In hindsight, there was no better timing for a Buckeye bye week than this.
Open Saturdays on a college football calendar always offer a chance for reflection, and some reflection is warranted after a 32-31 loss on the road to No. 3 Oregon last Saturday. Such a massive matchup exposes problems – and can create new ones (in the business we call that foreshadowing) – with even the best of teams.
The defense struggled at all levels and the Buckeyes shot themselves in the foot with penalties and a bad turnover. With a second half of the season that could include another top-five road showdown against Penn State, a currently undefeated Indiana team and The Game against Michigan, there are plenty of questions Ohio State needs to answer to rattle off six wins and likely get to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Eleven Warriors is looking at five of the biggest quandaries that will require an on-field response.
What level of play will the Buckeyes get at left tackle?
Josh Simmons' likely season-ending injury has left the Buckeyes with a dilemma at left tackle.
Josh Simmons achieved every ambition for the type of player he could become after transferring from San Diego State to Ohio State ahead of the 2023 season. After some struggles at the start of last year, Simmons took strides down the stretch and began to show the athletic traits that made him a quality prospect at the position. In 2024, Simmons was playing at an All-American level at left tackle for an offensive line that desperately needed a resurgence. He started generating early-round NFL draft buzz for himself.
Then he went down with a left leg injury against Oregon that is likely season-ending.
Zen Michalski subbed in for Simmons after he was carted off against the Ducks, and Ryan Day confirmed on his radio show Thursday that Michalski will start against Nebraska next week. There didn't seem to be a long-term commitment, though.
“We’re gonna go with Zen right now, but we’ll have some backup plans,” Day said. “We always have to have contingency plans in place. But the good news is you got Austin (Siereveld) in there and you got Tegra (Tshabola) who’s played some tackle before, you can move Donnie (Jackson) out as well and then you have Luke (Montgomery) ready to roll in at guard.”
Day's hesitation with Michalski might be warranted. The redshirt junior fell faster than Wile E. Coyote after running off a cliff from the offensive tackle competition in spring 2023, partially prompting the Buckeyes to pursue Simmons in the first place. Regardless of how much one weighs them, his Pro Football Focus grades were also abysmal against the Ducks, with a 37.6 in run blocking and a 24.6 in pass blocking.
The backup options for Ohio State include redshirt sophomore tackle George Fitzpatrick or one of Donovan Jackson, Tegra Tshabola or Austin Siereveld moving from guard to tackle.
OT was always considered the weakest position for the Buckeyes depth-wise. None of the options listed above figures to match Simmons' level at left tackle, but if Ohio State can't get at least serviceable play from one of them, it could be in for a world of hurt as soon as two weeks from now when it faces elite Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter. Carter already has four sacks in 2024.
How can Ohio State be more disruptive up front?
Speaking of sacks, the Buckeyes didn't record any against Oregon and there were plenty of plays where Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel got extended time in the pocket to work through his progressions and find open targets.
Ohio State is still tied for 19th in sacks per game nationally with 2.83, but it's about how a group performs on the biggest stages and part of why Gabriel threw for 341 yards last Saturday is because the Buckeyes didn't get home enough.
In the run game, Ohio State managed just two tackles for loss and allowed a season-high five yards per carry to Oregon. All told, the Ducks had eight plays of 20 yards or more against just two backfield takedowns and no takeaways by the Buckeyes' defense.
Better play is one thing, but as Eleven Warriors scheme guru Kyle Jones explained in his weekly Film Study, much of the difficulty was schematic. Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein came out with a great game plan to attack the Buckeyes and found new ways to attack when OSU adjusted.
While credit is due to the Ducks, Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles was a step behind in some of the examples Jones shared. What I'd like to add to his analysis of where Oregon took advantage of the Buckeyes' zone and man coverages, then also max-protected to help neutralize Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau on passing downs, is that the scarlet and gray could also benefit from mixing some fronts and pressures.
Ohio State's defensive fronts have been predictable, standard four-down lineman looks with the 3-technique defensive tackle off to the field. More odd fronts and unique alignments could be something to look into.
Sonny Styles and Cody Simon whiffed on some blitz opportunities, but unleashing Caleb Downs or Lathan Ransom into the backfield on occasion or even doing more to simulate pressures with zone blitzes or by showing blitz and bailing would be beneficial.
