By failing to qualify for this week’s Big Ten Championship Game, Ohio State has left its College Football Playoff fate in the hands of the selection committee.
Had the Buckeyes won The Game, they’d be battling Oregon in Indianapolis on Saturday for not only a conference title but a first-round bye in the CFP, one that almost certainly would have come with the No. 1 seed given that Oregon was No. 1 and Ohio State was No. 2 in last week’s CFP rankings. With Saturday’s loss to Michigan, however, Ohio State is no longer in contention for a bye and is now banking on earning an at-large berth.
The good news for the Buckeyes is they’re still a safe bet to make the inaugural 12-team playoff. With two wins over teams that are also in line to make the CFP (Penn State and Indiana) and only two losses, Ohio State is at no risk of falling outside the top 12 no matter what happens in this week’s conference championship games.
What’s less certain is where the Buckeyes will be seeded – and whether that will mean hosting a first-round game at Ohio Stadium or going on the road to play in another team’s home stadium.
We should get a better idea of where the Buckeyes stand in that equation on Tuesday night when the CFP selection committee releases its penultimate rankings. While the rankings will change one more time when the field is set Sunday following this weekend’s conference championship games, logic would suggest that teams like Ohio State who don’t play this weekend won’t change positions with one another after this week’s rankings.
If the CFP rankings mirror the AP and Coaches polls, as they often have so far this year, Ohio State would be in line for the No. 9 seed and a first-round trip to Tennessee right now, factoring in that the top four seeds will all go to conference champions. However, it’s very possible that the selection committee could evaluate the teams differently and rank Ohio State higher or lower than the polls.
Ultimately, Ohio State’s seed will depend on where it lands in the final rankings relative to Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and the losers of the Big Ten and SEC championship games. SMU could also factor into that debate if it loses the ACC Championship Game to Clemson.
It’s safe to assume Oregon will remain ahead of Ohio State even if it loses to Penn State on Saturday, given that Oregon was the only team to go unbeaten during the regular season and has a head-to-head win over Ohio State. The debate between Ohio State and Penn State if it loses the Big Ten Championship Game, on the other hand, would be an interesting one given that the Nittany Lions have one more win than the Buckeyes but suffered a home loss to Ohio State. And while the winner of Texas vs. Georgia is a sure bet to be a top-two seed, there could be some debate around where the loser of that game should factor into the at-large seeding.
With that in mind, we take a look at how Ohio State’s résumé compares to each of the seven teams it could end up jockeying for position with – Penn State, Notre Dame, either Texas or Georgia, Tennessee, SMU and Indiana – and look at the case for and against Ohio State to be ranked ahead of each team.
Ohio State vs. Penn State
The case for Ohio State: The Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions at Penn State, and their two biggest wins are better than any win Penn State will have if it doesn’t beat Oregon.
The case for Penn State: Penn State has 11 wins to Ohio State’s 10 and will likely be ranked ahead of the Buckeyes this week. Should the Nittany Lions really be punished for a second loss because they qualified for a game Ohio State didn’t? With their only regular-season loss coming to the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions don’t have any bad losses on their résumé like Ohio State now does with its loss to Michigan.
Assessment: I’m not a big believer in teams being punished for losing in conference championship games while others sit at home, but in this case it’s a valid data point for comparing Penn State against Ohio State given that OSU’s loss to Oregon came at Autzen Stadium by only one point. Add in the fact that Penn State lost to Ohio State and its best win is over a borderline top-20 team (Illinois), and the Buckeyes have a good case for being ahead of the Nittany Lions if they lose to Oregon in a neutral site much closer to State College than Eugene, especially if Oregon wins by more than a field goal.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
The case for Ohio State: The Buckeyes’ wins over Penn State and Indiana are bigger than any win Notre Dame has this season, while Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois is worse than either of Ohio State’s two losses. Ohio State’s strength of schedule ranks 26th while Notre Dame’s strength of schedule ranks 57th, per ESPN.
The case for Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s 11-1 record is better than Ohio State’s 10-2 record, and the Fighting Irish have been dominant since their Week 2 loss to NIU, winning their last 10 games by an average of more than 30 points. The Fighting Irish have seven wins over bowl-bound teams compared to six for the Buckeyes.
Assessment: While I believe there’s a real argument for Ohio State having a better résumé than Notre Dame when the entire season is considered, the Fighting Irish finished the regular season on a wave of momentum while the Buckeyes are coming off an ugly loss. That seems likely to tilt the scales in Notre Dame’s favor in terms of CFP seeding.
Ohio State vs. Texas
The case for Ohio State: If Texas doesn’t beat Georgia, the Longhorns will enter Selection Sunday without a single victory over a team with more than eight wins. Ohio State’s strength of schedule ranks six spots higher than Texas (32nd).
