Before each Ohio State game, Eleven Warriors catches up with a media member who covers the opposing team to get his or her perspective on the Buckeyes' upcoming opponent.
#3 Penn State
Nittany Lions
This week we're joined by Penn State beat reporter Ben Jones, who has been a frequent guest of Across The Field in the past few years. Jones, who provides independent coverage of the Nittany Lions, discussed the health of Drew Allar, the pressure on James Franklin and the offensive and defensive trenches of PSU ahead of the top-five matchup.
What a time for these two teams to be playing given the circumstances surrounding the last time they both played, right? That said, it feels like a lot of the narrative surrounding this game is on Drew Allar’s health. How essential is Allar to Penn State’s offense, and can the Nittany Lions have the same success if they have to turn to Beau Pribula, who played well against Wisconsin?
Ben Jones: I think in a general sense you don’t have a team lose its starting quarterback and shrug it off as though it doesn’t impact that team’s chances of winning. Beau Pribula is maybe (?) the best backup quarterback Penn State has had since Tommy Stevens in terms of a guy they’re willing to let do a little bit of everything, so in theory there’s a formula where Penn State can be successful with Pribula on the field but I don’t think that’s the same thing as actually winning. Penn State has done the whole “fake it with the backup” routine with Ohio State and that doesn’t work for long enough to actually win.
If Pribula plays, the question here is whether or not he was able to pass well against Wisconsin because of Wisconsin or because of his skills. Answer is a bit of both, but Ohio State is likely to give him less time, space and comfort to work with. Penn State has proven it can hang with Ohio State with all sorts of quarterbacks but Allar is supposed to be the guy that gets them over the hump. He wasn’t that player last year and didn’t have the OC to change — he looks far more like that player this year and has far more help in the booth to go with it.
Both head coaches are facing scrutiny for their records against top teams in the sport, and James Franklin certainly will hear about his 1-9 record against Ohio State more times than one this week. From our perspective, it seems like this is a must-win game for OSU and while it could be a statement win for the Nittany Lions, it’s moreso house money considering a playoff appearance is well within reach even if they lose this game. Is that a fair assessment, or is Franklin under real pressure (even if it isn’t from the athletic director’s end) to deliver here?
Jones: There’s never going to be a situation where Penn State fans are going to shrug their shoulders and just say “oh whatever, you lost to an existential rival, no big deal” but given the new playoff format and the fact Penn State made it through USC and Wisconsin and doesn’t have a super-obvious hurdle [maybe Minnesota?] the rest of the season, this is pretty close to it.
Obviously with a possible conference title opportunity on the line and Penn State with a not-awful shot at an undefeated regular season with a win this weekend, there’s plenty on the line either way. That being said [I think the 1-9 record is true but really should be viewed from 2016 on] there’s no question that Penn State will have to beat Ohio State on a more regular basis because that will be a marker of it becoming the type of program it wants to be.
All of that aside, I do think there is more pressure on Ohio State in this game than Penn State. End of the day, the new playoff format has to change how we view winning and losing, especially in a Big Ten that is only getting heavier at the top, especially if you figure Washington, USC and Michigan get it together again. Penn State loses it can still make it, if Ohio State loses the road is less clear.
PSU defensive linemen, especially Abdul Carter, must be licking their chops considering OSU is down to its third-string left tackle, which will probably be Donovan Jackson playing out of position. How critical is it for Penn State to exploit what could be a mismatch up front?
Jones: Games like these are usually decided in the trenches. You can point to a lot of areas where this series has swung, but the most consistent deciding factor is usually up front. Penn State won’t be thrilled if it doesn’t have Dani Dennis-Sutton this weekend and some bumps and bruises on the offensive front aren’t helping either. Historically I think you’ve seen teams be able to manage one or two really good players up front but I think Penn State’s ability to make the most of any perceived or actual weaknesses Ohio State might have will take help from all three levels. But yes, you don’t beat good teams if you can’t win up front. Who wins up front is an argument I think you can make for both teams.
