Power Rankings: Slotting the Big Ten Basketball Teams Seven Weeks Out From March Madness

By David Wertheim on January 26, 2021 at 1:05 pm
Luka Garza
Jeffrey Becker- USA TODAY Sports
27 Comments

It is hard to believe that we are just seven weeks out from Selection Sunday, and provided all goes to plan, 68 teams will duke it out in the state of Indiana for the right to be the first NCAA basketball champion since 2019. 

The Big Ten has been widely crooned as the country's best basketball conference this year, and I will make a probably foolish attempt to rank the conference's 14 teams from bottom to top. 

14. Nebraska (4-8, 0-5 B1G)

The conference's only winless team, Nebrasketball is a shoe-in for the bottom slot.

Former Iowa State and NBA head coach Fred Hoiberg is now in his second year as the head man in Lincoln, and it hasn't exactly been much better than last year, when the Huskers finished 7-25 and 2-18 in conference play. This season, while they have been slightly more competitive, their best win is a 22-point victory over North Dakota State, and they haven't played since Jan. 10 due to COVID-19 issues.

It's easy to give Hoiberg a mulligan considering Nebraska's departures: 13 players left before the beginning of 2019-20 and another 10 left after 2019-20. It was so bad that the Huskers had to use fill-ins from the football team in last year's conference tournament. 

Nebraska will finish last in this conference. Hoiberg gets a pass, for now. Let's see how they do next year.

13. Northwestern (6-8, 3-7 B1G)

One of the things I don't understand is the love that Chris Collins gets. While he did lead Northwestern to their first NCAA Tournament appearance ever (which should be talked about more... how does a Power Five school have ONE tournament appearance in 81 years?), sandwiched around that appearance are five losing seasons. And now the Wildcats seem poised for a sixth.

Basically, I'm implying that Collins was a blind squirrel who found a nut when he led the Wildcats to the 2018 Big Dance. This year's squad has a nice win over No. 13 Ohio State but their victory over Michigan State looks less impressive with every game the Spartans lose and the Wildcats have lost their last seven games, including a recent defeat to Penn State, which is why the Nittany Lions are ranked ahead of Northwestern in these official, undebatable power rankings on Eleven Warriors dot com. 

The fact of the matter, though, is that despite having some pretty good players like Boo Buie and Chase Audige, Northwestern just can't win the games. I'm sure the Wildcats could find another coach to finish under .500 in six of eight years. They certainly have experience with losing. 

12. Penn State (5-6, 2-5 B1G)

Pat Chambers had finally figured it out: recruiting Philadelphia had become a success, and the Nittany Lion basketball program was on the come-up, winning the NIT in 2017-18 and they probably would have earned a tournament berth last year if not for COVID-19. 

Then it all came crashing down. Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins graduated, and while most of the other talent returned, Chambers resigned just about a month before the season due to allegations of player mistreatment, which started when former player Rasir Bolton made a claim that Chambers referenced a "noose" around Bolton's neck. 

After a fairly strong start under interim head coach Jim Ferry, including a 20-point win over then-No. 15 Virginia Tech, the Nittany Lions lost their first five conference games before COVID-19 forced some postponements. They have won their last two games, however, and will take on Ohio State in Columbus on Wednesday night as they look to keep the upward trend going. 

11. Indiana (9-7, 4-5 B1G)

There is nobody who has done less with more than Archie Miller. Despite recruiting five-star after five-star, Miller has yet to reach the NCAA Tournament in his four seasons at Indiana and could once again be on the outside looking in despite having several former blue chippers on this year's roster.

The Hoosiers didn't lose a whole lot from last year's team that may have made the NCAA Tournament had it been played, and added four touted recruits. That's a recipe for improvement, right?

Well somehow, through nine conference games, the Hoosiers are actually a game worse than they were this time a year ago. Save for a fluke win over Iowa, the Hoosiers have beat the teams they were supposed to beat (Penn State and Maryland at home) and lost to every single good team they have played (Florida State, Texas, Wisconsin, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois) and added for good measure a loss to Northwestern at home. 

At this juncture, unless Providence can sneak in, it would appear the Hoosiers have just one victory over a team that will be in the NCAA Tournament field – the aforementioned victory over Iowa. 

Trayce Jackson-Davis is really good, and gives Indiana a chance in every game they play. Rob Phinisee, Al Durham, and Armaan Franklin are a trio of experienced guards, and Jerome Hunter is an excellent weapon from behind the arc. Race Thompson is the glue guy every team needs. How is Indiana not better?

Indiana fans wanted Tom Crean gone despite making the tournament four times in his last six seasons in Bloomington. When is the end of the line with Archie? What will it take? 