The case for Texas: The Longhorns have 11 wins to Ohio State’s 10, including a 31-12 road win over the same Michigan team that beat Ohio State in Columbus. Texas’ only loss is to Georgia, who will be a top-two seed in the CFP if it beats Texas again this weekend.
Assessment: Texas could be a polarizing team to seed if it loses to Georgia because of its lack of a standout win, but the Longhorns’ lopsided victory over the same team that beat Ohio State coupled with its additional win and lack of any losses to non-CFP teams should keep the Longhorns ahead of the Buckeyes.
Ohio State vs. Georgia
The case for Ohio State: Ohio State would have fewer losses than Georgia if the Bulldogs suffer a third loss this weekend, and Georgia pairs its two regular-season losses with multiple close calls against unranked opponents, including an eight-overtime win over Georgia Tech in its regular-season finale.
The case for Georgia: Georgia achieved the same regular-season record as Ohio State with a schedule that ranked as the third-toughest in college football this year. Its 30-15 road win over Texas is arguably the best victory in college football this season while it could have wins over as many as three CFP teams with its triumphs over Tennessee and Clemson. Both of its losses came to teams that also remain in the running for a CFP at-large berth (Alabama and Ole Miss).
Assessment: Georgia’s résumé is better than Ohio State’s after the Buckeyes’ loss to Michigan; the question is whether the selection committee will punish the Bulldogs for suffering a third loss in a conference championship game to a team it’s already beat. My guess is Georgia will be ahead of Ohio State in the penultimate rankings and stay ahead of the Buckeyes even if Texas wins this weekend, but neither of those outcomes is certain.
Ohio State vs. Tennessee
The case for Ohio State: Ohio State has two marquee wins while Tennessee has just one against a borderline playoff team (Alabama), and the Volunteers also have a loss to an unranked team that barely earned bowl eligibility (6-6 Arkansas). Ohio State’s strength of schedule ranks slightly above Tennessee’s (26th vs. 28th) with both teams having the same record, and the Volunteers have just five wins over bowl-bound teams.
The case for Tennessee: Both of Tennessee’s losses occurred on the road whereas Ohio State lost to Michigan at home.
Assessment: While Tennessee is ranked ahead of Ohio State in the AP and Coaches polls, the data suggests the Buckeyes should stay ahead of the Volunteers in the CFP rankings even after their loss to Michigan.
Ohio State vs. SMU
The case for Ohio State: SMU has no regular-season win that can compare to Ohio State’s wins over Penn State and Indiana. Ohio State’s strength of schedule ranks nearly 50 spots higher than SMU’s, which ranks just 75th.
The case for SMU: The Mustangs have only one loss to Ohio State’s two with SMU’s loss coming to a top-20 team in BYU.
Assessment: SMU has a better overall record than Ohio State, but the Mustangs won’t have any signature wins on their résumé if they lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. While their 11-1 regular-season record should keep them in the field even if they lose on Saturday, they’re unlikely to be seeded ahead of two-loss Big Ten and SEC teams unless they win this weekend.
Ohio State vs. Indiana
The case for Ohio State: The Buckeyes earned a convincing 38-15 win over the Hoosiers two weeks ago and have two better wins than any of Indiana’s. Despite playing in the same conference, Ohio State’s strength of schedule ranks nearly 40 spots higher than Indiana’s, which ranks 65th.
The case for Indiana: Indiana finished ahead of Ohio State in the Big Ten standings with its 11-1 record and beat the same Michigan team that just defeated the Buckeyes.
Assessment: The Hoosiers were eight spots behind Ohio State in the CFP rankings last week, and their recent head-to-head loss to the Buckeyes makes it unlikely Ohio State’s loss to Michigan will be enough for Indiana to make a big jump in front of OSU.
What It All Means for Ohio State
Unless Ohio State remains ahead of Notre Dame, which would be a surprise, the Buckeyes’ highest possible seed will be the No. 6 seed.
For the Buckeyes to have a shot at the No. 6 seed, they’ll need both Penn State and Georgia to lose and for the selection committee to decide both of those teams should be ranked behind Ohio State due to Penn State’s head-to-head loss to the Buckeyes and the Bulldogs’ third loss.
If the Big Ten and/or SEC runner-ups remain ahead of Ohio State, the Buckeyes’ hopes of hosting a first-round game depend on whether they finish ahead of Tennessee, Indiana and SMU (if the Mustangs lose the ACC Championship Game). The biggest threat among those teams to jump Ohio State is Tennessee, who also doesn’t play this week, so the Buckeyes should be well-positioned to host a first-round game at Ohio Stadium on Dec. 20 or 21 if they are ahead of the Volunteers on Tuesday night.
