Before each Ohio State game, Eleven Warriors catches up with a media member who covers the opposing team to get his or her perspective on the Buckeyes' upcoming opponent.
Michigan
wolverines
There's certainly no shortage of topics to discuss this week, as Michigan beat reporter Alejandro Zúñiga of 247Sports joins us to discuss the Wolverines' sign-stealing scandal, Jim Harbaugh and the production of J.J. McCarthy two days before The Game.
I’m sure you’ve had a helluva month covering Michigan's sign-stealing scandal. So, let’s start with the question everyone wants to know. From what you’ve gathered, how much of an advantage do you believe Michigan gained from the start of the 2021 season until now from Connor Stalions’ alleged “vast network of spies,” especially coming off a down year in 2020?
Alejandro Zúñiga: I think Michigan, like many other programs, has been successful at gaining an in-game advantage by decoding other team’s signs. That is neither rare nor illegal in college football.
The current allegations regarding advanced scouting suggest that Michigan may have had more of an advantage than other programs that followed the NCAA rules. How much of an advantage did Michigan gain by apparently obtaining in-game video from the stands to ascertain opponent signals versus using all-22 and broadcast footage to achieve the same goals? That’s the big question, and I don’t know that anyone has that answer.
When looking specifically at the improvements Michigan made in 2021, I would be much more inclined to attribute them to a complete overhaul in staff – a new defensive coordinator, a new running backs coach, a new linebackers coach, a new receivers coach, a new defensive backs coach, among several other changes – combined with elite talent (e.g. Aidan Hutchinson).
With how public the scandal has been, I imagine this has taken a toll on the coaching staff and players, especially considering linebackers coach Chris Patridge lost his job over it. What’s been the mood around the team that you’ve seen as the chaos continues to rage on?
Zúñiga: Players and coaches will say publicly that they are “controlling the controllables,” having “a one-track mind on football,” and “keeping the main thing the main thing” – all the clichés that everyone has heard dozens of times. That’s what they have to say, and I don’t doubt that they believe it. But at the same time, it’s clear that players keep an eye on what’s going on. One look at the social media posts before the Penn State game (“Bet”), or the “Michigan vs. Everybody” apparel and it’s clear that the football facilities aren’t quite soundproof to the outside noise.
That Penn State game was clearly very emotional for Sherrone Moore and many within the program, and that’s a result of “the chaos.” The team learned that Jim Harbaugh would be suspended through a media report (rather than from the Big Ten itself), and they got to Beaver Stadium on Saturday unsure of who would be their head coach that day. The Wolverines weren’t impervious to the noise – but they still took care of business.
I understand why people outside the program find the “Michigan vs. Everybody” response silly. I don’t disagree with that opinion. But as we’ve seen with Kirby Smart and Georgia: If a team feels like everyone is doubting them, that can motivate them to do great things.
As of now, things do seem to have quieted down a bit, and all eyes are on the Buckeyes. And the nation’s eyes are on Michigan, of course, because they are America’s Team™.
While the Big Ten is likely done issuing punishments, the NCAA investigation is ongoing. Once the investigation wraps up, what do you think the punishment WILL be, and what do you think the punishment SHOULD be?
Zúñiga: I have no idea what the NCAA will decide, and anyone who thinks they know what the NCAA will ultimately rule is probably just guessing. For reference: Look at the punishment Kansas just received from the NCAA after a literal FBI investigation. The NCAA as an institution wields significantly less power than it did a decade or two ago, and the punishments it’s willing to levy seem to reflect that.
I also don’t know what punishment Michigan should receive, because again, this is a process that is just barely underway and we don’t know all the facts. If Michigan broke the rules, the program should be punished. Even if there’s no proof Jim Harbaugh knew – as the Big Ten has said – he’s responsible for what happens in his program and it’s reasonable that he face punishment.
In your opinion, does Jim Harbaugh return to Michigan next season?
Zúñiga: It depends on how the investigation proceeds. If nothing else, the past few weeks have proven how much backing Harbaugh has from the Michigan fan base, the athletic department and the university administration. That support is something he values greatly and could legitimately impact his future plans.
Before the season, I predicted Harbaugh would jump to the NFL in 2024. Even if he doesn’t win a national title this year, he has now accomplished virtually everything else — namely, pulling the program back to near-equal footing with Ohio State, winning the Big Ten, and re-establishing the Wolverines among the sport’s elite. Jim Harbaugh wants to win a Super Bowl, and the NCAA investigation makes me lean a bit more heavily that he might be inclined to take one last crack at the NFL.
All that said, Harbaugh is feeling the love from Michigan more than ever before. The U-M administration wants to extend him. So we’ll see if that happens in the next few weeks.
I suppose we can talk about the actual game, too. In your estimation, how much of an impact will Jim Harbaugh’s absence be on Saturday?
Zúñiga: I think it has an impact with J.J. McCarthy more than anything else. Jim Harbaugh is a former QB, of course, and on game days he’s a primary mentor and coach to McCarthy. I imagine his in-game observations and feedback are valuable and are missed with Harbaugh out.
