Today is the day the entire season’s been building toward.
Michigan
Wolverines
Ohio State’s season won’t end today, but it will be at least partially defined by what happens today as the Buckeyes face Michigan in the 120th edition of The Game. After losing this game for each of the last three years, winning today’s game is the most important goal of the season for the Buckeyes even as they have aspirations to also win a Big Ten championship and national championship.
That raises the stakes on every question that surrounds Ohio State entering today’s game. It means the Buckeyes need their best players to be at their best today. And while the records would suggest that Ohio State should defeat its rival comfortably, records get thrown out the window when it comes to this rivalry, opening the door for anything to happen when the scarlet and gray battle the maize and blue this afternoon in Ohio Stadium.
With all of that in mind, we break down the biggest questions entering The Game, pick our top players to watch for the Buckeyes and make some predictions for what we’ll see in the Shoe on Saturday in our final Last Call of the regular season.
Questions
Can Ohio State establish the run?
The Buckeyes struggled running the ball in their first game without Seth McLaughlin, averaging less than four yards per carry against Indiana – a number that would have dropped to only 2.7 yards per carry extracting TreVeyon Henderson’s 39-yard run at the end of the game. Indiana has the nation’s top run defense, but running the ball won’t get much easier this week as the Wolverines enter The Game allowing just 94 rushing yards per game.
The team that’s won the rushing battle has won every edition of The Game but one since 2000, so the Buckeyes must have some success moving the chains on the ground. Despite the historical trend, I don’t think Ohio State necessarily needs to outrush Michigan to win this game – the Buckeyes should have a massive advantage over the Wolverines in the passing game – but Ohio State will leave itself susceptible to an upset if it can’t run the ball effectively in crucial situations.
– Dan Hope
What kind of game plan does Jim Knowles cook up?
In Knowles' first season as defensive coordinator, he was aggressive as he challenged Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy to beat the Ohio State defense with the deep ball. McCarthy succeeded thanks to some good throws but also some poor execution from the Buckeyes. In Knowles' second season, he appeared to peel back on the pressure against the Wolverines and allow his players to face the Wolverines straight up. Will Knowles be aggressive, conservative or some mix of the two?
– Chase Brown
Does the weather impact The Game?
The weather conditions in the Shoe will easily be the most adverse that Ohio State has faced this season. The temperature is projected to be 26 degrees Fahrenheit with winds of 10 to 20 miles per hour making it feel even colder. Such temperatures and winds could place an extra emphasis on both physical football and establishing the run while throwing an interesting wrench into the game.
– Andy Anders
If the score becomes lopsided, how much does Ohio State try to run it up?
If you thought people went into a tizzy over Ryan Day and Will Howard opting to score a touchdown late against Indiana, I can only imagine what Day will do to the scoreboard if the Buckeyes pull away in the second half. While I can't imagine they'd ever want to let up on the gas, I do wonder if they might pull some starters if they're up big considering they have a huge matchup with Oregon next week and you never know if Michigan will try and take a few cheap shots if it gets out of hand.
– Garrick Hodge
Players to Watch
Jack Sawyer
Fresh off a top-five win against Indiana, it seemed like Sawyer wanted nothing to do with talking about the win over the Hoosiers. Everything immediately moved to Michigan for him. The Columbus kid came back for another year in part to win this game. How does he perform when he gets a final crack at the Wolverines?
– Garrick Hodge
Jeremiah Smith
After a quiet game vs. Indiana last week and a snub from the Biletnikoff Award finalist list earlier this week, Smith is surely eager to remind everyone of his spectacular talent. With Will Johnson not expected to play, I don’t think Michigan has anyone in its secondary who can consistently cover him. Chris Olave (two touchdowns and a blocked punt) and Garrett Wilson (118 yards and a touchdown) both had spectacular performances in The Game as Ohio State freshmen; I expect Smith, one day after his 19th birthday, to follow their lead.
– Dan Hope
TreVeyon Henderson
As Dan mentioned above, the run games win The Game. This season, the Buckeyes have leaned on Quinshon Judkins to run between the tackles to record those hard-earned 2, 3, 4-yard carries. While Ohio State uses Judkins for the boom, it calls on Henderson for the zoom, and with Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant on the interior defensive line for Michigan, I think we will see a similar script on Saturday. Look for Henderson to break off some chunk runs in the Horseshoe – maybe even one in which he makes a house call.
– Chase Brown
Caleb Downs
The best players make big plays in big games, and Downs is one of the best defensive players in all of college football. Fresh off a 79-yard punt return touchdown that was Ohio State's first in more than a decade against the Hoosiers, expect the instinctive, physical, athletic freak to be in and around the box quite often as stopping the run is key to a dominant Buckeye defensive outing.
– Andy Anders
Predictions
Michigan passes for less than 100 yards
With tight end Colston Loveland trending toward being out, Michigan might not have a single pass catcher with at least 240 receiving yards going into Saturday. The Wolverines are 128th nationally in passing yards per game and tied for 132nd in passing yards per attempt, and that's out of 134 FBS schools. Meanwhile, Ohio State is No. 4 in passing yards allowed per game and tied for No. 9 in passing yards allowed per attempt.
– Andy Anders
Ohio State scores on its first possession
Ohio State has scored a touchdown on its opening possession in four of 11 games this season. While the odds aren't in Ohio State's favor, I believe the Buckeyes will come out of the gates with their blood already boiling, looking to prove that they are both the more talented and more physical team in this year's edition of The Game.
– Chase Brown
Ohio State pitches a second-half shutout
Starting slow has been a recurring trend for Ohio State’s defense in recent weeks, so I won’t be surprised if Michigan gets a couple of early scores, prompting another round of first-quarter Twitter firings for Jim Knowles. Finishing strong has also been a consistent trend for Ohio State’s No. 1-ranked defense, though, and I think the Buckeyes assert their dominance in the third and fourth quarters by holding the Wolverines to zero points after halftime.
– Dan Hope
Ryan Day says something fiery in the postgame interview
Day is normally not a person who gets too high or too low in a postgame setting following a victory. The lone exception was the Notre Dame game last year, when he defended his team's toughness. The Michigan game has been a cause of angst for him both personally and professionally the past three years, especially considering Michigan's sign stealing scandal. If Ohio State can snap the losing skid, I think you're going to see the emotion spill out of Day.
- Garrick Hodge
