Welcome to the Skull Session.
NEXT UP... Penn State!
Next Game Up
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) October 29, 2024
vs pic.twitter.com/T1ivMYDwaV
Have a good Wednesday.
THE COMPUTERS! It's Wednesday. You know what that means. It's time to examine Ohio State's place in the SP+ and College Football Power Index. This week, I'll also include a look at how ESPN Analytics views the Buckeyes' chances to win the rest of their regular-season games in 2024.
SP+
| RANK | TEAM | SP SCORE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEXAS | 28.3 | 40.6 (5) | 12.6 (2) | -0.3 (107) |
| 2 | OHIO STATE | 27.8 | 38.7 (9) | 11.1 (1) | 0.1 (51) |
| 3 | OLE MISS | 27.5 | 39.6 (7) | 12.4 (5) | 0.4 (2) |
| 4 | OREGON | 26.9 | 43.2 (2) | 16.6 (15) | 0.3 (23) |
| 5 | ALABAMA | 26.9 | 42.5 (3) | 15.7 (12) | 0.2 (41) |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the SP+: Penn State (8), Purdue (99), Northwestern (79), Indiana (13), Michigan (27)
College Football Power Index
| RANK | TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEXAS | 25.7 | 30.7% | 31.2% | 74.4% | 15.3% |
| 2 | OHIO STATE | 25.6 | 29.9% | 26.0% | 73.0% | 13.5% |
| 3 | ALABAMA | 25.0 | 45.1% | 6.7% | 53.2% | 8.8% |
| 4 | GEORGIA | 22.9 | 13.2% | 19.4% | 84.4% | 11.2% |
| 5 | NOTRE DAME | 22.5 | 49.2% | N/A | 58.6% | 6.1% |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the College Football Power Index: Penn State (9), Purdue (112), Northwestern (78), Indiana (11), Michigan (39)
ESPN Analytics
| OPPONENT | DATE | LOCATION | MATCHUP PREDICTOR % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO. 3 PENN STATE | NOV. 2 | STATE COLLEGE, PA | 61.2% OHIO STATE |
| PURDUE | NOV. 9 | COLUMBUS, OH | 99% OHIO STATE |
| NORTHWESTERN | NOV. 16 | CHICAGO, IL * | 95.2% OHIO STATE |
| NO. 13 INDIANA | NOV. 23 | COLUMBUS, OH | 74.2% OHIO STATE |
| MICHIGAN | NOV. 30 | COLUMBUS, OH | 92.4% OHIO STATE |
| * AT WRIGLEY FIELD | |||
There was some percentage movement for each of Ohio State's remaining games from this week to last week. The Buckeyes decreased in favor for their matchups with Penn State (68.6 → 61.2), Northwestern (95.5 → 95.2), Indiana (77.8 → 74.2) and Michigan (93.9 → 92.4). At the same time, their favor remained the same for Purdue (99).
With Ohio State's SP+ and College Football Power Index scores in the Skull Session on Wednesdays this season, I can look back at the Buckeyes' ranks and scores week after week.
Ohio State has been in the top five in both metrics since the start of 2024, along with Georgia, Texas and Alabama, so it's clear ESPN Analytics sees the Buckeyes as one of the best teams in college football, with or without Josh Simmons.
I should mention that Ohio State took a hit in the SP+ and College Football Power Index this week, as the Buckeyes dropped from 29.1 to 27.9 in the former and from 27.5 to 25.6 in the latter. However, I should also mention that Georgia, Texas and Alabama – heck, even teams like Ole Miss, Tennesee, Penn State and Miami – took hits, too. So, while Ohio State no longer looks like the "national championship or bust" team it was promised to be this offseason, there hasn't been a team that's looked unbeatable since August.
Oregon, Notre Dame and Indiana have surged the past few weeks, but the Ducks needed two special teams touchdowns to beat Boise State, the Irish lost to Northern Illinois (!) and the Hoosiers have the No. 106 strength of schedule in college football. To Indiana's credit, Curt Cignetti and Co. have crushed their opponents and have the No. 10 strength of record, but the Hoosiers haven't faced a team as talented as Ohio State yet.
For Ohio State's purposes, we'll soon see if the Buckeyes still deserve their elite SP+ and College Football Power Index scores this week. A win at Penn State? Yes. A loss at Penn State? No.
