Welcome to the Skull Session.
THE Ohio State University... THE Harvard of the Midwest.
Ohio State accompanies Harvard as the only Division I football program with a perfect multi-year APR as the school receives a cross-sport score of 989. https://t.co/vsYDBjz2wN
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) June 4, 2024
Have a good Wednesday.
THE ALL-POWERFUL INDEX. Following a remarkable offseason of roster addition and retention, Ohio State ranks No. 2 behind Georgia in several preseason top 25 polls for the 2024 college football season, including ESPN (Mark Schlabach), The Athletic (Stewart Mandel), Sporting News (Bill Bender) and more.
However, while humans see Ohio State as the second-best team in America entering the fall, computers have a different perception of the Buckeyes. Well, one of them does, at least. According to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, Ohio State is the fourth-best team in college football behind Georgia, Oregon and Texas. Here’s a description of how the College Football Power Index works:
The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team's strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game. (So that means Georgia is rated as nearly 27 points per game better than the average team, which is pretty good). Those numbers are then used to simulate the season schedule 20,000 times, including the conference championships and the CFP bracket, simulating the selection process using an algorithm that mimics the way the committee typically picks teams. Finally, once we have those results, we can say how often each team wins its conference, makes the playoff and achieves other milestones.
And here’s a look at how FPI ranked Georgia, Oregon, Texas and Ohio State, as well as Alabama, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Florida State:
| RANK | TEAM | CONF | FPI | PROJ. WINS | PLAYOFF % | CHAMPIONSHIP % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GEORGIA BULLDOGS | SEC | 26.8 | 10.3 | 78.7% | 20.7% |
| 2 | OREGON DUCKS | BIG TEN | 24.5 | 10.8 | 75.6% | 12.9% |
| 3 | TEXAS LONGHORNS | SEC | 22.9 | 10.0 | 67.7% | 11.7% |
| 4 | OHIO STATE BUCKEYES | BIG TEN | 22.2 | 10.2 | 66.8% | 10.2% |
| 5 | ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE | SEC | 21.9 | 9.3 | 56.7% | 8.4% |
| 6 | PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS | BIG TEN | 19.8 | 10.2 | 58.9% | 6.7% |
| 7 | NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH | IND | 19.0 | 10.1 | 59.5% | 5.1% |
| 8 | OKLAHOMA SOONERS | SEC | 17.2 | 8.3 | 36.8% | 3.0% |
| 9 | TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS | SEC | 16.6 | 8.6 | 36.6% | 2.6% |
| 10 | FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES | ACC | 15.1 | 8.8 | 36.2% | 2.5% |
According to the College Football Power Index, Ohio State is the fourth-best team in college football and the second-best team in the Big Ten. I think the computer reached that conclusion for two reasons: The Buckeyes’ question mark at quarterback and their strength of schedule compared to Georgia, Oregon and Texas.
Ohio State's offense scored 9.5 in the FPI, while Georgia earned 15.2, Oregon earned 15.4 and Texas earned 11.2. The computer acknowledges TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss and Jeremiah Smith as difference-makers for the Buckeyes. However, it offered the Bulldogs, Ducks and Longhorns an advantage over them because of their established quarterbacks, Carson Beck, Dillon Gabriel and Quinn Ewers, each of whom will be Heisman Trophy contenders in 2024.
NOTE: Ohio State's defense scored 12.4 in the FPI, while Georgia earned 11.1, Oregon earned 9.5 and Texas earned 10.7. The Buckeyes' 12.4 score was the best among teams ranked in the FPI's top 20 overall.
The Buckeyes' strength of schedule also impacted their score as FPI ranked Ohio State at Penn State (36.9%) and Michigan at Ohio State (36.5%) as the highest-leverage games on College Football Playoff odds this season. Ohio State at Oregon ranked No. 17 (31.9%) behind contests like Auburn at Alabama (32.0%), Alabama at LSU (32.1%) and Clemson at Florida State (32.45%).
Those two factors lead Ohio State to have less power than Georgia, Oregon and Texas – or so I think.
Regardless of where humans and computers rank Ohio State, it's clear the Buckeyes will be one of the best teams in college football this season. But if Will Howard (or Devin Brown) gets comfortable at quarterback and Ohio State gets past Oregon, Penn State and Michigan in the regular season, look out, the Buckeyes will prove to be much, much more than the fourth-best team in America.
INTERESTING... On Tuesday, David Hale of ESPN posted an article that organized all 134 FBS quarterback situations ahead of the 2024 season. Here are the top three tiers:
Tier 1: Cream of a Questionable Crop
- Alabama's Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson
- Georgia's Carson Beck, Jaden Rashada, Gunner Stockton
- Oregon's Dillon Gabriel, Dante Moore
- Texas' Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning
Tier 2: It's Tier 1 With an Asterisk
- Arizona's Noah Fifita
- Colorado's Shedeur Sanders
- Kansas' Jalen Daniels
- Miami's Cam Ward
- Utah's Cam Rising, Sam Huard
Tier 3: Checking the Upside Meter
- Memphis' Seth Henigan, Cade Cunningham
- Missouri's Brady Cook, Drew Pyne
- Ohio State's Will Howard, Devin Brown, Julian Sayin
- Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart, Walker Howard
Here's what Hale wrote about Tier 3, where Ohio State's quarterbacks landed:
The four QB1s in this group have — combined — started 119 games (at least 27 each) and thrown 217 passing touchdowns in their careers. They have the one trait no one can teach: Experience. They're savvy. They're veterans. They're leaders. That's the good news.