On the other end, Penn State must have wronged JT Tuimoloau in a past life or something because he has the best games of his career against the Nittany Lions. I guess that’s a good way to ask, what do you make of PSU in the offensive trenches?
Jones: Generally this group has been much better than expected considering the departures to the NFL in the offseason. Some of this is simply how they have played, some of it is how Andy Kotelnicki has schemed for them. JTT is obviously the sort of player you just try and slow down rather than outright stop, but Penn State is more equipped for something like that than I was expecting. The hard part, especially against a player like JTT is that stopping him for 95% of the snaps doesn’t account for the damage he might do on the other 5% of those plays. As everyone has come to learn in this series, it usually hinges on three or four plays. He could account for all of them.
Former Ohio State wideout Julian Fleming was supposed to be a big addition for Penn State this season, but it seems Fleming has failed to clear a path for himself atop the depth chart, though he did make a few crucial plays in the USC win. How would you say Penn State’s wideouts have fared overall this season?
Jones: Fleming suffers from being one of those kids who could play in college for 10 years and someone would go “he was a five-star prospect!” There isn’t any question that Fleming hasn’t just blown the door wide open in terms of production but was there a ton of evidence that was going to happen? I think if you’re looking for that you’ll be disappointed, but if you’re looking for a guy who has brought veteran experience to a younger room about handling your business and lots of the little things he has been a great addition. I would also say he has gotten better and/or more comfortable as of late.
As for the wideouts as a whole, they’re not a strength but they’re less of a weakness than last year. It’s sort of funny to me that Penn State has always had one or two NFL-level receivers but as soon as it gets a high-end quarterback, the WR room becomes pretty average. I’m not counting Tyler Warren as a receiver but he clearly makes a difference in the passing game. As long as Penn State can run the ball, get Warren involved and have somebody step up on any given Saturday, that might be good enough for this team. I’m not sure Penn State makes a playoff run without them taking another step though. Trey Wallace is the best bet to do it. Omari Evans is also the fastest guy Penn State has to offer.
You’ve covered a lot of Penn State teams and thus have seen a lot of Penn State vs. Ohio State matchups. Do you think this PSU squad is better than past iterations that has underwhelmed in these games and are a legit contender for the Big Ten, or do you think they’ve benefitted from a light schedule so far?
Jones: If Drew Allar is healthy I think he has the tools to be the difference-maker. I also think Andy Kotelnicki has the play sheet to be a difference-maker. Last season Allar had five games with a sub 50% completion rate. This season he hasn't gone lower than 64.7% and has basically sat at 70% the past five games. I also don’t think this group is better than say — 2017 Penn State — but they’re finding ways to win and sometimes that skillset is more important than winning by 40 every time out. In some respects Penn State has benefited from a lighter schedule and other teams losing to get to No. 3, but Penn State is very much a Top 10 team and where it falls in that hierarchy doesn’t really matter anymore in a format that will let teams figure that out on their own.
And obviously, Penn State’s defense will need to show up off the rip.
What in your opinion are the biggest keys to the game on Saturday?
Jones: If Allar is healthy he needs help through the air and on the ground and I think Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are vastly better versions of themselves this year than last. Penn State is a Top 10 team on third down at 50% and has 10 scoring drives of 80 or more yards so far this season. If this group can run, be effective through the air and chew the clock they can win. If they get behind early, can’t get open and Ohio State can slow down the run, Penn State loses.
Finally, in this crucial game for both teams, how do you envision this playing out and do you have a score prediction?
Jones: It’s hard to pick Penn State to win this game until it wins one of them again. I think there is a very real-world situation that this game starts out like Penn State did against USC except Ohio State doesn’t proceed to soil itself the entire second half. Reasonably I think Andy Kotelnicki and a healthy Drew Allar are on the same page and that Ohio State has proven to be vulnerable enough that whoever ends up winning, won’t know they’re winning until the fourth quarter.
