Welcome to the Skull Session.
I need more Marvin Harrison Jr. and Paris Johnson Jr. #content from the Arizona Cardinals.
how could you not love @ParisJohnsonJr and @MarvHarrisonJr's friendship? pic.twitter.com/vjlHXsNPts
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) October 30, 2024
Have a good Thursday.
A BATTLE IN THE TRENCHES. Whoever wins the trenches will win the top-five showdown between Ohio State and Penn State at Beaver Stadium. That’s what Big Ten coaches who have faced one or both of the teams shared with Bruce Feldman and Ralph D. Russo of The Athletic this week.
Here’s what those coaches said about Ohio State’s offensive line vs. Penn State’s defensive line, as well as Penn State’s offensive line vs. Ohio State’s defensive line ahead of Saturday:
Ohio State’s offensive line vs. Penn State’s defensive line
One Big Ten defensive coordinator said the problem is Ohio State’s offensive line, even at full strength, wasn’t that impressive. Now, here comes a Penn State defensive front that stacks up fairly well.
“They’re ridiculous up front, particularly No. 11 (Abdul Carter),” one of the head coaches who has played Penn State said. “He’s a freak show.”
Another head coach said of the 252-pound Carter, “He’s a high-level pass rusher, maybe the best in the country. But you can have success running at him. They have some limitations at linebacker, in space, not on downhill runs, but in space.”
Both of those head coaches were impressed with the athleticism of Penn State’s interior linemen, including Freaks Lister Zane Durant.
Penn State’s offensive line vs. Ohio State’s defensive line
There is not a spot on the field where the Ohio State defense doesn’t have talent, and Jim Knowles’ unit plays with great effort.
“Just the motor those guys play with, the way they run to the ball, how they play every snap,” a Big Ten running backs coach said. “I mean, the violence.”
It starts up front with edges Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau and tackles Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton, who could all turn out to be top-100 picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Those four have 11.5 of Ohio State’s 20 sacks. Expectations for the group and the defense as a whole were sky-high coming into the season, so there’s a perception that unless they are racking up five sacks per game, they are underachieving. But coaches who have faced the Buckeyes say success against them requires a commitment to getting the ball out quickly and figuring out a way to double-team Williams and Hamilton in the running game. Still, as good as all those players are, none is a singular game-changer like some of Ohio State’s recent edge rushers.
“They’re not Chase Young. They’re not the Bosa brothers. They’re really, really, really good players, just different in that aspect. They rush with effort. They’ve got long arms … but they’re not as twitchy as what they’ve seen in the past,” a Big Ten quarterbacks coach said.
...
Reviews were mixed on Penn State’s offensive line.
“I didn’t feel like their O-line moved people, which was surprising,” a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. “We’ve played some good offensive lines this year that were able to lean on us and just fall for three yards. Penn State didn’t do that. They didn’t knock us off the ball.”
Outside of those areas, the Big Ten coaches weighed in on Andy Kotelnicki and Chip Kelly’s impact as offensive coordinators in year one, Drew Allar and Beau Pribula and, lastly, Will Howard. Most of the quotes were what you’d expect – Kotelnicki and Kelly are creative, Allar and Pribula have different skill sets but are both talented, and Howard needs “to be like a great point guard” for the Buckeyes to score points. However, I did find this quote interesting:
“If you took the Nebraska performance out, I would’ve said Ohio State wins this game by two touchdowns,” a Big Ten defensive coordinator said.
NOT GREAT, BOB! Ohio State is One of College Football’s Worst Teams at One Very Important Thing. That was the headline that made me click on a link from Alex Kirshner of Split Zone Duo. That one important thing was running the football in short-yardage situations.
Big shocker.
I almost clicked off the article and moved on with my Wednesday. I should have. I would have had a happier afternoon. Instead, I scrolled to read more about Ohio State’s lackluster performance on 3rd-and-3, 3rd-and-2 and 3rd-and-1. The information Kirshner presented was stunning, so I decided to share it in the Skull Session.
Kirshner’s article had three main points:
- Generally, Ohio State runs the ball well.
- In crunch time, Ohio State’s run game evaporates.
- What is the problem? Well, it could be a few things.
Kirshner stated that Ohio State ranks 10th among power conferences in rushing success rate (45.6%) and ninth in rushing yards per play (6.1). He also stated that the Buckeyes rank first in the Big Ten and fourth in the nation in rushing TRACR, short for Team Rating Adjusted for Competition and Roster, which measures how well a team performs based on its opponent. (The three teams ahead of Ohio State in rushing TRACR are Boise State – who has Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty – Kansas State and Kansas.)
Still, Kirshner has some concerns for the Buckeyes. This past weekend, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins were limited to 1.1 yards before contact, the offensive line allowed run disruptions on 58.3% of Ohio State’s attempts and the team posted a 21.7% run success rate.