Also, where are the stunts? I can't remember the last time I saw a Twist (defensive end looping over a defensive tackle slanting outside), NOT (nose guard looping over 3-technique defensive tackle) or TON (3-tech looping over the nose) along Ohio State's defensive line. There are lots of situations where those calls can make sense.
One last note: The Rushmen package rarely works. The pocket just isn't collapsing to let the defensive ends get around the edge. I get that Tyleik Williams can't be on the field every play, and Caden Curry has done some positive things at 3-tech in those situations, but four defensive ends might not be the way to go.
Will Denzel Burke and the secondary return to form?
Burke's career-worst performance against Oregon has been belabored enough to this point after he gave up eight receptions on eight targets for 179 yards against the Ducks. Everyone who follows Ohio State knows he's capable of better. He's shown it. He's been a blanket in coverage for long stretches of his career.
This is also a Buckeye secondary that finished No. 1 in passing yards allowed per game last season, and they returned four starters while adding Caleb Downs. My personal opinion is Oregon surprised them with a more downfield-oriented attack in the first half after an offense predicated on short passes all season, then switched back to the underneath stuff once Ohio State adjusted.
One other tangential question: Where's the confidence in Jermaine Mathews Jr.? It's partially understandable a team wouldn't want to take out its top corner even after Burke struggled the way he did against the Ducks, but the sophomore Mathews has shown he's ready for those moments with performances like he had against Penn State last year. And maybe some rotation on the outside, given his skill set, could be useful for keeping bodies fresh. If you have the depth, why not use it?
Can the offense sustain its success?
Will Howard is off to a strong start to his Ohio State career, but more challenges lie ahead.
Ohio State's offense is humming through six games. The Buckeyes are No. 6 in the country for both scoring and total offense and fresh off a strong 467-yard, 31-point performance against one of the better defenses in the country.
That does come with the caveat that OSU had a season-worst rushing performance with just 4.3 yards per carry (still better than its season average in 2023) and a first-half fumble that gave the team its first negative turnover margin against a Big Ten opponent this year.
But on the whole, it's been a first half of the season answering questions on the offensive side of things. Even if he didn't slide down in time on the final play, Will Howard proved he was ready for the big stage against Oregon, completing 80% of his throws for 326 yards with no turnovers and only one sack taken. The offensive line has paved the way for the Buckeyes to rank No. 8 in the country with 5.9 yards per carry after they were 79th a year ago at 4.2.
The question is whether those trends can be sustained. Obviously along the offensive line with Simmons' injury, but it's more impactful than just finding his replacement. With how essential chemistry is to a front five, how Michalski or whoever sticks at the spot meshes with the rest of the group is crucial.
Howard is having a career year with a completion percentage of 73.3 and a yardage total that is already up to 1,574, with 14 passing and five rushing touchdowns against just three interceptions. But more great defenses are ahead – again, the Penn State game looms large.
Can the Buckeyes count on their special teams?
From an accidental fair catch on a kick return against Western Michigan to three straight kickoffs out of bounds against Marshall and a botched onside kick recovery against Oregon, there have been special teams lapses for Ohio State in the first half of the season. The Buckeyes will need to be able to count on those groups to avoid catastrophes in their matchups with Penn State and Michigan, et al.
Brandon Inniss has been a boost on punt return with 12 returns for 109 yards, but he's muffed a punt and his lone kickoff return went for just 14 yards to cost the Buckeyes some field position. Emeka Egbuka has also worked at kick returner after Inniss replaced Jayden Ballard following the Western Michigan game.
Joe McGuire has been consistently decent at punter, though he had one duck against the Ducks that traveled just 36 yards from Ohio State's own 34-yard line. Jayden Fielding is 33-of-33 on extra points and 3-of-3 on field goals but had those aforementioned kickoff issues, which a minor injury might have contributed to.
All three phases have questions to answer for the Buckeyes. They'll get back to work with their responses against Nebraska on Oct. 26, the first of at least six (the hope is seven with the Big Ten Title game) straight weekends Ohio State will play after its two byes scattered across the first eight weeks of 2024.
