence as a stud on the inside, Tommy Eichenberg’s consistent excellence and Denzel Burke’s step back (despite some solid performances in the last two games) are all near the top of my list. But one thing I didn’t include in the aforementioned article was Lathan Ransom’s rapid rise from somewhat of an afterthought in the spring to a Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist seven games into the season. Ransom’s role seemed questionable after suffering a leg fracture in January’s Rose Bowl, but he’s looked like the best defensive back on the Buckeye roster for much of the 2022 season. Following an up-and-down 2021 campaign even before his injury, Ransom’s year may be the biggest surprise of all.
Kyle: Latham Ransom has been a very pleasant surprise to me. The young man has essentially had to learn a new position every year he has been on campus, but has been excellent since assuming the starting Bandit position. I Stan for all of OSU’s safeties, but Ransom has shown a level of physicality I didn’t expect, fitting run gaps and making more plays at the line of scrimmage than I ever anticipated while still being just as effective downfield in pass coverage.
Johnny: It's still hilarious to me that Tommy Eichenberg is continuing to play at this high of a level right now. Steele Chambers being a really good linebacker is somehow less surprising than Eichenberg lighting up opponents every single week, but, well... that's why Jim Knowles gets paid as much money as he does.
The Buckeyes are a 15-point favorite on the road though they do avoid White Out conditions. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your game MVP and Ohio State’s total rushing yards.
Johnny: Having this game at noon is going to suck a lot of the energy out of the stadium and I think that Day and the offense is still pretty pissed about their first-half performance against Iowa. I think they come out guns blazing and put this thing away in the 3rd quarter. 45-17 good guys, Stroud with the MVP and let's call it 135 rushing yards.
Griffin: I’ve bet against the Buckeyes to cover on too many occasions this season, and given what Michigan did to Penn State, I can’t make the same mistake this weekend. I have Ohio State winning 41-21, even in a hostile environment in Happy Valley. With the tear Julian Fleming’s been on since coming back from injury in Week 3, I’ll slot him in as my MVP as he returns to his home state and appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough performance if given a few more targets in the passing game. In the run game, I’ll give Ohio State 197 yards in a return to form that stops short of utter domination against Penn State.
Kyle: I am expecting a 38-17 OSU win with Marvin Harrison Jr. posting another gaudy stat line in his personal homecoming game. The Buckeyes crack 150 yards rushing thanks to a couple of physical drives in the second half that take advantage of a defense that has already been picked apart by Stroud.