Another area of concern for Kirshner is how Ohio State runs the ball in crunch time.
“How do you define crunch time?” Kirshner asked. “There are any number of ways. Overall, Ohio State averages 5.4 yards per carry, but it averages 6.9 in the first half and 4.1 in the second. Ohio State averages 4.2 yards per carry when the game is tied and 2.8 when it’s trailing.”
Kirshner admitted that we should expect Ohio State to run the ball less effectively when it’s draining the clock with a considerable lead or when the Buckeyes are trailing late, something that’s happened in only the Oregon and Nebraska games. But the numbers Kirshner shared are still troublesome for Ryan Day and Chip Kelly:
The Buckeyes have run 28 plays this season on third and fourth down with 2 yards or fewer to convert their set of downs. These plays say a lot about Ohio State’s belief in this part of its game:
Ohio State runs the ball 71.4% of the time in these short-yardage moments. The Power Four average is higher (75.8%) and many sport’s blue-blood programs opt for the run much more frequently than that. Ohio State’s two closest peer programs in recruiting, Alabama and Georgia, run 86.4% and 81.5% of the time.
Ohio State’s success rate when it does run the ball on these downs is 65%. The power conference average is 73.6%. Here are the programs with a worse rushing success rate in short yardage than Ohio State this year: Purdue, Maryland, Washington, BYU, Louisville, Arizona, Stanford, Washington State and Cal. Not the company Ohio State prefers to keep!
None of this is because opponents are doing anything special. Ohio State has faced a 50 bad box percentage (eight men or more in the defensive front). The Power Four average is 55.5%.
After Kirshner shared those numbers, he said, “The Buckeyes do not like to run the ball on the juiciest running downs because they are bad at it. Not ‘bad for a program of Ohio State’s stature,’ but bad by the standards of a power conference team.”
Oof.
“What’s the problem?” Kirshner asked.
But what he really meant was, “What’s the solution?”
There are two, with one being short-term and the other being long-term.
The short-term solution involves Ohio State being more creative schematically on 3rd-and-3, 3rd-and-2 and 3rd-and-1 situations. Kirshner shared that the Buckeyes run the ball as well on zone concepts (6.3 yards per carry on inside and outside zone) as it does gap plays (6.2 yards per carry on power and counter). However, Kelly has relied on the former concept far more than the latter this season, 75% to 25%.
The long-term solution involves recruiting, which, unfortunately, has no impact on 2024 – you know, the one where Ohio State started the season with national championship or bust expectations.
“The problem is likely not fixable this season,” Kirshner wrote. “Day needs to use the rest of a championship-caliber roster to get around the shortcoming of his own making.”
LIKE A 10-YEAR NFL VETERAN. One of the players Day needs to use on Saturday is Jeremiah Smith. The freshman phenom has 623 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns this season. With a standout performance in the Penn State game, he will break Ohio State’s freshman record for receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, all of which belong to Cris Carter from his rookie year in 1984.
When asked about Smith on Tuesday, Kelly called the 18-year-old “as serious a football player as I’ve been around” and explained that Smith’s “goal every single day is to improve.” Following a Nebraska game in which he received just four targets – which he converted into three catches for 70 yards and one touchdown – Smith will look to do just that in State College.
“There’s a maturity to Jeremiah that most freshman, or most people, don’t have, especially at that age,” Kelly said. “It’s almost like you’re dealing with a 10-year NFL veteran in terms of how he approaches meetings, how he approaches practice. And it’s rare.
"Obviously, when you meet Jeremiah, his physical skills are not even comparable for someone at that age, but I think it’s his maturity level that really sets him apart. Because there’s a lot of guys that could get caught up in the hype – everybody talking about him, all the people they’re comparing him to and all that. But you don’t see that out of him.”
Moments earlier, Day shared a similar sentiment about Smith.
“He’s been better every week,” Day said. “The way he’s practiced. The way he’s handled himself and his preparation on a week-to-week basis, taking care of his body, making sure he knows the gameplan, getting himself ready to play in these games. I thought for a young player he handled the environment (at Autzen Stadium) really well. He’s going to walk into another environment here, but he’ll be ready.”
Smith has caught a touchdown in every game he’s played for Ohio State this season. I think it would be really, really cool if that streak continued on Saturday against Penn State. Don’t you?
WHAT GIVES? It looks like Penn State will have a new-look end zone for the Ohio State game on Saturday…
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) October 30, 2024
After watching that video, I wondered: How come Ohio State never paints its end zones a different color?
For example, when the Buckeyes wore all-gray uniforms for the Iowa game, wouldn’t it have been cool for the Shoe to have all-gray end zones to match? It’s not that big of a deal, but it seems like something Ohio State should take advantage of when given the chance. But what do I know?!
SONG OF THE DAY. "Here For The First Time" - Juniper.
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