THE BEST FIVE. I watched Zen Michalski use crutches before Ohio State's medical staff carted him to the locker room on Saturday. I watched it. Yet somehow, in a miraculous turn of events, Michalski could be available for the Buckeyes' top-five showdown with Penn State this weekend.
That's what Ryan Day wants me to believe. He also wants me to think that Michalski could start against Penn State – if he's available.
"If he can go, we'll continue to evaluate where we're at," Day said. "I don't think we've made a decision on that yet. Then we'll have to first see if he can go and then go from there. There were definitely plays in the game where he got beat. He was battling in there. But then once he got injured, that changed things.
"He did not grade out a champion in the game. He had some tough plays that caused some negative plays. But we know what we see in practice. We've got to continue to support him and make sure that he knows we have confidence in him when he goes in."
Maybe that's how it ends up. Maybe Michalski will be Ohio State's left tackle in the most important game of the season for the Buckeyes (more on that in a moment). But based on the quote I'm about to share from Day, I doubt it.
"You've got to put the best lineup out there," Day said. "You've got to put the best lineup out there and have enough not only just to win this game but also able to play the rest of the season. You've got to think of a short-term plan. Then, you've got to come up with a long-term plan. We'll do everything we can to win this game. That's where the focus is now."
After Michalski's performance on Saturday, I cannot fathom the reality that Michalski is one of Ohio State's top five offensive linemen. No, that honor – which doesn't feel like an honor at all – belongs to Donovan Jackson, Tegra Tshabola, Seth McLaughlin, Austin Siereveld and Josh Fryar. In a must-win game for the program, those are the five Buckeyes who need to man the trenches against a formidable front six.
"We're still working through it," Day said. "We'll see how the week works and see how Zen comes in today. We'll keep going through it."
Yes... keep going through it so I don't have to go through it on Saturday.
"WE KNOW WHAT'S AT STAKE." Day said Ohio State knows what's at stake on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. Like the Oregon game, the Buckeyes have had the Penn State game marked on their calendars since the start of the season. With a potential Big Ten Championship Game spot and more on the line for both teams, Day shared his expectations for his team's matchup with the Nittany Lions.
"We know what’s at stake here,” he said. “We’re gonna go into that environment and finish the way we didn’t two weeks ago. We have another opportunity to do that in this game. We've got to finish and win the game in the fourth quarter. We know it’s gonna take four quarters to win this game. It always does when you go play in this environment. It’s a very difficult environment to play in.
"But we’ve been in this situation before. Now it’s time to go win this game and get a top-five victory. That's what the guys are focused on right now and the coaches. Everybody in the building is focused on winning this game right here.”
Note that Day mentioned Penn State's top-five ranking. He knows the narrative surrounding him that he can't win big games. He has to. A competitor like him? His 2-7 record against AP top-five teams haunts him like a poltergeist. Day will look to rid himself of that narrative, or at least slow its roll, with a win this weekend.
"We've got to execute and win the game. That's it," Day said. "The statistics, the score —none of that really matters. Go win the game. That's the way it's going to be here Saturday at State College."
NO REPRIMAND HERE. The Big Ten has expressed its approval over how Ohio State handled fans who tossed their trash on the field after Arvell Reese's now-overturned targeting call in the Nebraska game.
"All Big Ten institutions are expected to adhere to the policies and procedures within the Big Ten Football Game Management Manual," the league told The Columbus Dispatch this week. "The security and protection of student-athletes, officials, coaches and staff is of utmost importance. The conference is confident that Ohio State staff properly handled the situation on Saturday and will have no additional comment."
The Big Ten's decision not to punish Ohio State for its fans' actions contrasts with how the Southeastern Conference handled Texas' bottle-throwing incident amid its eventual loss to Georgia. Within 48 hours of the game, the SEC fined the Longhorns $250,000 for their fans' actions; however, the number of bottles tossed and the length of delay were much lengthier in Austin than they were in Columbus. The SEC also required the Longhorns to suspend fans who threw debris and required the school to review its alcohol sales policies.
In a statement to the SEC, Texas apologized for the incident and promised that its fans will "continue to represent our university with pride and respect."
Following what transpired at the Horseshoe on Saturday, I hope Ohio State's fans will do the same.
SONG OF THE DAY. "Say It Ain't So" - Weezer.
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