Coming off a Final Four appearance and returning most of their team, the Badgers were an easy pick to win the Big Ten. Now that the regular season has concluded, we can pat ourselves on the back and reflect on how dominant Bo Ryan's squad was.
Since 1996-97, only two teams won more regular season games than this year's Wisconsin team – 2004-05 Illinois and 2010-11 Ohio State each won 29 games. That's elite company for the Badgers, as those two teams won the Big Ten Tournament, were No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament and clear favorites to win it all in April. Their national perception isn't as strong, but winning in Chicago might establish Wisconsin as the hipster pick to beat Kentucky.
In this week's Big Ten Power Rankings, we handicap Wisconsin and the field as it relates to each team's chances to cut down the nets at the United Center.
Ladies and gentlemen, the #B1GTourney bracket it set. http://t.co/iVZKwY5HkF #MarchOnBTN pic.twitter.com/vTdzhqrN6s
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) March 9, 2015
1. Wisconsin (No. 1 seed, 28-3, 16-2)
Their first game will be against either Michigan or Illinois.
The Wolverines took the Badgers to overtime in their only matchup, thanks to Derrick Walton's last-second triple, but will not have the benefit of a raucous Crisler Center crowd in Chicago. Wisconsin has played the Illini once as well, beating them 68-49 in Madison.
It's tough to envision the Badgers losing, especially considering that they might get Traevon Jackson back. Their only relative weakness is offensive production off the bench and Jackson can help there – Bronson Koenig's ability to stretch the floor should keep him in the starting lineup. Anything can happen in a single elimination setting and opposing teams will just have to pray for a poor shooting game from Wisconsin.
They're the best offensive team in the country so that should not be the expectation. Four of the five members of their starting lineup shoot 37 percent or better from three. The one who isn't as proficient is this guy:
2. Michigan State (No. 3 seed, 21-10, 12-6)
Any team that hopes to beat the Badgers will have to keep pace with their torrid offense. The Spartans are capable, ranking No. 16 among the nation's most efficient offensive squads.
Michigan State will play Rutgers, Minnesota or Ohio State on Friday. It says a lot about the team's offensive depth – or maybe more about Indiana's defense – that they still put up 74 on the Hoosiers after missing nine free throws and playing without Branden Dawson.
The MSU senior forward says he'll "definitely" be back for their first game in the B1G Tournament but Tom Izzo isn't so sure.
"I have no idea," Izzo said, via MLive.com. "None. I hate to say it because you guys know I don't lie to you about injuries and I have no idea. I'm confused."
3. Maryland (No. 2 seed, 26-5, 14-4)
The Terps lost only four games in conference and beat Wisconsin two weeks ago. Still, some skepticism surrounds them.
Scroll down to the bottom of this list and you'll see Maryland, meaning their actual wins are significantly higher than their expected win total. It's a mathematical way of saying the Terps are the "luckiest" team in the nation. Based on their overall efficiency, it's easy to see why.
Sure, Maryland comes into the tournament having won seven straight games but rely heavily on Melo Trimble getting to the line. Will he be able to carry that into the conference tournament? I'd have them lower on this list but they'll avoid a potential matchup with Wisconsin until Sunday.
4. Ohio State (No. 6 seed, 22-9, 11-7)
Sure, a demoralizing home loss to Wisconsin is not an encouraging sign going forward, but no team below them in these rankings has a better chance of reaching the tournament final.
Like Maryland and Michigan State above them, the Buckeyes wouldn't play the Badgers until the championship round. They're certainly capable of beating the Terps – as was the case in January. OSU mounted a huge comeback against MSU in East Lansing, losing only on a last-second shot by Denzel Valentine. Those two teams are closer to Ohio State's caliber than they are to Wisconsin's.
As bad as last year's Buckeyes were, they still nearly beat Michigan, who went on to win the tournament. It's not inconceivable the Bucks get to Sunday, as they have done seven times in the Thad Matta era.
I consider the Wisconsin game an aberration, a result of a poor matchup talent-wise. Theoretically, if they had a healthy Anthony Lee guarding Frank Kamnisky, it wouldn't have changed the result.
Still, OSU's defensive philosophy would've been completely different. No doubling off Nigel Hayes with Amir Williams or leaving any one of the Badgers' sharpshooting wings open from three. I respect Jae'Sean Tate's strength in the low post but he's giving up half a foot against the national player of the year. Asking him to do that was completely unfair.
Anyhow, I'm confident we'll see the Ohio State band return to their enthusiastic cymbal-playing ways in Chicago:
5. Iowa (No. 5 seed, 21-10, 12-6)
The Hawkeyes enter the tournament on a six-game win streak, a strong close to a conference slate that began rather inconsistently.
Iowa righted things and sit in a good position to challenge Wisconsin in the semi-finals on Saturday. Though they lost to Purdue in January, the Hawkeyes are a completely different team since then.