The question is, do we already know everything about these quarterbacks? Or are these quarterbacks capable of surprising us in 2024? When we've seen Dart, Henigan, Howard and Cook start games for top-10 teams over the course of years, it's easy to feel like we've got a good handle on just how good they are because, frankly, they've been pretty consistent in their performances. And, if we're being honest, that consistency puts them squarely in the "pretty darned good" group, which is a compliment, but for quarterbacks hoping to win some hardware, might actually feel like an insult.
Among returning qualified quarterbacks, they finished eighth (Dart), 11th (Cook), 13th (Howard) and 19th (Henigan) in Total QBR last season, which puts them pretty squarely in the B+ category. Again, that's great unless you really want that A.
It's certainly possible — likely, maybe — that at least one or two from this group will take another step forward. There are Joe Burrow stories every year (though perhaps not quite to the degree that Burrow did it). But if your goal is to get rich quickly in the QB stock market, these wouldn't be where you'd invest. They're the blue chips with a long history of marching forward in steady fashion. Again, that's meant to be a compliment.
That question, "Are these quarterbacks capable of surprising us in 2024?" For Howard, I think the answer could be "Yes."
According to Hale, 12.5% of Howard's throws beyond the line of scrimmage last season were to wide-open receivers, which ranked 112th out of 126 qualified quarterbacks. At the same time, Kyle McCord made 19.6% of his passes to wide-open receivers, which ranked 33rd. Since Howard became Kansas State's starter in 2022, 19.3% of his passes were to wide-open receivers, while Ohio State quarterbacks (C.J. Stroud and McCord) averaged 25.4%.
So, life should be much easier for Howard in Columbus than it was in Manhattan, Kansas.
If Howard can complete his passes to those wide-open receivers, I think the 6-foot-5, 242-pound quarterback's numbers (and record) could surprise us in 2024.
TOP-3 QB IN THE LEAGUE? I mentioned C.J. Stroud's name in the previous section and I will mention it a second time here. The former Ohio State and current Houston Texans quarterback appeared on the "Million Dollaz Worth of Game'' this week with Texans wide receiver Tank Dell.
Stroud and Dell discussed several topics with the podcast's hosts, Nasir Fard and Wallace Peeples. However, one that received the most attention was Stroud's top-five quarterbacks coming off the 2023 season. They were, in order: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, him, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts. (Stroud later changed the order to Mahomes, Jackson, him, Josh Allen and Prescott in an Instagram post).
C.J. Stroud ranked the top five QBs off of last year
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 1, 2024
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Lamar Jackson
3. C.J. Stroud
4. Dak Prescott
5. Jalen Hurts
Do you agree with his list?
(via @mworthofgame) pic.twitter.com/8Q3ZoCP56A
What I loved the most about Stroud's top five is that people didn't even question whether Stroud was a top-three quarterback in the NFL last season (he was). Instead, like Fard and Peeples, people argued whether Prescott belonged in the same conversation as Mahomes (the Super Bowl champion), Jackson (the MVP), Stroud, Allen and Hurts.
Stroud won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year last season after completing 319 of 499 passes (63.9%) for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also led the Texans to a 10-7 regular-season record, an AFC South title and an NFL Wild Card Round win over the Cleveland Browns.
In 2024, Stroud will return to Houston with new talent around him. This offseason, the Texans added Pro Bowler Joe Mixon at running back and All-Pro Stefon Diggs at wide receiver. They also drafted Stroud's former Ohio State teammate Cade Stover, who shined in his final two years with the Buckeyes. All three should help Stroud make his rookie numbers look like... rookie numbers.
Oh, and speaking of Stover...
JUST A KID FROM LEXINGTON. Last week, Cade Stover made a name for himself at the Texans' OTA sessions. The Lexington, Ohio, native stood out in 11-on-11 sessions and ended one of the team's scrimmages with two receptions, one of which came in double coverage.
Tight end Dalton Schultz said he was impressed with Stover's catches – and more – as the rookie enters June.
"I like him. He is a hardworking kid," Schultz said. "He is very eager to learn. He made some nice catches out there. I am excited for him."
Davis Mills to Cade Stover pic.twitter.com/y9s6EuLqVx
— Jayson Braddock (@JaysonBraddock) May 30, 2024
Schultz, a six-year veteran who signed a three-year contract extension in the offseason, said he hopes to mentor Stover this summer and fall as he acclimates to life in the NFL. After two months in Houston, Stover said he's already seen Schultz lead him on and off the field.
"Dalton Schultz is a great player," Stover said. “I’ve watched a lot of his film in the last couple of years. I could tell you a lot of what he does, especially when he was on the (Dallas) Cowboys. Now, to learn from someone like that and take notes and tips on how he handles his life, it will be awesome."
In two seasons as a tight end for Ohio State, Stover collected 82 receptions, 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns. He will look to improve upon that production at the next level. With Stroud as his quarterback and Schultz as his mentor, Texans GM Nick Caserio believes Stover can thrive in Houston.
"This guy is as tough and hard-nosed a player that they had in the program," Caserio said after the NFL draft in April. "He’s only played tight end for two years, so he’s certainly not a finished product, but he has the mindset and the work ethic to improve. How he was raised — this guy is everything you want in a football player and then more."
SONG OF THE DAY. “Riot” - The Scarlet Opera.
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