Harbaugh is able to do everything except be at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, so game preparation should not be impacted in any capacity. And Sherrone Moore has been the play-caller all season (and last year, too), so that’s not new to him either.
I imagine some of the impact of Harbaugh’s absence is mental. He is the leader of this program, and the program has been molded in his image over the past nine years. It must be a little strange for players and coaches alike to not see him on the sidelines – but given this is the sixth time that’ll have happened, maybe they’re used to it.
Ultimately, my biggest question mark concerns Sherrone Moore. On Saturday, he’s the offensive line coach, the offensive coordinator and the acting head coach. That’s a lot on one person’s shoulders, and he has to sacrifice something – whether that’s one-on-one time with the line or thinking about play sequencing – when he’s also wearing the hat of head coach.
Offensively, Michigan has relied heavily on the ground game in Sherrone Moore’s two-game stint as acting head coach. Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy has looked somewhat shaky the past two weeks for whatever reason. Why do you think McCarthy’s on-field play has slipped as of late and do you see Michigan trying to primarily run the ball against Ohio State similarly to Penn State?
McCarthy went 7-for-8 against Penn State and Michigan ran the ball 32 times in a row to end the game. I don’t think that was a bad performance from McCarthy, especially since he contributed in the run game. Rather, that was Michigan realizing it had issues in pass protection (particularly the tackles) and could run the ball effectively. Once UM got possession with the lead in the second half, they knew they could play a field position game and the Nittany Lions would struggle to move the ball the length of the field against them. It was Iowa-esque, and it worked.
Maryland was a different story – certainly one of McCarthy’s shakier games. It was windy, he was a bit limited by injury, and top receiver Roman Wilson was out, so all of that may have affected his performance that afternoon. But I do wonder how much McCarthy is impacted by not having Harbaugh to give him real-time feedback, and I wonder how much play sequencing is diminished by having an acting head coach who’s the O-line coach and has a lot of responsibilities on his plate.
It sounds like Roman Wilson will be back for The Game, and I expect Michigan will feature J.J. McCarthy’s legs more than it did against Maryland. Both of those should help open up the offense a bit more.
What do you envision Michigan’s defensive gameplan will be? Attempt to pressure Kyle McCord and take your chances giving OSU’s wideouts single coverage? Or something else?
Zúñiga: I expect Michigan will try to play with a relatively light box against the Ohio State offense. The strength of the UM defense is the interior of its defensive line – Kris Jenkins, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant in particular. If they can successfully slow the Ohio State rushing attack and generate a pass rush without sending too many extra players, it will allow the Wolverines to sit back in coverage and at the very least prevent explosive passing plays. Grant and Graham are a pair of sophomores who have really impressed this fall, and they’ve allowed Michigan to collapse pockets without blitzing.
One of the reasons UM has been successful defensively since 2021 is that they can mix a lot of different pressures and coverage schemes. Long gone are the days of Don Brown with man coverage and a single-high safety; this is now Year 3 of the defense first implemented by Mike Macdonald. You’ll see edge rushers dropping into passing lanes; you’ll see a mix of man-to-man and zones. Pair that with an excellent pass rush, some savvy veterans in the secondary and five-star talent, and you’ve got the makings of a very good defense.
I’ll be curious to see if Michigan elects to shadow Marvin Harrison Jr. with its top corner, Will Johnson. The Buckeyes threw at Johnson with their first offensive play of the game in 2022, and the former five-star – then a freshman – held his own. That’s a rematch I’ll be fascinated to watch.
Regardless: Expect the Wolverines to largely go with a light box, particularly early, to see if it can slow the run game and still generate some pass rush without sacrificing an extra man. And mix things up in the back seven enough to keep a first-year starter uncomfortable.
Saturday will likely be one of the biggest games in this rivalry. How do you see the contest playing out and give us a score prediction if you’ve got one.
Zúñiga: This will be one of the biggest games in this rivalry’s history — no doubt at all about that. Given the stakes of two undefeated CFP hopefuls, plus the off-field animosity, it feels like everything has been ratcheted up to 11.
I have been wrong in predicting each of the last two years, so here goes nothing: I think this is a lower-scoring game than many people expect. We saw Ohio State and Michigan both struggle to put up points against Penn State, and I think both of these defenses are similarly talented.
I’m concerned about Michigan’s ability to pass protect, as the tackles – in particular Karsen Barnhart – struggled against Penn State and Maryland. I also have lingering questions about the UM secondary, which hasn’t faced a potent passing offense. Can Josh Wallace, the UMass transfer, hang with the Buckeyes? He’s been good this year, but the Big Ten has some rough QB play outside of McCord, McCarthy and Tagovailoa, and he had some issues against the Terrapins last week.
For Ohio State, I wonder how the linebackers and safeties will hold up in coverage against RB Donovan Edwards and TE Colston Loveland — particularly since there are some injury concerns at both those positions.
In a game where both teams will have to work their way down the field, I give Ohio State the better odds of breaking one or two big plays that would be game-changers. So let’s go Buckeyes, 17-14.