Specifically, Aaron White has expanded his game. White has hit eight three-pointers during the win streak, which is almost as many as he had all season before this recent stretch. He has also scored 20 or more points in each of his last four games.
6. Purdue (No. 4 seed, 20-11, 12-6)
The Boilermakers played their way onto the bubble and, at the moment, into the NCAA Tournament by winning nine of their final 12 games.
Purdue's motivation to secure its bid this week might make it the most driven team in the field. The double bye is key, as I don't think it could have survived a second round loss in the B1G tourney.
Matt Painter's club will likely play Iowa, but an upset would result in them taking on either Penn State or Nebraska. The Boilers are looking at a potential matchup with the Badgers on Saturday – their only contest against Wisconsin was a seven-point loss in Madison despite shooting 51 percent from the field.
7. Illinois (No. 8 seed, 19-12, 9-9)
I don't envision a scenario where Illinois beats Wisconsin in the quarterfinals, but I am more confident in the Illini getting past the second round than in any team below them.
John Groce's squad opens with Michigan, a rare third matchup with the Wolverines. The previous two games went to overtime and the season series is split, with both teams winning on their respective home floors. They met a month ago in Champaign, where the Illini held the Wolverines to only two points in the overtime period and played without leading scorer Rayvonte Rice.
He's back now.
8. Indiana (No. 7 Seed, 19-12, 9-9)
Last Week: 68-60 loss at Iowa, 86-60 win vs Northwestern
This Week: vs Nebraska, at Purdue
The Hoosiers enter the Big Ten Tournament in complete disarray.
Michigan State tried to hand them a win in Bloomington and IU still couldn't take advantage. The Hoosiers remind me of last year's Iowa squad, which lost five of its final six regular season games, lost to Northwestern in Indianapolis and still somehow made the NCAA Tournament, inevitably losing to Tennessee in Dayton.
Indiana might not get so lucky, though: Joe Lunardi currently has it playing in the first round just like those 2013-14 Hawkeyes. Interestingly enough, the Hoosiers open the B1G tourney with Northwestern, a game they're by no means expected to win – especially considering Tom Crean's 4-8 record against the Wildcats.
Here's an analogy to describe Crean's job status:
Crean rebuilt the "House" then left the oven on and burnt the place down.
— Alex (@ACGates85) March 7, 2015
9. Northwestern (No. 10 Seed, 15-16, 6-12)
By virtue of playing the aforementioned dumpster fire, the Wildcats stand a chance of returning to the conference tournament's quarterfinals.
They lost two of their final three games after beating Indiana, but the Wildcats are equipped to do so again. I don't expect Yogi Ferrell to only score 11 points again, but I also don't foresee Bryant McIntosh only scoring four.
The real question is this: when Northwestern hits IU with a 2-3 zone on Thursday, will Crean just hand in his resignation letter?
10. Michigan (No. 9 Seed, 15-15, 8-10)
The Wolverines will play Illinois in the first session on Thursday's slate.
When the week began, the Wolverines hoped to hear good news regarding the injury status of their point guard Derrick Walton Jr. He seemed poised to return, perhaps leading people to believe he could ignite them to at least one win in the B1G Tournament.
As it turns out, he didn't play against Rutgers and his status for Chicago is highly doubtful:
On Derrick Walton Jr: Beilein says he won't play tomorrow, likely won't moving forward. Surgery might not be option, rest/rehab needed.
— Kyle Bogenschutz (@KyleBogie) March 6, 2015
11. Minnesota (No. 11 Seed, 17-14, 6-12)
If it weren't for a miraculous OT win in East Lansing, I'd be talking about the Gophers reaching near-Rutgers level of futility heading into the tournament.
Minnesota has still lost lost five of its last six games, three of which were at "The Barn." Luckily, the Golden Gophers draw the Scarlet Knights first, a team they beat by nine in January.
12. Penn State (No. 13 Seed, 16-15, 4-14)
The Nittany Lions will play Nebraska in the opening game of the tournament on Wednesday.
If Penn State wins, the squad will take on Iowa in the second round. Keep in mind, PSU took the Hawkeyes to overtime on Feb. 28.
Also, this D.J. Newbill character is capable of winning you a game or two when it counts. Just so cold blooded:
13. Nebraska (No. 12 Seed, 13-17, 5-13)
Tim Miles is racking up technical fouls at an impressive rate, and the Huskers have now lost eight straight games.
This is not the same feel-good story as last season. Nebraska couldn't even crack the 50-point mark the only time they played Penn State this season.
14. Rutgers (10-21, 2-16)
Luckily for the Huskers, Rutgers is proof that they haven't hit rock bottom yet.
The Scarlet Knights have lost 14 straight games, with their last win coming against – still inexplicably – Wisconsin.