10. Maryland (9-7, 3-6 B1G)

Another team that lost a lot from a year ago, Maryland has taken a somewhat-understandable step back from the team that won a share of the conference title in 2019-20.

Jalen Smith and Anthony Cowan departing has put the onus on a cast of other characters such as Darryl Morsell and Aaron Wiggins, and while the Terps have a nice trio of road wins against Wisconsin, Illinois, and most recently Minnesota, Mark Turgeon's squad has had a pretty hard schedule to date and has lost games against Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, and Michigan in-conference. 

Still, though, you don't win those road games by accident, and another test against Wisconsin (this time at home) will provide a true barometer for where the Terps stand and if they have any hope at reaching the NCAA Tournament. 

9. Michigan State (8-4, 2-4 B1G)

It's weird to see the Spartans this low. Tom Izzo has been excellent since taking over Michigan State in 1995, but this could be the year that he misses the tournament after 24 straight appearances. 

Sparty started off strong, racing to a 6-0 non-conference record with a win over Duke, but have struggled in Big Ten play, losing their first three games and then one to Purdue on Jan 8, which remains the last game the Spartans have played after having three postponed due to COVID-19. 

Losing Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman has understandably hurt, but Michigan State's roster still is not terrible. Aaron Henry and Joey Hauser have largely been what people have expected (at least in the scorebook). 

Tom Izzo is Tom Izzo, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see this team recover and make a solid run towards the NCAA Tournament. But for now, they're No. 9. 

8. Rutgers (8-6, 4-6 B1G)

It seemed for a while like Rutgers could finish inside the top five in the conference. The Scarlet Knights have lost six of eight after winning their first six, however, and while they probably aren't as bad as their recent stretch, they don't seem to be a top-five team, either. 

The good news is that being the eighth best team in the 2020-21 Big Ten is probably going to be good enough to secure a berth in the NCAA Tournament, but Rutgers is going to need a few big wins to cement its résumé.

They have a few winnable games coming up against Michigan State and Northwestern before taking on Iowa on the road. If Rutgers can win all three, they should lock down a spot. 

7. Minnesota (11-5, 4-5 B1G)

Another coach I don't get the love for is Richard Pitino. I know he's Slick Rick's son, but two tournament appearances in seven years is just not great at all. The good news is that he's got a solid roster lined up for this go-round. 

This year, the Gophers appear poised to return to the Big Dance, led by Pittsburgh transfer Marcus Carr, who would be a conference player of the year candidate in pretty much any other year. Carr is averaging 20.9 points, good for third in the conference, and 5.2 assists, which is second. Another transfer, former Drake big man Liam Robbins, has been playing above expectations, averaging 13.3 points and 6.9 rebounds. 

Minnesota has been up-and-down as of late, but wins over Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan cement them as a legitimate team that has a chance to make a run in March. If they can become more consistent, they could easily find themselves as a top-four seed on Selection Sunday. 

6. Illinois (10-5, 6-3 B1G)

Brad Underwood's team is similar to Indiana's in that there are five-stars up and down the roster but can't seem to get over the hump. 

Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu are two of the Big Ten's best players, and Giorgi Bezhanishvili has been in school since 2005. Point guard Trent Frazier is another very nice piece, and freshmen Andre Curbelo and Adam Miller have been playing some solid basketball in their debut seasons.

Yet, they may still be just a little too young. It looks like this is going to be the collegiate swan song for Dosunmu, who surprised many by coming back this year, and Underwood needs to try and take advantage of that. 

Illinois hasn't really beat anyone very good, but they don't exactly have any bad losses this year. That seems to be a theme for many in the Big Ten. The Illini play Iowa on Friday in what should be a very fun game and a big test for Underwood's bunch. 

It is definitely possible that Illinois makes a run and finishes as a top-three seed. After all, they were ranked as high as No. 5 this year. 

5. Wisconsin (12-4, 6-3 B1G)

It feels like Wisconsin just trots out the same team year after year. And once again, this team finds itself in the top four of the Big Ten standings, but fifth in the power rankings due to their recent loss to Ohio State.

Micah Potter has somehow turned himself into a really good basketball player since transferring from Columbus, while Brad Davison has turned himself into store-brand Aaron Craft, except with a little more groin kicking and a little less production. Nate Reuvers has struggled of late, and a potential turnaround would be critical if the Badgers want to make any kind of run in March. Redshirt senior D'Mitrik Trice is playing like a Big Ten redshirt senior should, while complimentary pieces Tyler Wahl, Aleem Ford, and Trevor Anderson provide good minutes.

