After weeks upon weeks of mock drafts and rumors taking flight, we’ve finally reached draft day.
Thursday will commence what I consider to be college football’s graduation day, as NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will arrive at the podium in Kansas City to start the league’s draft at approximately 8 p.m.
So mere hours before the most exciting rendition of a man reading 31 names from a piece of paper begins, it’s time to shell out some bold predictions that have a terrific chance of being horribly wrong.
And remember, these are supposed to be bold, so we’re going to go a little out there on some of these. If you want something that’s more realistic, I’d recommend checking out Dan Hope’s 31-pick first-round mock draft plus his best guess of all OSU players’ destinations.
But for now, let’s get bold.
Paris Johnson Jr. will be taken before C.J. Stroud
This idea would have gotten you laughed out of the room if you brought it up at Ohio State’s pro day in March when basically the entire Carolina Panthers’ contingent was there to check out C.J. Stroud. But with each passing day, this scenario seems to be more plausible.
A common draft destination in mock drafts for Johnson is the Chicago Bears at No. 9, but in the last week, there have been some rumblings that he could be long gone before that. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is reportedly advocating for the front office to take Johnson at No. 3 overall.
FWIW word is Kyler Murray likes Paris Johnson a lot and has let that be known inside the #AZCardinals building. Johnson visited there recently. https://t.co/qxsDYrR9wT
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) April 24, 2023
If the Panthers go the expected route and take Bryce Young and the Texans pass on Stroud and take arguably the best defensive player in the draft, Will Anderson Jr., it could set up Johnson to be the first Buckeye drafted at No. 3 overall if the Cardinals can’t find a trade partner for that pick.
C.J. Stroud and Justin Fields will become division rivals
Any Ohio State fan will tell you the Stroud slander has gotten out of control the past few weeks, from his reported low score on the S2 Cognition test, to Brady Quinn alleging Stroud ghosted the Manning Academy, to who his agent is.
It seems the only negative storyline left to surface is if an NFL team’s private investigator reports to a general manager that apparently none of his teammates attended Stroud's 21st birthday party (That’s a Draft Day movie joke in case anyone was wondering).
But sadly, similar to Justin Fields' draft story in 2021, the draft subterfuge has a decent chance of working this year. The Panthers are reportedly set on Bryce Young (or god help them, Will Levis). The Texas seem to either not be sold on Stroud as a player, or are still REALLY pissed off at Deshaun Watson’s agent, David Mulugheta, who also represents Stroud.
It’s always possible a team trades up to No. 3 to draft Stroud, but in this scenario, I’m predicting Johnson will get picked by the Cardinals instead. Which naturally leaves a logical landing spot for Stroud at No. 4 to the Indianapolis Colts, which is where he probably should go.
But folks, have you seen Colts general manager Chris Ballard’s track record of trying to figure out the quarterback position the last three years? In the past three seasons, Ballard has brought in the deteriorating Matt Ryan, the hair-pull inducing Carson Wentz and whatever was left of Philip Rivers. How in the world does that suggest they’re going to get that pick right?
Instead of Stroud, the Colts opt for either Levis or Anthony Richardson, going with sheer physical upside over proven college production. This makes Stroud slide to No. 6 with the Detroit Lions, where the on-the-rise team opts to make the Ohio State product its quarterback of the future and allow him to sit for a year behind Jared Goff.
Oh yeah, and it would lock him into future head-to-head matchups twice a year with his former teammate Justin Fields.
Dawand Jones sneaks into the first round
At the end of the day, NFL teams primarily base their picks on both talent and sheer upside in a prospect. Dawand Jones perhaps offers the most physical upside of any offensive line prospect in the 2023 draft class, measuring in at over 6-foot-8 and 374 pounds. He also had the longest wingspan ever recorded of any Senior Bowl participant at 89 and 1/2 inches (nearly seven-and-a-half feet) and the largest man recorded at the NFL Scouting Combine.
While Jones hasn’t had a perfect offseason preparing for the draft (he didn’t work out at OSU’s pro day for an undisclosed reason and was hurt after the first day of Senior Bowl practices), some NFL GM late in the first round is bound to fall in love with his raw athleticism and make him the fourth OSU player taken in the first 31 picks.
Five quarterbacks get selected in the first round of the draft
When I did this piece last season, the quarterbacks in the draft were nothing to write home about. So much so that I predicted only two would be taken in the first round for the first time since 2015. As it turns out, only Kenny Pickett turned into a first-round pick from last year’s crop of signal callers.
We’re going the complete opposite way this year. When all is said and done, five quarterbacks will have heard their names called in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday: Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker.