Wisconsin is just a generally solid team with a couple nice wins (Louisville, Minnesota) and only one bad loss (Maryland at home). They've got two road games against Maryland and Penn State up next.

4. Ohio State (12-4, 6-4 B1G)

I wrestled with putting the Buckeyes fourth or third, but ultimately Purdue (spoiler alert!) will get the third spot due to their two head-to-head wins over Ohio State.

Chris Holtmann, as always, has overachieved with this group. A cast of characters which doesn't really feature a true star or a big man has been able to ride good outside shooting to impressive victories over UCLA (neutral site) and Illinois and Wisconsin on the road. The Buckeyes have a couple of bad losses, headlined by a one-point defeat to Northwestern and two close ones against Purdue.

Obviously, a major issue for Ohio State is how they are going to defend big men. Minnesota's Liam Robbins torched them for 27 points, but they did a relatively good job on Illinois' Kofi Cockburn. It will be interesting to see how Ohio State deals with Luka Garza and Hunter Dickinson over the coming weeks.

Another issue for the Buckeyes is their tendency to rely on the outside shot, and if that isn't falling, it can lead to significant problems, like it did against Purdue. But if the shots are falling, Ohio State can beat almost anyone. 

3. Purdue (11-6, 6-4 B1G)

Purdue has a fascinating roster. Inside, Zach Edey is a 7'4 stick freshman and Trevion Williams is a 6'10 bruiser. Meanwhile, Sasha Stephanovic looks like he is playing Sunday morning hoops at the rec while knocking down every single shot.

Whatever it is, it seems to be working for Matt Painter as the Boilermakers are poised to return to the NCAA Tournament once again. 

Outside of maybe a road win over Ohio State, the Boilermakers can be argued as another team that has won all of the games they were supposed to win and lost all of the games they were supposed to lose. Purdue's four Big Ten losses have come to three ranked teams on the road, and Michigan at home. Not really any bad losses, outside of Miami (FL) out of conference.

Purdue has depth and is a team that can beat anyone on any given night. The fact that the NCAA Tournament will be played in Indiana (and partially at Mackey Arena) only helps their cause. 

2. Iowa (12-3, 6-2 B1G)

Luka Garza is going to win Big Ten Player of the Year and probably should win the Naismith as well after he was snubbed for Obi Toppin last year. This is easily Fran McCaffery best team in his 11 seasons, led by Garza who is averaging 26.9 points and 8.9 rebounds as a senior.

Fellow senior Jordan Bohannon leads the club with 4.7 assists and is chipping in 9.8 points of his own, while junior Iowa native Joe Wieskamp is averaging 14.5 points. A trio of solid guards, Pat and Connor McCaffery along with C.J. Frederick, provide depth alongside backup big man Jack Nunge. 

Iowa just keep winning games, although they did suffer a hiccup at home against Indiana in their last outing. For now, they'll keep the No. 2 spot in these rankings, as it seems clear that as long as Garza is on the floor, they can beat anyone. Their next two games are big ones: at Illinois, vs. Ohio State. A 2-0 showing would go a long way towards earning a top-two seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

1. Michigan (13-1, 8-1 B1G)

Everyone knew that Juwan Howard was going to recruit better than John Beilein, but his overall coaching was a question mark as he had zero head coaching experience coming into his tenure at his alma mater.

After a 19-12 showing last year that probably would have still been enough for the NCAA Tournament, Howard went out and recruited three really good prospects plus two graduate transfers to fill out a roster that already featured Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers.

True freshman big man Hunter Dickinson leads the way with 15.1 points and 7.2 rebounds, while Columbia graduate transfer Mike Smith has been excellent as the point guard, averaging 5.6 assists. Livers is second on the team in scoring with 14.6 points, while Wagner chips in 12. It is truly an all-around, solid team.

The Wolverines have just one loss all season, a road defeat to Minnesota, and have beaten Purdue and Wisconsin. Their schedule gets a bit harder down the stretch, with games against Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State coming in the last month of the season. Unfortunately, the Wolverines season is currently postponed for two weeks despite zero positive tests within the basketball program, so it will be interesting to see when and how those games get made up. Will Michigan have to play 10 games in 30 days? We will see. 

But you don't go 13-1 by accident, and for now, the Wolverines earn the pole position in these power rankings.

27 Comments

Five Things: Ohio State Leverages Stout Defense, Special Teams Edge to Easily Dispatch No. 5 Indiana

Will Howard

Ohio State Out to As Much As a 23.5-Point Favorite Against Michigan Ahead of the 2024 Edition of The Game Next Weekend

Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka
View 27 Comments